Whoa, There, Weezy

What would you say about a power forward who scored 46 points and grabbed 33 boards in two games in March? Sounds a lot like Chris Wilcox and his recent performance, right?

Um, yeah, it's Wilcox alright, but it's Wilcox from last year, when he went off against Milwaukee and Sacto in back-to-back games on March 21 and 22. Of course, he followed that up by grabbing 33 boards in the next five games, then going for double-doubles in four straight, then single-singles in three straight.

In other words, if anybody thinks Chris Wilcox has suddenly turned the corner and is entering the realm of a consistent scorer/rebounder, I'd suggest downing a nice glass of warm milk and settling down. Call him Weezy, call him Wilco, call him whatever, but the man has proven one thing in his five years in the league: He is just as capable of scoring 6 points as he is 26.

Is it circumstances? Is it lack of PT? I have no flippin' idea, but the fact remains that Wilcox has gone for big nights in LA and now in Seattle, yet for some reason he has yet to elevate his game to the next level. His flukish 79% free throw percentage for the Sonics last season was a total aberration from his career marks, and Coach Hill admitted in Kevin Pelton's article today at supersonics.com that he's reluctant to throw the ball to Wilcox down the stretch due to Weezy's inability to hit shots from the stripe.

Detractors will point to Karl Malone's improved FT% as evidence that players can change from the stripe, but they should also point out that Malone's percentage went up each year at the start of his career, until he reached a point where teams could not longer count on fouling him. Wilcox' numbers, however, have been as inconsistent as his overall play: 50, 70, 61, 64, 78, 65.

I'm not saying Wilcox isn't a decent player, and it's possible he's worth the six and a half mil a season the Sonics are paying him. But to say that he's "figured it out" after five years of inconsistent play based on a week and a half of above-average performances ... well, I guess I'm just a little more skeptical.

Schlep to the Finish

There are about 15 games left on the schedule for the NBA, and the Sonics are in a death match with about five other teams for the 3rd-worst record in the league. It’s not the kind of competition GMs anticipate at the start of the season, but we can’t all have our cake and eat it, too. (Actually, as Sonic fans we don’t even get to look at the cake, let alone eat it).

Here are the Contenders:

Milwaukee: 25-42
Charlotte: 26-43
Philly: 26-42
Seattle: 26-41
Atlanta: 27-42
Portland: 27-40

And a quick look at handicapping (and that is definitely the right word to use for this group) how the rest of their seasons play out.

Milwaukee (15 games left): It’s likely they’ll win a couple of games, as they’re home against Boston, NY, Indy, Atlanta, and Charlotte. FINAL RECORD: 29-53

Charlotte (13 games): The Bobcats have won 4 of 6 and are probably the team least likely to tank the rest of the year, with the exception of the Blazers. FINAL RECORD: 31-51.

Philly (14 games): The Sixers 7-game win streak at the beginning of the month torched their chances at getting the #1 or #2 spot. Philly’s got home games against Boston, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Toronto, plus roadies against NY and the Celtics. FINAL RECORD: 31-51

Seattle (15 games): Thank God for the Western Conference, where teams actually suit up 12 people who can walk and chew gum simultaneously. The Sonics have all of two relatively winnable games left (Memphis and Denver at home), plus the roadie against the Blazers. Minny on the road is possible, but other than that we’re looking at a big ol’ list of Ls. FINAL RECORD: 29-53.

Atlanta (13 games): The Heat snapped ATL’s 5-game home win streak on Wednesday, but the Hawks could still do some damage down the stretch. FINAL RECORD: 31-51

Portland (15 games): Portland’s probably got the hardest schedule to close up, with 9 road games, including the dreaded Texas 3-step. I can see 3 or 4 wins, but no more. FINAL RECORD: 30-52.

With all of that, here’s how the field plays out:
29-53: Seattle, Milwaukee
30-52: Portland
31-51: Charlotte, Philly, Atlanta
A Sonic loss to Portland on the road (entirely possible) would put them at 28-54, provided they don’t screw up and win a game they shouldn’t. How Ray Allen decides to finish the year will be huge; if he decides to sit, I think the Sonics are the odds-on favorite to finish with the 3rd-worst record.

We’ll check in tomorrow with how the team with the 3rd-worst record has fared in the draft the past few years.

AD and Earl

Unbelievable. On the same day that Kevin Pelton and David Locke write long tomes about the lousy luck the Sonics have in the fourth quarter, Gilbert Arenas throws in a layup with no time on the clock and the Sonics lose again.

With the Wizards in town, that means old friend Antonio Daniels suited up in Key Arena. AD was the unsung hero of the Sonics' run to the semifinals back in 04-05, and was one of the first casualties of free agency to that team. At the time Daniels left, everyone thought it made sense to let him go. After all, was it worth it to pay $ 6 million a year to a backup point guard?

Well, try this on for size. The Sonics are paying Earl Watson almost exactly what AD is getting, and their contracts both expire at the end of the 09/10 season. In other words, instead of having a malcontent, poor shooting point guard who can't play D, we could have a team-focused, poor shooting point guard who plays great D ... for the same price. Of course, AD might have wanted to leave regardless, inasmuch as he didn't feel he needed to subbing for Luke Ridnour, so this all may be moot. Still, I can't help wondering what the Sonics' record would have been the last couple of years if we'd had him coming off the bench instead of Watson.

Just goes to show you that the future is never as simple as it might seem.