The Kerfuffle at the Key

As referenced by our eagle-eyed readers in the comments section, Danny Fortson has been suspended for two games.

It would have been nice to have Da Fort against the Suns, but, in all honesty, I don't think the Sonics will miss him too much. While I still believe he's going to be a key member of the team come playoff time, Collison's improvement and the up-tempo game the Suns always play add up to a night when Fort isn't that important for Seattle. Just in case you're wondering, I'm still picking the Sonics to cover the spread.

Game Night: Sundown

"I shall crush your beloved Sonics, Nussbaum, and then YOU!"

One night after a classic fight with the Kings, the Sonics travel to Phoenix to battle the Suns. At 9.5 point favorites, this is a chance for ALL of us to make some good money. Phoenix is below .500 against the spread at home, and the Sonics cover almost 60% of the time on the road.

Money business aside, this should be a great game. Two teams who want to prove their worth with everyone healthy. In their previous matchup, the Suns' starters all went for double figures, while the bench contributed all of 7 points. Nick Collison has come on since that time (he only played 2 minutes in December against the Suns), so even if Fortson gets suspended, Collison will help pick up the slack.

Good Sign: Karl Malone has retired! Let the celebration begin!
Bad Sing: Nash v Ridnour is not a matchup I relish.

Spread: Suns by 9.5
Predication: Suns 115 - Sonics 110
Record Against the Spread: 14-9

Game Night: Kings of the Road

"Play nice, or I'll throw my headband and cry!"

Great quote in the PI today from Jerome James, referring to how often opponents get angry with Reggie Evans and his brand of defense/rebounding.

"It happens all the time," Sonics center Jerome James said. "Hell, we get pissed off at Reggie in practice."

Great stuff. Well, the Kings have all sorts of reasons to be angry at the Sonics, not the least of which is Evans, who angered Sacto's Brad Miller to no end in the Seattle win last week.

Peja and C-Webb will be in the lineup, as will Ray Allen, so we've got some bona fide superstars on all sides tonight. We can argue the merits of Webber v Lewis on the all-star team until we're hoarse, and there's no doubt that Webber is the better player, but, hey, since when did the 12 best players make it to the All-Star team anyway?

I'm looking for plenty of points, a mouthy white center, some filthy passing, and the requisite matador defense from both teams. Should be a good time.

Good Sign: The Kings could be so angry over all their perceived insults that they'll forget about playing the game.
Bad Sign: You'd suspect that Sacto will try their damndest to avoid a season sweep from Seattle. Oh yeah, Adelman always freaks me out. He's so aryan-looking, I half-expect him to descend from a zeppelin before the start of each game.

Spread: Sonics by 4
Prediction: Kings 108 - Sonics 102
My Picks This Season: 14-8

The Disappearing Fort

We feel your pain, big fella.

Anybody know what's up with Fortson's minutes? Up 'til Jan 21 he'd been in double-figures every game, all year long. Since then the Supes have played 9 games and he's been below 10 in almost half of them (including a "Thanks for coming out" 3 minutes against the Bobcats the other night).

While I admire the Sonics for being able to win in spite of poor performances from just about anyone, shouldn't we be looking towards the future (i.e., the playoffs) here? Assuming the team remains intact, the only legitimate post presence on this team is Fortson (with the exception of Potapenko, and relying on him is like relying on Dean Martin as your AA mentor). And the playoffs - as we will all hear repeatedly in the next few months - are all about the half-court. What's going to happen when the 3-pointers aren't falling? I'd like to think the Sonics can utilize Fort's ability to get grab offensive boards, get to the line, and sink FTs with a phenomenal success rate come May.

I know Collison's improved game has led to his increased minutes, but who would you rather have in the lineup this May: Danny Fortson or Nick Collison? As foul-prone as Fort is, I'll take his enormous presence over the rookie's any day of the week.

Locke'd on My Opinion

I swear I hadn't read this column before I wrote what I did about Ray-Ray a few days ago.

In any event; Chief, how 'bout setting up a poll for whether the Sonics should trade Allen before the deadline? To make it clearer, the options should be:

1. Sign Allen for whatever he wants (i.e., $90 mil over 5 years).
2. Trade his 30-year-old jump-shooting butt for young guns, then pursure free agents in the next 2 years.

I'd do it myself, but I'm lucky to be able to find the '@' symbol, let alone figure out how to post a poll.

Whooo!

Ray Allen's going to have some company in Denver in a couple of weeks - and I don't mean Kobe Bryant kind of company.

That's right, Rashard Lewis is headed for the All-Star game.

I think this is a good opportunity to pause and think about what an incredible season this has been - first place in the division, home court in the first round of the playoffs, 2 guys on the all-star team - as Jimmy Johnson would say, "How 'bout them Sonics!"

Ultimate Fan!

You know kids, there is such a thing as liking your team too much:

LONDON (Reuters) - A Welsh rugby fan cut off his own testicles to celebrate Wales beating England at rugby, the Daily Mirror reported Tuesday.

Geoff Huish, 26, was so convinced England would win Saturday's match he told fellow drinkers at a social club, "If Wales win I'll cut my balls off," the paper said.

Friends at the club in Caerphilly, south Wales, thought he was joking.

But after the game Huish went home, severed his testicles with a knife, and walked 200 yards back to the bar with the testicles to show the shocked drinkers what he had done.

Huish was taken to hospital where he remained in serious condition, the paper said.

Wales's 11-9 victory over England at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff was their first home win over England in 12 years.

from Yahoo!/Reuters

Stats and More

A nice article on the Sonics' website regarding how the team uses statistics to help it make player acquisition decisions, written by the always-interesting Kevin Pelton. It's pleasant to see that Seattle isn't afraid to look beyond scouting to evalute players, but that they aren't so arrogant as to antagonize scouts the way I believe the Oakland A's have done.

In other news, this comes from the Chicago Sun-Times:

"Destined Hall of Famer Gary Payton of the Boston Celtics dearly wants to be traded to his fifth team in two years, preferably to a contender on the West coast. But his best shot at a deal is Seattle, which traded him to start with, unless Minnesota can entice Danny Ainge to take Sam Cassell in exchange."

Not sure who Seattle would be trading, and I honestly think the Glove wouldn't fit with the Sonics as they are currently assembled.

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According to the NY Daily News, Phil Jackson may be headed for Seattle. As much as I admire PJ, I'll take Nate, thank you very much.

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As to the debate over whether Rashard Lewis can lead the Sonics ...

"Rashard did a great job," said associate head coach Dwane Casey, who is guiding the team while McMillan is away. "He held them together. He was their captain throughout the night. He did a great job of rallying the guys together and made sure they stayed together when things got a little frayed."

from Seattle's game against the Kings last week.

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Looks like Ray Allen will be on the cover of the PSP NBA game. Or, you can buy the bootleg version with Flip Murray on the cover. Of course, in that version Murray's pass button only works when he is triple-teamed.

Down the Road

The clock is ticking on the trade front. The Sonics have about two weeks left to decide if keeping Ray Allen or trading him for some younger - and cheaper - players is the best option. Herewith is one man's argument for trading him.

It is always difficult to trade a player, and it is no less difficult when that player is at his peak, as Allen is now. That said, Allen is at precipice in his career, from which his statistics are sure to tumble into a range that will not reflect his massive salary.

In July of this year Allen will turn 30. Judging by a scan of 8 similar players, I expect him to have one, or perhaps two, more all-star seasons before sliding into a phase of his career I like to call "The Dale Ellis Years."

Here are the eight players I found to be most similar to Allen; that is, all-star shooting guards who were the best player on their team - for a period of their careers - and consistent all-stars:

Reggie Miller, Michael Jordan, Glen Rice, Ricky Pierce, Dale Ellis, Steve Smith, Allan Houston, and Mitch Richmond.

I broke down their careers into four phases - age 20-25, 26-30, 31-35, and 36+. No surprisingly, they all started out well in the early years, averaging as a group 18 ppg. From 26-30 they came into their collective own, improving to 22 ppg.

However, at the next level the decline began, as they averaged 18 ppg, before plummeting to 11 ppg at age 36+. In fact, the numbers will be even worse in a few years as Houston and Smith finish the 31-35 grouping and introduce the even lower ppg numbers they've been posting this season.

Folks, this is where we're headed. Say what you want about Allen, but there's been only one player who was able to maintain an all-star level from age 31-35 and that's Michael Jordan, and that's only because he dropped from another galaxy into merely the superstar level. Allen is already at the superstar level, meaning his drop will be to Jeff Hornacek-type numbers.

As the Sonics ponder their decision, I suggest they think about if it will be worth it to be spending $15 million a season on a player averaging 18 ppg, or if they would be better off trading Allen now, getting some cheaper players, and acquiring someone like Michael Redd in the offseason for the same amount they'd be paying Allen.

It's worth thinking about.

Jeffrey S, we salute you!

Jeffrey S. of Idaho is our new hero.

Yes, Mr. S made Supersonicsoul history recently by becoming the first person not directly affiliated with the site to buy a Supersonicsoul t-shirt.

God bless you, Mr. S, and may I interest you in a finely-crafted beer stein?

Gamenight: Sonics vs. Kings

The Sonics are in Sacramento playing the Kings. Go. Now. Watch.

So long, Ibby!

Oh Ibby, we hardly knew ye.

The man I once called the second coming of Detlef Schrempf, is no longer a Sonic. Sigh.

SEATTLE - The Seattle SuperSonics have waived guard Ibrahim Kutluay and activated guard Mateen Cleaves from the injured list, General Manager Rick Sund announced today.

Kutluay, 31, who was signed as a free agent on Sep. 22, played in five games after being activated from the injured list on Dec. 14. In 12 minutes of action, he grabbed one rebound and committed two turnovers. Kutluay became just the fourth Turkish player in NBA history when he made his debut on Dec. 22 vs. Denver. He missed the season's first 21 games with patellar tendinitis in his left knee.

from Sonics.com

Let's look at those stats again, folks: 12 minutes, one rebound, two turnovers. C'mon Sonics, I could put up those numbers for half the money! Call my agent!