Luke and Earl

There was considerable talk around the time of the Earl Watson trade that this move was going to spur Luke Ridnour to greater heights; that the reason he wasn’t playing to the level people expected this season was because he lacked adequate motivation, unlike the past two seasons when Antonio Daniels was there to spur him on.

Well, has adding Watson made a difference? Let’s take a look.

For simplicity’s sake, I’ve marked the cutoff point as March 1st, even though Watson’s first game in a Sonic jersey came on February 28th. Actually, I did this because I’m too lazy to add up all of Ridnour’s stats from the beginning of the year through February 20th; it’s just too darn hard. It’s a lot easier just to take his numbers on a monthly basis.

Anyway, it’s a relatively small sample size (18 games) to look at, but the numbers do show some intriguing insights.

1. Luke Ridnour is having a terrible April. If you include the March 31 game against the Lakers when he went 0-for-8, Frodo has shot 15-for-43 in his last five games, which isn’t great even for 3-point range, let alone inside the arc. While his assist figures are still admirable, he’s been turning the ball over way more often this month than normal.
2. Overall, Watson’s arrival has put of an offensive push into Luke’s game, specifically the passing game. After averaging between 8.9 and 9.7 assist per 48 minutes for the first four months, Ridnour jumped out to 11.3 assists per 48 in March, without a corresponding increase in turnovers. That’s a great sign.
3. His three-point shooting is as inconsistent as ever. Here are Luke’s numbers per month from 3-point land, percentage-wise: 23, 31, 33, 16, 41, 14. That’s borderline Jason Kidd circa 1995. As a reference, here’s Earl Watson’s numbers this season: 33, 43, 39, 40, 39, 53. Much better, obviously.
4. Luke’s steals and points per 48 minutes are essentially unchanged.

But back to the point of the story: Has Watson’s presence made any difference in Ridnour’s game? The honest answer: No, at least beyond a decrease in minutes. Obviously, it will take more than 18 games to tell us the impact the one point guard has on the other, but from this vantage point it is clear that Watson is outperforming Ridnour, and that Watson’s arrival has not coincided with an improvement in Frodo’s game.

Whether Ridnour will continue to improve on his own just from maturity is unknown, and of that his detractors should take heed. However, it seems to be clear that adding Watson to the equation is not making difference.

Weekend Update

3
That's the Magic Number
Yes it is
It's the magic number

Ah, nothing like three Sonic wins in a row to conjur up images of De La Soul and brighter times. Courtesy of the Portland Trail Blazers (thanks, Nate!), Seattle grabbed their third consecutive win last night as Ray Allen caught fire, Chris Wilcox continued his improbable Karl Malone impersonation, and Earl Watson continued to be everything the Sonics could have hoped for as Seattle rolled to a 121-108 win on Friday night.

Kudos to Nick Collison for picking up the slack in suspended Rashard Lewis' absence, as the young Jayhawk posted 13 points and 6 boards in his first game back, and also posted the highest +/- on the team with +14 in only 20-odd minutes. With Johan Petro sidelined as well, Collison was at center quite a bit, and made the most of it, as he always seems to do. As much as Collison can be maligned for the faults in his game, the man is a dependable player who - while he gets in foul trouble way too quickly - is tough on defense, knows how to rebound, and can handle the rock.

Can the Sonics make it four straight? Well, they'll have to knock off the Suns on Sunday to do it, but there's always hope.

Frenchman

With this season drawing to a close and the playoffs merely a dream, I’m sure everyone is looking forward to next season. In amongst the draft hype of who the Sonics will pick this spring, you’ve got to wonder about the current roster, as well as people like Mickael Gelabale.

I know what you’re thinking: What’s a Mickael Gelabale? Well, he’s a 6’8” SG/SF with a massive wingspan who can hit jump shots, play tough defense, and handle the ball on occasion. He’s also a possibility for the Sonics’ roster next season after being drafted in the 2nd round last spring.

Currently, Gelabale is playing for Real Madrid in the European League, where he averaged 8 ppg in about 23 minutes during the regular season. Of note, he shot close to 50% from the field, including nearly 40% from 3 point range and 77% from the FT line. (Coincidentally, one of his teammates at RM is former Sonic tryout and ex-Duck Alex Scales).

Gelabale played solid minutes during the regular season, posting double-digits in scoring seven times, but has yet to reach double figures in the post-season, which is going on as I write this. In all honesty, his stats regressed from the previous year with Real Madrid, but it seems to be more of a fewer minutes situation than anything else.

Gelabale is like a combination of Damien Wilkins and Desmond Mason if you ask me. He can block a few shots, hit the occasional 3, hit his free throws, and play good perimeter defense. He’s hit a high percentage of his shots in the Euro league, but I’m curious if that’s because he’s able to get separation from people over there – something he would have more difficulty doing in the NBA. It’s worth noting that one of his teammates at RM is Louis Bullock (former Michigan star), who regularly scores 20+ points in the Euro League (just to give some frame of reference to Gelabale’s stats).

In reading about Gelabale, one nice thing about him that emerges is that he’s not the kind of player who forces a shot, something which would work to his advantage in Seattle. He’s never going to be option #1 or even #2 on offense as a Sonic, so if he can lay back and wait for his shot he can be effective, sort of the way Damien was last year in the playoffs. As someone who can slash to the hoop, hit 18-foot jumpers, or come off screens, Gelabale can score in the NBA. Whether he can hit the NBA 3 is yet to be seen. As a bonus, he has played the point on occasion for Real Madrid, and showed the ability to handle the ball with decent ability.