Tenacious D

If you’re going to use any word as the headline for the Sonics this summer, I think it would be change. With a revamped roster and front office, to say nothing of the potential departure of the franchise, that’s a natural.

But what would be the second word? I think anyone who has followed this team’s fortunes for the last few months would agree that defense would qualify. Defense, or perhaps culture, but let’s not revisit that oft-used word which, like a slow driver dawdling in the passing lane, drives your earnest narrator to such agitation.

Where was I? Oh, right, defense. In his brief tenure, Sam Presti has consistently looked for players that play defense (‘What about Wally World?’ Quiet, you.). At the same time, he has shed the team of players who are, well, let’s be nice and say not exactly candidates for defensive player of the year.

With that in mind, and with Jon Nichols’ fine article at 82games about defensive ratings fresh in my mind, here’s a chart listing the departed players and arriving players, with their defensive ratings to accompany them (and before you read the article, brace yourself for seeing Paul Millsap’s name listed in the top ten; yes, the same Millsap the Sonics passed on in order to select Mo Sene. How ya doin’, Rick Sund?):

ARRIVING, DCS, Def +/-, Drtg
Wally Szczerbiak, 1, +5.4, 110
Delonte West, 48, +3.0, 108
Kurt Thomas, 75, -4.9, 103

DEPARTING
Ray Allen, 31, +1.3, 112
Rashard Lewis, 59, -1.1, 110

Some explanations. DCS is Nichols’ compilation stat that rates players based upon box score statistics, +/- numbers, and Dean Oliver’s defensive rating. Rather than relying on a single defensive stat, it compiles three of them to give a better illustration of a player’s defensive abilities.

And, from the statistics Nichols uses, it’s obvious the Sonics have made an improvement on defense just with the small sample shown above (with the notable exception of Szczerbiak, who checked in as the 3rd worst (!) defender in the entire NBA last season). Thomas’ numbers are extremely good, and West is easily better than either Ray Allen or Luke Ridnour, the folks from whom he will likely take minutes. From another angle, Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis played 4,500 minutes for the Sonics last season and contributed 6.3 defensive win shares. Thomas and West, in only 3,400 minutes, contributed 9.6 defensive win shares. In an equal number of minutes, they would have produced more than twice as many DWS as Allen/Lewis.

In fact, when you add in Jeff Green’s abilities as a small forward, this team is immensely better on the defensive end, especially when you think of a lineup of West, Durant, Green, Collison and Thomas. Call me crazy, but that has got to be one of the better defensive lineups in the league – better, that is, if Kevin Durant is ready to guard the talented two guards that populate the league. A big if, certainly.

Still, if Sam Presti’s goal this summer was the remake this team into a better defensive one, I think we can safely say: Mission accomplished.

Young Blood

As it stands today, the Sonics have 14 players on their roster. Just to make all you 30-something guys out there feel even older, ponder this for a moment:

Out of those 14, guess how many were born before 1980?

Give up?

3.

That's right, 11 of the 14 players on the Seattle SuperSonics were born post-Jimmy Carter. Wally Szczerbiak (1977), Kurt Thomas (1972), and Earl Watson (1979) are the only holdovers from the Donna Summer Decade.

Where have you gone, Clemon Johnson? A Sonic Nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Predicting Kevin Durant

With the pre-season still far off in the future, and with not much else on the go, I thought I’d start taking a look at what we can expect from the Sonics this year. Naturally, the first guy on the docket is Kevin Durant. Heck, who else did you expect me to write about, Zabian Dowdell? (Okay, I admit it, I considered Little Z first, but that would have been going too far).

Durant is a tough guy to predict – he’s as tall as most power forwards, but he’s got the ability to play shooting guard. He can dunk, shoot 3’s, rebound (allegedly), and run the break with equal aplomb. He’s also 19 and as is so thin he looks like he could squeeze through the bars of a jail cell without too much difficulty. Can he withstand the banging and pounding that is (less so now, but still) so commonplace in the NBA?

The other problem with predicting Durant is that he has no obvious comparisons. Carmelo Anthony is similar, but not really. Dirk Nowitzki is one possibility, but Dirk was a European who no experience in North America his rookie season, and a teenager to boot. LeBron is another option, but he spent no time in college, and their bodies are completely different.

With that in mind, here are the 3 most-recent superstars to emerge from the draft, and how they did their rookie seasons as compared to their freshman years in college (with the obvious exception of LBJ:

Carmelo Anthony:
Freshman Year: 45%, 33%, 22 ppg, 10 rpg, 36 mpg
Rookie Year: 43%, 32%, 21 ppg, 6 rpg, 36 mpg

Dwyane Wade:
Freshman Year: 49%, 35%, 17.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 32 mpg
Rookie Year: 47%, 30%, 16.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 35 mpg

LeBron James:
Rookie Year: 42%, 29%, 21 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 40 mpg

Kevin Durant:
Freshman Year: 47%, 40%, 26 ppg, 11 rpg, 36 mpg

(The percentages are FG and 3FG, respectively)

Once again, Durant defies comparison. His numbers are better across the board compared to those guys. You might be surprised – as I was – to see how similar Wade and Anthony were in their rookie years to their freshman seasons. Naturally, I don’t expect Durant to put up a 26-11 this season (especially since he won’t have a 20’ 3-pointer as an option this year), but considering that both Wade and Anthony played at about 90% of their levels their rookie seasons, is it that unreasonable to expect Durant to put up about 22-7 this year? I don’t think so.

Plus, if Durant stays at the 2-guard this year, as many expect, he’s going to come close to matching his block totals from Texas (2 per game) just from the simple reason of guarding much smaller players.

I think it’s safe to say that the Sonics will be looking not only at someone who will be the odds-on favorite to be Rookie of the Year, but someone who could very well contend for a spot on the All-Star Team this year. That last claim might be overly optimistic, but I’d certainly say there’s a 50% chance he does it. First, he has no competition on his team when it comes to shot attempts, and, second, his college numbers were so good you have to expect him to register something pretty impressive this year.

Now, about that 185-pound bench press ...