Schlep to the Finish

There are about 15 games left on the schedule for the NBA, and the Sonics are in a death match with about five other teams for the 3rd-worst record in the league. It’s not the kind of competition GMs anticipate at the start of the season, but we can’t all have our cake and eat it, too. (Actually, as Sonic fans we don’t even get to look at the cake, let alone eat it).

Here are the Contenders:

Milwaukee: 25-42
Charlotte: 26-43
Philly: 26-42
Seattle: 26-41
Atlanta: 27-42
Portland: 27-40

And a quick look at handicapping (and that is definitely the right word to use for this group) how the rest of their seasons play out.

Milwaukee (15 games left): It’s likely they’ll win a couple of games, as they’re home against Boston, NY, Indy, Atlanta, and Charlotte. FINAL RECORD: 29-53

Charlotte (13 games): The Bobcats have won 4 of 6 and are probably the team least likely to tank the rest of the year, with the exception of the Blazers. FINAL RECORD: 31-51.

Philly (14 games): The Sixers 7-game win streak at the beginning of the month torched their chances at getting the #1 or #2 spot. Philly’s got home games against Boston, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Toronto, plus roadies against NY and the Celtics. FINAL RECORD: 31-51

Seattle (15 games): Thank God for the Western Conference, where teams actually suit up 12 people who can walk and chew gum simultaneously. The Sonics have all of two relatively winnable games left (Memphis and Denver at home), plus the roadie against the Blazers. Minny on the road is possible, but other than that we’re looking at a big ol’ list of Ls. FINAL RECORD: 29-53.

Atlanta (13 games): The Heat snapped ATL’s 5-game home win streak on Wednesday, but the Hawks could still do some damage down the stretch. FINAL RECORD: 31-51

Portland (15 games): Portland’s probably got the hardest schedule to close up, with 9 road games, including the dreaded Texas 3-step. I can see 3 or 4 wins, but no more. FINAL RECORD: 30-52.

With all of that, here’s how the field plays out:
29-53: Seattle, Milwaukee
30-52: Portland
31-51: Charlotte, Philly, Atlanta
A Sonic loss to Portland on the road (entirely possible) would put them at 28-54, provided they don’t screw up and win a game they shouldn’t. How Ray Allen decides to finish the year will be huge; if he decides to sit, I think the Sonics are the odds-on favorite to finish with the 3rd-worst record.

We’ll check in tomorrow with how the team with the 3rd-worst record has fared in the draft the past few years.

AD and Earl

Unbelievable. On the same day that Kevin Pelton and David Locke write long tomes about the lousy luck the Sonics have in the fourth quarter, Gilbert Arenas throws in a layup with no time on the clock and the Sonics lose again.

With the Wizards in town, that means old friend Antonio Daniels suited up in Key Arena. AD was the unsung hero of the Sonics' run to the semifinals back in 04-05, and was one of the first casualties of free agency to that team. At the time Daniels left, everyone thought it made sense to let him go. After all, was it worth it to pay $ 6 million a year to a backup point guard?

Well, try this on for size. The Sonics are paying Earl Watson almost exactly what AD is getting, and their contracts both expire at the end of the 09/10 season. In other words, instead of having a malcontent, poor shooting point guard who can't play D, we could have a team-focused, poor shooting point guard who plays great D ... for the same price. Of course, AD might have wanted to leave regardless, inasmuch as he didn't feel he needed to subbing for Luke Ridnour, so this all may be moot. Still, I can't help wondering what the Sonics' record would have been the last couple of years if we'd had him coming off the bench instead of Watson.

Just goes to show you that the future is never as simple as it might seem.

Hill of a Year

I’m going to make a point today that I guarantee will surprise most of the folks who stumble across this site:

I think Bob Hill has done a decent job this year.

Now, I’m not nominating the guy for Coach of the Year, but considering the lousy circumstances in which he is forced to compete, Hill deserves some credit.

To what circumstances am I referring? Try these:

1. A front office that is mired in the quicksand of new ownership
2. A roster overloaded with inexperienced big men
3. A point guard duality that makes early the 20th-century Balkan states look like Club Med
4. A contract status that lets the players know he has no power
5. A power forward who is late more often than a hooker who forgets to take the pill

And, yet, in spite of all this, Hill has his team competing. Even though their playoff chances are somewhere around Adam Sandler’s Oscar chances, Hill has convinced them to play hard.

Some of that comes from Ray Allen, who has defied advice to have surgery and is instead enduring pain night after night just so the team doesn’t throw in the towel. Still, I think Hill deserves a bit of praise for the way the Sonics have continued to compete, despite everyone thinking they should board the good ship Lotteria.

After a horrific 6-game losing streak to start the new year, you could smell the blood in the water. The Sonics weren’t going to make any moves at the trading deadline, Lewis was hurt, Fortson’s follies were a continual distraction ... and the Sonics have somehow trucked along, posting a 13-15 record since that lousy spell, with only five games out of those 28 being blowouts.

Hill has his detractors, yours truly included, but if you look at this situation from his perspective, I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt. Sure, playing Ray Allen 40 minutes a night when he’s got pain in his ankle isn’t smart, but what does Hill get out of saving Allen? He’s going to be fired regardless of how the Sonics finish, and his only chance of getting another job lies in the team getting as close to 40 wins as possible. You think his next employer is going to give a rat’s ass if he fell on his sword to help the Sonics compete better next year, when he’s long-gone? Of course not.

No, if you’re going to blame anyone for Allen or Lewis’ extended – and futile – minutes, take a look at Rick Sund, not Bob Hill. It is Sund, or his employers, that lack the gumption to just sack Hill and let an assistant run the show from here on out.

It all makes me think of the Spurs, for some reason. Can anyone imagine Popovich allowing the Fortson saga to drag on for what seems like 10 years? Can anyone imagine Phil Jackson permitting a point guard to tank the first half of the season because he didn’t like the minutes he was getting?

Of course not. But, then, the Sonics aren’t run by insightful, tough-minded people. They’re run by people that think it’s smart to draft teenaged centers three years in a row.