Long Range

Sometimes, graphics and statistics can be misleading. The number of foreclosures reported in the newspaper, for example, is misleading in that it tells the total number of foreclosures, but fails to explain that a single home can have two, three, or four mortgages, meaning a single home could be “foreclosed” up to four times. In reality, only one family is facing foreclosure, not three or four, but if you read the paper you would have no idea of that fact.

Likewise, sports statistics are often misleading. The Nuggets and Warriors forced the most turnovers in the league this season, but that doesn’t mean that they necessarily have the best defenses, it just means that they play at a higher pace than most squads, with more possessions.

Sometimes, many times, statistics are insightful, though. Take the Sonics and 3-point shooting, or lack thereof.



No, self-satisfied lovers of Al Franken, it’s not George Bush’s approval rating. Rather, it’s the Sonics’ ranking within the NBA on 3-pointers attempted. The chart begins with Ray Allen’s arrival in Seattle in 2003, and concludes with the season just completed.

Taking their cue from the team’s greatest star, Allen, the Sonics quickly emerged as the top-gunning team in the league, and by 2004-05 (year 2) they took more three-pointers than any other team. That trend continued in the next two seasons, but tailed off until this season, when the Sonics finally made the transformation complete, ranking dead last in the league in attempts.

In other words, within five seasons the Sonics have gone from the most likely to attempt a three to the absolute least likely; from World B Free to Olden Polynice in half a decade.

It’s a remarkable turnaround, a change in philosophy shown in other figures as well. 82games.com shows that only 13% of Seattle’s field goal attempts were from long-range, the lowest percentage in the league (Orlando, home of Rashard Lewis, ranked first).

But consider this: of the 13 teams who attempted more than the league average in threes this season, 10 qualified for the playoffs (77%). Of the 17 who attempted fewer than the league average, only six made it beyond the end of the regular season (35%). And that’s not an isolated trend, either. Last year, 80% of above-average gunners made the playoffs, while only 27% of the non-gunners did. The previous season, the numbers were 76% of gunners and 23% of non-gunners.

Clearly, this is not an isolated trend. Combined with Kevin Durant’s reluctance to launch threes as the season went along, and the departure of the team’s best shooter, Wally Szczerbiak via trade, it is painfully clear that the Sonics need to acquire outside shooting this summer. While the first pick they make will likely be for Derrick Rose (assuming the ping pong balls cooperate), Sam Presti will no doubt be looking hard at shooting guards this June.

Assuming, of course, he’s trying to make a better team. Which, in these days of uncertainty, is a big assumption to make.

PJ Back Next Year

Ending a month or so of speculation, Sam Presti announced at a press conference today that PJ Carlesimo will return as the Sonics' head coach next season.

Carlesimo enters the 2008-09 season having posted a winning percentage below .300 in three of his past four seasons, and since leaving the rosy confines of Portland a decade ago has compiled (emphasis on "pile") a record of 66-175.

In other words, if the Sonics go 82-0 next season, Carlesimo would still have a below .500 record in the NBA coaching teams outside of the state of Oregon.

However, were the Sonics to win all 82 games, then continue with a 27-game win streak to start the 2009-10 season, PJ would then be right smack at .500 for his post-Blazer career.

Of course, it's not really fair to PJ to blame him for this past season's roster. It's not as if he benched rookies in favor of veteran retreads like Donyell Marshall or Francisco Elson in an attempt to study the mystical powers of those veterans. And it's not as if he didn't have, oh, I don't know, the starting point guard for the Cleveland Cavaliers collecting DNP-CDs for half the season.

Oh, nevermind.

Trial Delayed?

Hard to say at this point, but the City of Seattle filed a motion in Federal Court yesterday asking for the trial to be delayed by six months should Judge Pechman agree with the Sonics' recent motion requesting the amount of money be decided at the conclusion of the trial.

To give a quick synopsis, the team is asking for Pechman to render a decision on 1) the trial and, should the Sonics emerge victorious, 2) the amount of money the city should be compensated should the team leave prior to the end of their lease.

Keep in mind that this motion to delay only comes into affect if Pechman agrees with the team, which is no surety. Should Pechman decided that the team's request is not merited, then this delay becomes moot. In a way, if Pechman agrees with the team's request, then agrees with the city's request to delay the trial, Clay Bennett is going to be awful ticked at his lawyers for even bringing this issue up, as their idea to speed up the process by including the money with the trial will have had the unintended affect of ruining any chance they had of playing in Oklahoma City this fall.

In other trial-related news, the company which compiled a market study of Seattle v Oklahoma City for the NBA has objected to Seattle's subpoena for said study, citing client confidentiality and a lack of adequate response time. The NBA also objected, in that the study would reveal that moving a team from Seattle to Oklahoma City would, in the words of the study, "be as dumb as putting a team on the moon."

I kid, of course.

And, finally, some people look to swallows returning to Capistrano, or seeing a robin in the front yard as an indication of spring arriving. Me? I look for the "Will George Karl Get Canned?" headline to let me know it's time to break out the shorts and clean up the barbecue.