Crunch Time

Question for a Thursday:

With training camp in full motion, there has been plenty of speculation on the Sonics’ starting lineup, but how about the finishing lineup?

We all remember the Supes’ wonderful run three years ago, when they came within a couple games of knocking off the Spurs. One huge key to that team was the effective way Nate McMillan used Antonio Daniels to spell Luke Ridnour at the end of games (a habit which drove Ridnour nuts). Many players, including Delonte West recently, have said that who starts the game doesn’t matter nearly as much as who finishes.

I agree. If the first 3 ½ quarters of an NBA game are the regular season, the final half of the fourth quarter is the playoffs. With that in mind, who should the Sonics be using to finish games this season?

To my thinking there are five key factors to making a crunch-time player:

1. Free throw shooting
2. Defense
3. Execution
4. Perimeter shooting
5. Rebounding

Obviously, it isn’t important for a shooting guard to rebound; I’m speaking more of the 5-man unit as a whole. With those five pieces in mind, if I was PJ Carlesimo, here’s who I would run out there in the final minutes of a close game:

PG: Earl Watson
SG: Kevin Durant
SF: Wally Szczerbiak
PF: Nick Collison
C: Kurt Thomas

Now, some explanations. With the exception of Watson, all five are great FT shooters, and Watson shot 74% last season, so he’s no slouch, either. While Earl’s outside shot isn’t as good as Ridnour’s, his defense is superior, and he outranks Delonte West in ball-handling and distribution.

(And, in case you felt like arguing about “crunch time stats,” bear in mind that Earl Watson’s eFG percentages in crunch time for the past five seasons were 42, 61, 43, 34, 48. If you can see a pattern there, you’re much smarter than me. Suffice it so say that I don’t anyone on the Sonics is any more “clutch” than anyone else; just than some players are better shooters than others).

Back to the lineup. You could argue that putting a rookie in a pressure situation isn’t the best idea, but this is a team trying to build for the future and Durant is that future. Add in his 81% FT mark at Texas, and it’s a no-brainer. Plus, this squad needs someone who can hit outside shots other than Wally, and Durant fits that bill.

Szczerbiak v Wilkins is a tough call, but I’m going with Wally just because he’s just such an outstanding shooter. Of course, with Szczerbiak’s proclivity to get injured Wilkins will still have plenty of opportunities (assuming, that is, that the Sonics have plenty of close games, which is a stretch).

Finally, Collison and Thomas are just so far ahead of their competition when it comes to defense and execution there really isn’t much of a contest. After all, who do you think is more likely to box out: Nick Collison or Chris Wilcox? Who is more likely to switch at the right time, Kurt Thomas or Bob Swift? It’s really not an argument.

Now, if the coaching staff wants to sabotage any chance at winning this season, Jeff Green or Swift could see more action, and I would even argue it would be smart to run those two out there at least occasionally so they can get a feel of the tenacity of late-game action. Still, I really believe the Sonics can’t afford to let Durant get a taste of losing every night, and he needs to be playing with guys who know what they’re doing at the end of games, if only to further his development.

Training Camp

Interesting quote in Eric Williams' profile on Damien Wilkins at the TNT. "If you don't defend, you don't play [in Carlesimo's system]", Williams quotes Wilkins as saying, and it makes you wonder how many minutes Damien will get this season, especially considering all the competition he'll be getting.

With Wally Szczerbiak's recovery from surgery still a work in progress, perhaps it's possible that Kevin Durant gets 30-some minutes a night at the two, Delonte West (who sprained his ankle in practice and is now day-to-day) picks up 20+ minutes at both guard spots, and Wilkins, Jeff Green, and Szczerbiak split the 48 minutes at small forward. Of course, that doesn't leave anything for Mickael Gelabale, but someone has to suffer, I suppose. (Of note, Gary Washburn indicates that Gelly has a tattoo of his home of Guadalupe on his right shoulder.)

In other news, Brandon Roy will be sitting for the entire pre-season to rest his left ankle - at least that's what Nate McMillan is contemplating, anyway. This off-season for Portland has gone from the highest high to the lowest low pretty quickly. Almost makes a guy feel sorry for Blazer fans.

Almost.

5 Questions for a Wednesday

With training camp underway, it's time to start thinking about what's going to happen to the Sonics roster in the next 30 days. With that in mind, here are

5 Questions To Be Answered at Sonic Training Camp

1. Who starts at point guard?
Ridnour, Watson, West. Three choices, no easy answer. According to Carlesimo, all three are viable options. Frodo wants to put last year behind him, Watson is the defensive player the new culture requires, and West is the X factor. I’m betting on Earl.

2. Where will Kevin Durant play?
Shooting guard seems the likely answer. Durant played there in summer league, played there for the US team, and played there the first day of training camp.

3. Who starts at center?
Kurt Thomas is the vet, Bob Swift has the tattoos, Johan Petro has nothing. Sorry, that’s mean; Johan is easily the best french-speaking center on the Sonics' roster. Swift’s long rehab process indicates to me that the logical choice is Thomas, with an outside chance that Nick Collison takes the reins.

4. Where does Wally Szczerbiak fit in?
Durant’s your SG, Green’s your SF, Wilkins needs his minutes, Gelly needs his minutes, West’s a backup SG ... how the heck does Wally get any time? It will be interesting to see where/how often Wally World plays in the next month.

5. Will Big Weezy step it up?
Chris Wilcox has more potential for success than a Redford-Newman movie circa 1974. Unfortunately, we’re in Year 6 of the Chris Wilcox Era, and he still hasn’t shed the label of underachiever. With Durant and Green on board, I’m not expecting him to take the next step this year, either.