Roy Smalley and Ray Allen

Back in the early 1990s, George Will burst onto the baseball book scene with the hilariously titled “Men At Work.” It detailed how Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken, Orel Hershiser, and Tony LaRussa go about their business, and while it was overly fawning of the main characters, contained some above-average reading material.

One section in particular stayed with me. Will was a fan of the Cubs as a kid, and the Cubs’ shortstop in those days was one Roy Smalley (senior, not junior). Smalley was a dismal hitter, yet Will vividly recalled the team’s announcers talking about how Smalley was “due for a hit.” Will argued that Smalley was never due – that he was just a bad hitter and wasn’t due for anything beyond a strikeout.

Bill James took up this argument in a different form, in regard to people “breaking out of slumps” in one of his annual abstracts in the 1980s. James’ argument was that even if someone goes 4-for-5 after weeks of 0-for-4s, it doesn’t mean he’s going to run off a streak of multi-hit games. It just meant he went 4-for-5 today.

Why am I bringing up all of this on a website devoted to the Sonics? Because there seems to be some sort of idea that Ray Allen has broken out of his 3-point slump because of his stellar 4th-quarter performance on Saturday against the Jazz.

After 3 quarters of play on Saturday, Sugar Ray was all of 2-for-9 from the field – flat-out lousy. Of course, in the final quarter he caught fire, nailing 4 of 6 from beyond the arc.

Does that mean anything, though? Why does one good quarter outweigh 3 lousy ones – or about 30 lousy ones if you count the previous half-dozen games? Is it just our desire for the universe to become orderly, for the sun to rise in the west and Ray Allen to shoot lights-out?

I’m sorry, but the last time Ray went 4-for-9 from long-distance he followed it up by hitting 10 of his next 46, the very slump he’s supposed to have emerged from in Salt Lake City.

I’m not an idiot – I know Ray Allen’s a borderline superstar and quite possibly the best shooter in the game. But something’s wrong with his stroke this year, and whether it’s the new ball, poor health, or jock itch is anybody’s guess.

Just don’t expect me to believe all is better because of what happened in the course of 10 minutes in Utah.

Nate Speaks

It's not every day you get a chance to hear an NBA coach speak only, and when that NBA coach is the most beloved player in Sonic history, it's worth a read. Ian Thomsen of si.com has a great Q&A with Nate McMillan on the website that goes into racism, the national perception of the Blazers, a quick bit on Nate's time in Seattle (and I do mean quick), and plenty else. Check it out.

Sonics (Phew) Win!

Was I the only one who sensed a somewhat frenzied, close-to-playoff atmosphere in the 4th quarter last night? Living in Vancouver, I was lucky enough to catch the 4th on tv last night (on Fox Sports Indiana, "Your Home for Pacers basketball and not much else!"), and the back and forth, every possession is crucial style was very exciting.

Of course, I live in Canada, and anything non-hockey related kind of gets my motor started, so who knows.

Anyways, Luke's clutch 3 and even clutcher (?) runner in the lane sealed the deal. And, his 2 non-clutch missed FTs with seconds remaining almost sealed it in the other direction. Regardless, I came away with the following from the game:

1. Mickael Gelabale DEFINITELY needs more playing time. The hair is good enough, but when you add in his energy, it's a no-brainer. See ya, Damien.

2. Earl Watson is becoming as important to the Sonics as the price of whiskey in Salt Lake City. Even in the 4th, it seemed he had nothing to do with the offense.

3. Seattle ran the clock down to zero way too many times in the 4th, resulting in craptacular heaves to beat the buzzer.

4. Fantastic offensive rebounding performance down the stretch. I can't count how many times Seattle kept possessions alive with clutch boards.

5. Rashard Lewis needs to take it stronger to the hole. I noticed two instances (one Clark Kellogg noticed as well) where Lewis went for the fey, avoiding contact move, rather than going up against Jermaine O'Neal and drawing a foul/dunking.

Well, enough of that rambling. What were the thoughts out there on the game last night?

Court Case

It looks as though the NBA's zero-tolerance policy on complaints to officials may be going out the window. NBA Union boss Billy Hunter filed two unfair labor practice charges Friday against the NBA re the new ball and the league's crackdown on player complaints.

Normally, you'd read something like this and say, "So what?" Except that in this instance, Hunter actually has a strong leg to stand on, in that the league never consulted with the union on the rule change, as it is obligated to under the current bargaining agreement.

I'd imagine the end result would be Stern & Co. backing off a bit on the no protest front, and allowing some more leeway to players. As for the new ball, I'm highly skeptical of anything changing, in that it would be a massive egg in the face of the league if they're forced to abandon something like this in mid-stream.

On a completely unrelated matter, Elton Brand is co-producer of Werner Herzog's new film, "Rescue Dawn," as well as 3 other films. According to Herzog, Brand was "the most reliable investor in the whole thing." (courtesy of Harper's Magazine, December issue).

I don't know how many film geeks read this site (with the exception of Paul, that is), but I'm sure they'd appreciate the utter surrealness of that last paragraph.

Jamaal Magloire: Yay or Nay?

You’ve no doubt read that Jamaal (“The Other Canadian”) Magloire is on the outs in Portland these days, and the Blazers may be inclined to deal him. As fans of a team with a dearth of talent at center, does it make sense for the Sonics to inquire about a 6’11” former all-star in the last year of his contract?

Yes and no. Here’s a brief rundown on the positives and negatives to getting Magloire.

NEGATIVES
1. Attitude. Magloire is working on his 3rd team in 3 years, and it would shift to 4 if he’s dealt. That’s never a good sign.
2. Poor foul shooter. This might be a fluke thing, but for the past 2 seasons Magloire has been abysmal. Like I said, it could be just a fluke, as he was solid at the start of his career and decent at Kentucky.
3. Not a great passer, when compared to Collison. Also has a higher turnover rate.
4. Makes $8.5 million this year
5. Not an especially agile defender.

POSITIVES
1. Gets to the line often (6.3/game for career/40 minutes), especially in relation to Collison (3.2) or Petro (don’t ask).
2. Playoff experience. He’s not Sam Perkins, but he has played 36 playoff games. To some people, that matters.
3. Solid defensive rebounder; again, his numbers are vastly superior to Collison. 4. Decent shot-blocker. Not as good as he was at the start of his career, but capable of blocking at least a shot a game if given 30 minutes.
5. Not especially foul-prone. This is something of big importance; both Collison and Petro attract fouls like Britney Spears attracts bad publicity. Magloire’s ability to stay out of foul trouble enables him to stay on the court longer, and keeps opponents from getting to the bonus so quickly.
6. Contract expires at the end of the season.

I look at it from this perspective – the Sonics are one decent offensive player away from contending for a playoff spot. Allen, Ridnour, Lewis, and Wilcox aren’t going anywhere, and who knows if/when Wilcox will ever figure out a way to get 15 points a night. That leaves the center position as the best way to add points.

Petro is not going to take this team to the playoffs at this stage in his career; if anything, he’s going to be a hindrance. Collison is inconsistent, and while his peripheral game is nice, he has way too many bad games to be a starter in this league.

Magloire is not a long-term solution for the Sonics, but he doesn’t have to be. He needs to keep the center spot warm for one season until Petro develops, and Swift gets healthy.

In my mind, putting Magloire on this team adds instant offense and catapults Seattle to a chance for the playoffs, a chance which is non-existent at the moment.

Here's how it could work: Deal Danny Fortson and another piece (Wilks, the Greek guy, or Desmon Farmer) to the Blazers for Magloire. If Seattle has to throw in a 2nd-round pick, so be it. The Blazers save some money, get a guy (Fortson) who they can hold onto and wait for his contract to expire, or deal away. Plus, they shed somebody who will start squawking because he's not getting minutes.

If Bennett and the Sonics’ new ownership is serious about keeping this team in town, they need to do something to create excitement. A 38-win team with no chance at the playoffs is not exciting. A 45-win team that makes it as a 7th-seed and a decent chance for a 1st-round upset is.

What do we have to lose?

~~~~~

Tack this to your wall and wait a couple of months for it to ripen:

" I'm not going to look over anybody's shoulder. I don't think that's right. I think when you hire someone to do a job, let them do it. But they know that I'm there, I'm available. I can help them in any way."

Lenny Wilkens, on Rick Sund and Bob Hill

Lenny Joins the Fold

The Sonics announced today that Lenny Wilkens is now their Vice Chairman (credit to sonicscentral.com for noticing this first).

Of note in the team's press release, "[Wilkens] will also continue as lead analyst on Sonics’ telecasts aired by Fox Sports Net."

Sorry, fans, you're going to have to endure some more of Lenny's ancient ramblings on how to play the game, except that now he knows he can't be fired.

MIA: Chris Wilcox

With all the talk recently about Seattle’s bench woes and the ugliness between Hill and Watson another Sonics’ dismal performance has sort of slipped through the cracks.

Try this on for size: Chris Wilcox has scored in double figures once in the past eight games.

To a casual observer, the fault would lie in the lap of the man making $8 million a year, the free agent acquisition that never performed prior to a salary drive in the spring. But if you look more closely, you can tell that it may not entirely be Weezy’s fault.

For some reason, Wilcox has turned into the Sonics’ version of a Saturday night television show on CBS – invisible.

After taking 70 shots in those first eight games, Wilcox has attempted only 49 in the past eight, a decrease of 21%. His rebounding numbers, minutes played, and all other peripheral stats haven’t changed, so it’s merely a matter of not getting looks.

It’s as if on the plane ride back from New Jersey, the team’s luggage – containing the secret ingredient responsible for the successful trip – wound up in North Dakota, while the Sonics continued on to the West Coast. Somewhere in Fargo, a group of kids stumbled across the magic potion, drank it, and are now contending for the state basketball title while the Sonics continue to lose at a Blazer-like pace.

Prior to the flight home, Seattle was averaging 39-for-84 from the floor and 105 points a game. Since the flight, those numbers are down to 35-for-79 shots and 94 points, while Wilcox has gone from 9 attempts per game to 6, and from 12 points to 8. It’s a shocking development, and completely unexplainable.

I can’t see what the root cause of the problem is, as it doesn’t appear to make any difference if Wilcox plays with Watson or Ridnour, so it’s not as if he needs Earl to play more so he can get more looks. It’s not that he’s not getting enough minutes, as that hasn’t changed one bit from the first half of the season to the second.

As always, the Sonics are over-relying on Allen and Lewis, and Allen and Lewis are getting tired of it. Sugar Ray’s comments in the papers the last couple of days seem to indicate a man frustrated with his teammates’ inability to produce. With Coach Hill’s statement last night regarding a new potential starting lineup, how about we offer this suggestion:

SG Allen
PG Ridnour
SF Lewis
PF Wilcox
C Sene

I’d leave Sene in there for 5 minutes, bring Petro off the bench, then bring Collison in with a few minutes left in the 1st quarter. That would allow Wilcox to get some rest and then actually play more than 2 minutes in the 2nd quarter.

And pray Sene doesn’t foul out in 5 minutes.

Notes from last night’s loss: Seattle attempted 8 3’s in the first half, 13 in the second and attempted 14 in paint in the 1st half, 9 in second ... The Sonics made one shot from the right side of the court in the entire game, a Ray Allen 3 in the second quarter.

Sonics-Magic

Top 5 Greatest Magic-Related Moments in Sonics History:

1. February 24, 2006: The Sonics stop at the wrong restaurant between Orlando and Miami, resulting in half the team getting sick, forcing Bob Hill to play with only 7 available guys. Ray Allen throws up on the bench, both from the food poisoning and from watching Mikki Moore get 27 minutes.

2. January 11, 2006: Ray Allen and Keyon Dooling throw down at the Key, followed by Keyon pursuing Allen into the hallway underneath the stands. Side note: Rashard Lewis drops 45 in 44 minutes in his greatest game nobody will ever remember.

3. March 21, 2004: Admit it, you have no idea why this game is on the list. My friends, when Vitaly Potapenko goes for 21 points, that merits inclusion on any list. Besides, any game featuring Ansu Sesay, Reggie Evans, Andrew Declerq, and Tyronn Lue has to be here.

4. January 5, 1996: This one is a little hazy, but I have a firm recollection of the events, if not the date. This much is sure: The Sonics were losing to the Magic in Orlando, back in the Brian Hill-Shaq-Penny days. With little or no time remaining in the game and the outcome no longer in doubt, Hill reinserts Shaq into the lineup for some statistical achievement. George Karl, sensing this and pissed off like only he could be, decides that he's going to put Frank Brickowski back in. 10 seconds later, Shaq heads to the bench as Brian Hill realizes his future as coach (i.e., Shaq's health) rests in the forearms of the Brick.

5. March 12, 1990: God, I miss the old NBA. Seattle scores 130 points and 7 Sonics score in double figures. Check out the point guards who played for the green and gold that night: Avery Johnson, Sedale Threatt, Nate McMillan, and Dana Barros. My friends, they call that depth. Bonus points for random Reggie Theus sighting.

Help!

Like most of you, I’ve been puzzled by the Sonics’ start to the season. The same team that nearly sweeps the Heat and Magic and destroys the Nets on the road loses to the Kings at home? How does a running team score 78 points? Whose hair is longest: Gelabale or Fortson?

Difficult questions, but let’s try to ascertain what’s going on in Sonic wins and losses. To wit:

1. Rashard Lewis is shooting 49% on 3’s in wins; 37% in losses
2. Johan Petro shoots 54% in wins, 35% in losses
3. Luke Ridnour hits 53% of 3’s in wins; 37% in losses
4. Chris Wilcox gets 9 FGA in wins; 7 in losses
5. Damien Wilkins averages a steal every 15 minutes in wins; every 30 in losses

There are more stats to look at, but I think it’s important to note that it’s unrealistic to expect Rashard Lewis and Luke Ridnour to hit 50% of their 3-point attempts this year. In fact, it’s flat-out impossible. Yet, unless they do, the Sonics struggle to score.

In looking at those stats, I’d recommend the following to shake this team out of its’ current 5-losses-in-7-games slump:

1. Give Watson more minutes. Earl is not as bad as he’s shown so far. For the same reason that Ray Allen is allowed to keep chucking when he’s hit 4 of 18, Earl needs to be allowed to keep playing. Now, that doesn’t mean Watson gets to take 3’s with 18 seconds on the shot clock, but if Hill can sit down with Watson and tell him that he’s going to be playing 20-25 minutes every night, regardless of the FG%, it will help the team.

2. Beat Wilcox over the head until he understands that this team needs him to take shots outside of fast breaks or put-back dunks. Force Ridnour to feed Weezy the ball down low at least once a quarter.

3. Allow Petro to keep screwing up. At this point, he’s our only legit big man. We have to pray that the good games eventually start to outnumber the bad.

4. Decrease Ray Allen’s minutes and allow Wilkins and/or Gelabale to play some more.

5. Finally, make up your mind with Danny Fortson. Explain to Danny that if he keeps his head about him, he’s going to get 10-15 minutes a night this year. The Sonics need a backup big man after Nick Collison’s graduation summa cum laude from the Benoit Benjamin School of Infuriating Big Men, and Fortson is helpful on the boards and scoring garbage points in the paint.

Easy, breezy. 5 Simple Steps to Make the Sonics Better. Tomorrow’s game against Orlando will be a real test for this team and the Bob Hill tenure as the coach. If the Sonics drop this one, and the bench fails to get the minutes they think they deserve, the sharks will smell the blood in the water.

Weather Frightful; Sonics Moreso

Frodo tries the matador defense on T-Park. Olé!

I know the beat writers have to look for interesting hooks, but the whole "Bench vs. Bob Hill" thing is a little bit overblown, at least from my perspective.

That said, this quote from Earl Watson post-game on why he was still running on the treadmill (courtesy of the great Percy Allen in the Times) is pretty good:

"Because I need to stay in shape and 15 to 20 minutes just isn't doing it for me."

Ah, sarcasm, the sign of either a very confident team, or a very cranky backup point guard.

I don't know where Hill is coming from re the bench, as it was the starters that killed the Sonics, not the bench. Considering the Spurs' bench outscored the Sonics' 29-25, I don't consider that to be the turning point. I do, however, consider that when two guys (Wilcox/Lewis) who average 33 points give you 15, that might be a factor. Or when your two point guards grab more defensive rebounds than your starting forwards, that might hurt a bit.

According to David Locke, last night was a "lesson" for the Sonics in "championship basketball." This is coming off Friday's "part of the evolution" of Seattle's defense. Just think, if the Sonics can manage to drop 6 in a row, they'll be smart enough to contend for the title!

Seriously, this team is the classic tweener: better than bottom feeder, not good enough for the playoffs. It's a sad recipe for disaster in this town, one that's been cooked for nearly a decade now, one that's been handed down from McMillan to Weiss to Hill. It contains equal parts poor defense, overreliance on outside shooting, and lack of inside presence.

I just hope Oklahoma City likes it.

Somebody Wake Kevin Martin Up

Who the hell does Martin think he is anyway? Nobody with a shot that ugly should score 31 in a high school game, let alone against an NCAA-caliber defense like the Sonics'.

Well, Martin killed Seattle last night, with an assist from Ray "Don't tell me to stop shooting" Allen. Hopefully, Allen will get out of this recent 3-point slump, and get back to being an all-star caliber shooting guard, 'cause he's killing the Sonics right now. Take a look at his 3-point shooting in the past 8 games: 2-8,2-9,4-11,4-9,1-6,2-8,1-8,1-6.

That's 27% folks, and that ain't going to cut it.

In other news, the official Earl Watson Sweepstakes has begun; I had mid-January in the pool, so I was off by a month and half. The Heat don't have much to offer anything to the Sonics that would match up well salary-wise, unless other teams get involved. Ideally, the Sonics need to get somebody big to either start or help the anemic bench, plus they need to add a backup to Allen, because Sugar Ray's minutes are out of control. At 40+ minutes a night, he can't keep it up for the whole year (and if you think he's always played this much, try this on for size: The last time Ray Allen averaged more than 40 minutes a game, Saddam Hussein was president of Iraq).

One night off, then the Spurs on Sunday. No rest for the weary.

Stuffing

There are few times I miss living in the States more than Thanksgiving. Canadian Thanksgiving is to American Thanksgiving as Canada is to America: A pale imitation. Nobody here seems to know why they have Thanksgiving, some people celebrate it on Sunday, some on Monday, and there's little if any tradition.

Plus, the only football on Thanksgiving in Canada is the CFL. The CFL's fun and all, but it ain't exactly the National Football League. So, while you're digging into your third helping of stuffing tomorrow and debating whether to fight Uncle Fester for the dark meat, send a sentimental thought north of the border to us poor, dislocated Americans who have to work.

With that in mind, here's a few random thoughts as we head for the holidays:

1. It'd be nice to see Seattle pull one out against the Clips tonight, but LA's undefeated home record has me thinking it's a little less than likely. Let's be thankful the Sonics have an extended home stand coming soon, with a delightful Hawks-Hornets-Warriors trio of games.

2. Surprisingly, Bob Hill did not emerge as one of the 5 coaches on the hot seat in an SI piece today. I'm not saying Hill should go by any means, but the Sonics' off-kilter start certainly has to have some wondering how long he'll last.

3. This is totally off-topic for a Sonics' board blog, but, hey, it's our site, right? I was listening to Dan Patrick on Tuesday, and he brought up the whole Michigan vs USC vs Notre Dame debate. Patrick's argument was that if SC knocks off ND and UCLA, they should be playing for the title, with the reasoning that SC's only loss would be against Oregon State, "and they're a bowl team."

Let me get this straight, Michigan's only loss came in a nail-biter on the road against the #1 team in the country, and somehow that's not as good as losing to a team that's going to play in the Las Vegas Bowl? In what universe does that make any sense?

Hey, I can understand if you're going to argue that two teams from the same conference shouldn't play for the title, and while I don't agree with that argument I can see the logic. But to say that SC's loss to Oregon State is superior to Michigan's loss to Ohio State is flat-out stupid.

Of course, as a Duck fan, I assume the BCS is stupid to begin with, so I guess that makes sense.