Chesapeake, McLendon Could Use Some

I’ve avoided any comments about our friend Aubrey McClendon recently, which may be good news to people who want to read about basketball on a basketball website.

But with news from Gerson Leason Group’s Michael Lynch that Chesapeake Energy is planning to sell $1 billion in assets in the near future, and further news that Chesapeake is expected to sell another $1.5 billion in 2010, I couldn’t help but mention it.

Bear in mind that Chesapeake is not selling these assets because the company wishes to further pad its bank statement. Rather, it is because portions of their more than $12 billion in debt financing are coming due soon, and with natural gas prices lagging, a stock price still off more than 50% from the highs of last summer, and the CEO embroiled in lawsuits … well, they need the money.

And, even more importantly, as Lynch points out:

the worldwide financial collapse which has impacted all nations coupled with a self-inflicted shale gas glut in the U.S. has seriously jeopardized the entire natural gas industry. Close observers think the market weakness will extend into 2010 and based on what is known about the planned LNG worldwide expansions, could last a decade [emphasis added]. That is why it is imperative for the shale gas drillers to align their budgets with their cash flow and prepare for inevitable bond maturities.

In other words, despite the optimistic statements from Mr. McClendon, it will get better before it gets worse. And, considering the Sonix rank at the bottom of the league in revenue, and that Chesapeake may very well be bought out by BP any month now, you’ve got to wonder, how much longer will he be able to continue subsidizing this team?

This Might Make Your Head Hurt

Consider, if you will, the role the Denver Nuggets franchise has played in the life of one George Karl.

The Nuggets, have, thanks to an infamous series from 15 years ago, served as the millstone around Karl's neck, the very emblem of his playoff failures. It could be argued that the Sonics' continued first-round playoff debacles in the years following that Denver series may not have happened were it not for the three-game collapse Seattle suffered at the hands of the Nuggets, inasmuch as they planted the seeds of doubt into the minds of the entire roster, not to mention thousands of anxious fans.

And, if Seattle doesn't suffer those failures, basketball historians look back a bit more fondly on George Karl's tenure as a head coach, correct? In fact, if Karl's Sonics had won a couple more playoff series, he doesn't get fired by Wally Walker, doesn't take over the Bucks, get fired by the Bucks, and then get hired by the Nuggets.

All of which leads us to last night's stirring win by Denver - now coached, obviously, by George Karl - over Los Angeles. For if the Nuggets are to pull off a series victory over the heavily favored Lakers, it might be enough to propel Karl into the Hall of Fame, as the list of NBA coaches who have guided two separate franchises to the Finals is about as long as the list of David Souter's girlfriends.

And so, you might argue, if Denver is to pull off the upset, the Denver Nuggets would be - simultaneously - the franchise that held back and then propelled George Karl into the Hall of Fame.

George Karl: Hall of Famer?

While watching Tuesday’s agonizing Laker win against the Nuggets, I overheard an interesting comment from Jeff Van Gundy. I’m paraphrasing here, but the gist of it was:

“A guy like George Karl, you talk about those other guys [the trio was in the midst of discussing coaches], and George Karl is a Hall of Fame coach.”

Quite a bold pronouncement, no? I’m sure Van Gundy was speaking more off the cuff than he was providing a cogent, nuanced argument, but regardless, it’s one I had been thinking about for the past few days.

Specifically, where does George Karl – wearer of funny ties, most intriguing coach in Sonics history, resident grouch – rank among the NBA’s all-time coaching greats?

Karl is a Gene Mauchian character. With no ring on his finger, he lacks the cache of such renowned “winners” as Gregg Popovich, Phil Jackson, or Chuck Daly. A wonderfully successful regular season coach who revitalized five different franchises (Cleveland, Golden State, Seattle, Milwaukee, and Denver), Karl has, sadly, proven incapable of capturing the brass ring.

And so it is that, rather than lounging on the patio with the Auerbachs and Rileys, Karl is relegated to the kitchen with such lesser-knowns as Cotton Fitzsimmons and Rick Adelman. But is that a just scenario, or is his greatness being overlooked?

To make the case for Karl as a Hall of Famer, one could easily turn to his regular season accomplishments. He’s 10th all-time in victories, and almost everyone ahead of him is in the HOF.

Only ten men have coached as many regular season games as Karl, and take a guess as to how many have a better winning percentage.

Would it surprise you to find out that the answer is two? Or that those two – Jerry Sloan and Pat Riley – are both in the Hall of Fame?

With plenty of years left in his career, Karl now has more wins than Hall of Famers John Kundla and Alex Hannum, combined.

Fine, you say, but Kundla and Hannum are poor comparisons from a different era. What about someone who had a career of a roughly similar length to Karl in the same era, how would your boy match up then?

Well, if he lost every game for the next two and a half seasons, Karl would still have a better career winning percentage than legendary Hall of Famer Jack Ramsay. How’s that for a matchup? Further, even if Karl’s Nuggets flame out against the Lakers this spring, he’ll still have a better playoff winning percentage than the former Blazer coach.

Yes, the critics say, but Karl never won a title, so how can he deserve to go into the Hall?

Well, Jerry Sloan never won a title as a coach, his winning percentage is only marginally better than Karl’s (.602 to .592), he’s got a losing record in the playoffs (94-98), and he only managed one more conference championship than George, despite the fact he’s coached an extra five seasons. And Sloan’s in the Hall, right?

Or Hubie Brown. Sure, he’s great on tv, but he wasn’t all that great as a coach (70 games below .500, no conference titles, .368 playoff winning percentage), and he’s in the Hall, right?

You hear all of that, and you start thinking, hey, maybe Van Gundy’s on to something, maybe George Karl does deserve to get into the Hall. Top 10 in wins, brought five different teams to the playoffs … I know he doesn’t act or look like a Hall of Famer, but, geez, when you look at those numbers, it’s hard to argue, right?

Well, that’s one side. Here’s the other.

Of all the coaches in NBA history who have won 933 games (Karl’s total at the end of this season), the only other two without a title are Don Nelson and Jerry Sloan.

And while his regular season winning percentage ranks 12th all-time, cheek and jowl with Daly, Sloan, Kundla, and Sharman, his playoff winning percentage is a pedestrian 33rd, alongside the likes of McMillan, MacLeod, and Silas.

To get a better picture of Karl’s “greatness,” I crunched the numbers for the 50 coaches with the most regular season games, taking into special consideration four factors: Playoff Winning Percentage, Regular Season Winning Percentage, Conference Titles, and Championships. I further multiplied their career wins times winning percentage to give a truer indication of their accomplishments, divided the results by five to bring the total into a more manageable figure, gave each coach five points for a conference title, and finally 15 points for a championship. Add it all up, and you’ve got a list of the best coaches in history. (See chart accompanying this article for the complete numbers).

As expected, Phil Jackson is the top dog, with Riley, Auerbach, Popovich and Wilkens rounding out the top five. (Yes, Auerbach is ill served by his lack of “conference titles,” inasmuch as there were no conferences during his era. However, even if we give him credit for eight “Division” titles, he still falls short of Jackson. Regardless, any chart with Riley, Auerbach and Jackson as the top three can’t be all wrong, can it?).

Not surprisingly, the majority of the top ten are Hall of Famers, with the exceptions of active coaches and KC Jones, making him the only member of the Celtics not to be in the Hall (a little anti-Boston humor there).

In reality, the most comparable coaches to Karl are Don Nelson and Rick Adelman, neither of whom are in the Hall of Fame, although I’d have to imagine that eventually Nelson will be enshrined, considering that next year he’ll pass Lenny Wilkens for the most wins in NBA coaching history (or, at least Golden State fans hope he will; Nellie needs 24 to pass Wilkens).

Adelman, like Karl, has a strong regular season pedigree (even topping George in winning percentage), has taken multiple teams to the post-season, but is 0-for-Career in winning a championship.

For both gentlemen, barring a title run in the future, they will need to rely upon the length of their careers to gain access to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for both of them, the NBA landscape is littered with proficient coaches who couldn’t capture that one glorious season which catapulted them into the league’s upper class.

And so, to answer Jeff Van Gundy’s statement from Tuesday: Is George Karl a Hall of Famer?

Maybe someday, but not today.