Why the Sonics Will Win

"Gasp! Chocolate! Ooh, half price!"

Since no one else on the supersonicsoulsquad had the guts to go head-to-head against the P-Bomb, it basically fell on me to take the opposing view in this two-parter. Me, chunkstyle, the supersonicsoul Fashion Correspondent/Production Artist. Talk about lambs to the slaughter.

Luckily for me, Mr. Nussbaum did me the favor of going first with his “Why the Sonics Will Lose” troll. This had the predictable result of fomenting the customary wave of dissension and controversy from people way more informed than I. Which gave me a nice foundation of commentary to build my half-baked notions on.

Like Paul mentioned in his Sportsbloggerlive.com interview, I too base a lot of my opinions not so much on stats as on gut and emotion. And is that so wrong? If you want cold-blooded, objective sports analysis, go somewheres else. This site is called SUPERSONICsoul.com, dammit, not HEYLETSCHECKTHEFACTSBEFOREWEMAKEUPOURMINDS.com. Yes, we’re Homers. Ain’t no shame in our game. Why the hell else would we do this?

I did make a few feeble attempts to back up my “Why the Sonics Will Win” arguments with some token stats. And came up empty. Much like my colleague Booth52’s recent failed thought exercise, the numbers didn’t support my theories either.

I was going to contend that since the Sonics already play a very efficient, low-possession style (totally biting David Locke here) built around their excellent 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding and low turnover rate, surely that style would serve them well in the playoffs. Throw in the Sonics superior defense and bench strength and it’s a clean sweep, right?

Turns out, most of those categories were a wash. Sure, the Supes have the edge in rebounding and turnover differential:

DIFF CATEGORY	SEA	SAC
Rebounding	+3.02	-1.9
Turnover	+0.34	-1.59

Big whoop. Though the Sonics rank only behind #1 team Detroit in rebound diff, the #3 team is Cleveland. Who led the league in turnover differential? The Los Angeles Lakers. So much for leading economic indicators.

Even what I considered the Sonics’ other advantages also happened to be areas in which the Kings are almost equal or better. Three point shooting? Dead heat. Opponent field goal percentage? Same. Bench production? Their bench contributed 42% of the points. Ours? 39%. No matter how hard I tried to get the stats to prove that the Sonics would undoubtedly prevail, all I could get out of them was a resounding “Eh, it could happen.”

So I got nothing. No proof, no statistical mumbo-jumbo to back me up. But something's going to prove to be the edge in this series. Hell, it'll probably end up being those time-honored and beaten-to-death Sports Cliches. Intangibles! Experience! Clutch...ness! And let's not forget the dreaded Who Wants It More! You can't tell me a supposed expert with a pile of stats is any more prescient than the Sports Cliches.

Here's what I'll do then. I'm just gonna go ahead and say what I think (hope) will happen, at the risk of being mocked later for how far off I was when the Sonics lose. Mm-kay? Greeaat...

Game 1 @ SEA: Kings 1-0.

The Kings make all the pundits look like geniuses by taking game 1 on the Sonics’ home court. The Sonics will fall behind, scrap enough to make you think they can come back, but ultimately fall short.

Game 2 @ SEA: Sonics 1-1

The Supes redeem themselves and even the series.

Game 3 @ SAC: Kings 2-1

In a raucous Arco Arena, the Kings dismantle the Sonics. Out of disgust, I turn off the TV in the 3rd quarter. Vlad-Rad returns, but goes something like 0-11 from the field. Here come the I-told-you-sos.

Game 4 @ SAC: Sonics 2-2

What’s this? Vlade and the Sonics catch fire.

Game 5 @ SEA: Sonics 3-2

In a triumphant return reminiscent of Game 6 of the 1993 Western Conference Finals vs. Phoenix, the Sonics blow the Kings out. No! Not In Our House!

Game 6 @ SAC: Sonics 4-2

The Maloof Brothers watch in disgust as the Sonics do their Sister Sledge huddle thing on the Kings logo. Arco empties quietly.

Sonics win in 6. Somewhere in the distance, I can hear Marge Simpson shaking her head, muttering.

Holy Crap! The Playoffs are here!

Quick, call Vegas! The Pope has laid out his playoff picks!

For those of you who were out visiting another planet this week, there was some rather big news occurring on earth. Yup, that’s right, the Western Playoff Seeds were set! Here they are:

Contenders, toe the line:
1) Phoenix Suns vs. 8) Memphis Grizzlies
2) San Antonio Spurs vs. 7) Denver Nuggets
3) Seattle Supersonics vs. 6) Sacramento Kings
4) Dallas Mavericks vs. 5) Houston Rockets

As promised, we got THE exclusive interview with the highest authority possible: The newly elected Pope Benedict XVI.

For those questioning the validity of this interview: trust me, it’s legit. I met Joseph (Jo, I called him then) Ratzinger on a train while traveling Europe in the summer of 95. The train stopped at Vienna, where I was to switch to another one, but Jo came to me with a unique proposition: get off with him in Vienna to spend the remainder of the night continuing our talks. I agreed. It was magical… At the end of it, we parted ways and lost contact… that is until I caught him on TV becoming the most powerful being on the planet. Through some hard work, I was finally able to get into contact with him and he accepted my proposition for an interview. Anyways, here’s the transcript:

-Booth52: First off, congratulations on the whole pope thing. Must have been a big day for you.
-Pope Benedict XVI: Yes, thank you. I feel truly blessed to be given this responsibility to lead the people of the world to the light of God. In fact, I have been given the message to direct the church in a radical new path, which includes… (The remainder of this particular dialogue has been edited due to article length restraints. We now fast forward to the more interesting portion of the interview.)
-Booth52: Alright Pope, down to business. Many folks don’t know this, but you are a HUGE NBA fan. Care to drop some insight on the playoffs?
-Pope Benedict XVI: (chuckling) Yes, you are right. In fact, most of the Cardinals are. The reason the voting actually took so long was because we had the games showing in the room. Once the playoff seeds were set, Cardinal Arinze set up the church pool for the playoffs and we got back to the whole voting thing. It’s unfortunate about Arinze’s gambling problem; I think it’s what cost him the vote… Anyways, the questions: proceed, my son.
-Booth52: Let’s focus on the Western Conference: In the 1. vs. 8. match up, we have the Suns vs. the Grizzlies. Your thoughts?
-Pope Benedict XVI: Yes, of all the matchups in the west, this is the one I find least intriguing. I just don’t see Memphis offering any competition for Pheonix. They come into the playoffs losing 5 out of 6, and having no true go-to player on their team. Gasol? He’s untested. I see a monster series from Stoudamire and an easy Suns victory in the series.
Pope’s Verdict: Phoenix advances 4-0
-Booth52: Can’t argue with you there Pope. Now 2 vs. 7: San Antonio vs. Denver.
-Pope Benedict XVI: Ahh yes. There always seems to be one of these matches with a top seeded team facing the surging at the right moment team. On paper, this looks like the match up with the most potential for an upset and I see many pundits foreseeing a competitive series. Alas, God doesn’t show his divine plans to the weak and the foolish. When the Nuggets are on, they get a lot of points off of drives into the lane, wide open dunks & alley oops by K-Mart, Camby, & Co. That type of stuff is just not going to happen vs. San Antonio. They’re way too sound defensively. San Antonio should take this in 5. That is unless Duncan is hurt, but my sources tell me he is going to be fine.
Pope’s Verdict: San Antonio advances 4-1
-Booth52: Alright, let’s switch off here and go to the 4-5 matchup: Dallas vs. Houston.
-Pope Benedict XVI: Yes, now this is an interesting match-up. While Phoenix & San Antonio are rightfully deserving of their elite status, I believe these two teams should be considered as the second tier of teams in the race, being clearly superior to Seattle, Sacramento, Denver, and Memphis. They both have legitimate superstars that will demand the ball down the stretch in Mcgrady and Nowitski. It'll be a close series and if the NBA ends up showing all four Miami-New Jersey blowout games over this series, may the Lord have mercy on their souls. I’m not too sure who’s gonna take this ser… wait, what’s that? (looking up) Oh. Houston in 7.
God’s Verdict: Houston advances 4-3
-Booth52: Wow! Really? The 4-3 upset huh? O.K., time for the series that matters: Seattle vs. Sacramento.
-Pope Benedict XVI: I’m sorry to bring you bad tidings, but your Sonics shall not prevail over the Kings. Bibby’s sick tattoo will be rewarded by the Lord with repeated one-on-one defense from Luke Ridnour, and he will average 25-5-8 for the series. His prayers for a miraculous healing of Stojakovic, Miller, & Jackson have also been answered, and they too will perform well. The series will go the distance, but the Kings will prevail.
Pope’s Verdict: Sacramento advances 4-3
-Booth52: WTF! You gotta be kidding me! You can’t say that on this site! I don’t know if you’ve been truly paying attention, but the Sonics, while not an elite team, are good and certainly capable enough of disposing of the Kings. Lewis seems recovered from his injury, and I expect he & Allen to average 55pts between the two of them, with Lewis scoring some key buckets in the 4th quarters of several games. Along with solid supporting performances by A.D., Collision, Ridnour, and Fortson/Evans, I see the Sonics taking the series in 7.
-Pope Benedict XVI: I find your lack of faith disturbing my son. I’ll pray for your soul.

Well, there you have it folks. NBA picks from the Holy one himself. Now go call your bookies and cash in on the scoop.

Why the Kings will win

"Let's get ready to... uh... line?"

Somebody find Michael Buffer, because I’m ready to rumble. The Kings and Sonics are ready to go, and I can’t wait.

One problem: the Sonics are going to lose.

I know, Brad Miller’s ready to guest star on ER he’s been so banged up this year. And Bobby Jackson’s recalcitrance about playing hurt leaves many in Sacramento wondering if he should even bother coming off the IR. And their best shooter’s groin is strained, putting his status in doubt for the playoffs.

Forget about it. This Sonics team isn’t ready for the playoffs. They aren’t ready for the night-after-night sprints, not when Rashard Lewis is wondering if he can handle the 7-games-in-2 weeks strain, not when Ray Allen is begging his coach to let him rest up. Not when Radmanovic’s health status is as unknown as the late Pope’s was.

In Dreaming War, Gore Vidal’s book of essays on America, Bush & Co., and September 11th, Vidal touts something he labels as “Received Opinion.” ROs, as he calls them, believe only what they are fed; by the media, by their friends, by their family. In the ROs world, 9/11 happened because of angry Muslims, Pearl Harbor because of angry Japanese, and so on.

Well, ROs will tell you the Sonics will win because “they spread the floor,” because “they’ve got the Kings’ number,” and any number of silly reasons. Here are the facts:

· The Sonics are 13-13 since March 1st. The Kings are 13-10. If anyone can see an edge there, feel free to let me know.
· Ray Allen led the Sonics in scoring in every game of April. The Kings had 5 different guys lead them in scoring in that time. Depth isn’t important when you’ve got MJ, Shaq, or Iverson, but sure as hell is when your best player’s advanced beyond the first round exactly one time in his career.
· What happens when the Sonics go down 1-2? Is Allen going to be focused on sacrificing his points for better team play, or is he going to be focused on how his play is going to affect his next contract?
· Greg Ostertag has seen the light. After a talking to from a Kings’ assistant late in the season, Ostertag shook off the rust, dropped 15 pounds, and grabbed 8 boards in consecutive games, including a 4-block performance against the Jazz. A healthy Ostertag is a huge presence that will limit the Sonics’ ability to grab offensive boards.
· Kenny Thomas is playing better than any of the Sonics’ PFs. He’s averaged 15 points with 9 boards since the all-star break and at 76% from the line, he’ll make the Sonics pay there, too.
· Bobby Jackson is clearly healthy. Anyone who watched him go off against the Suns last night can tell he’s back to his energetic self. With Radman out and Daniels gimpy, the Sonics don’t have anyone to match his presence off the bench.

Tomorrow, Chunkstyle will tell you the Sonics will find a way. I say no way.

Kings in 6.