Kemp is better than the Mailman

For a few years back in the late 1990s, your intrepid narrator managed to finagle a press pass for the Vancouver Grizzlies, enabling me to take in about 100 or so games at GM Place in Vancouver.

As you can imagine, these were not the Boston-Los Angeles clashes that made the NBA famous, unless by Boston-Los Angeles, you’re referring to something along the lines of Dino Radja versus Pig Miller and not Bird versus Magic.

Anyhow, it gave me a good schooling on how irrelevant certain regular season games can be, so much so that I developed a 3-point rule for determining if the players and fans are into the game at hand. If you can answer yes to all three questions, then you are watching a game that nobody cares about:

1. Can you hear the players’ sneakers squeaking?
2. Can you hear the head coach calling out plays?
3. Do the players behave in a friendly manner with one another, e.g., chatting at the free throw line, helping up opponents, laughing at turnovers?

Believe me, there were plenty of nights when I answered yes to all three of those questions at GM Place back in the day.

I tell you that to tell you this – judging players solely on statistics without taking into account the importance of the game can be misleading. Anyone who has watched more than a dozen NBA games can tell you the players bring a completely different level of intensity for playoff games than they do for Tuesday games in February against the Grizzlies.

So, with that in mind, I set about determining what were the ten most important games Shawn Kemp played against Karl Malone in their careers. Obviously, series-deciding games would have to be included, and there are four of those. Add in the Western Conference Finals of 1996 and, voila, you’ve got ten games to consider.

Yes, it’s a small sample size, and, yes, it may not be the best way to judge these two, but it is a valid point to consider: When the games mattered the most, when both players were playing their hardest, when both teams and coaches expended the most amount of energy, who fared better, Karl Malone or Shawn Kemp?

At first glance, the edge seems to go to Malone, especially if you’re relying on traditional numbers such as points, rebounds, and assists.

Player	REB	AST	PTS
Malone	114	43	262
Kemp	92	11	178

Case closed, right? Well, not so fast, Mailman fanatics. In his great book Basketball on Paper, Dean Oliver argued that there are other elements beyond the basic stats which are more indicative of player or team success. Oliver labeled them the Four Factors, and they are:

1. Shooting percentage (10)
2. Turnovers per possession (5-6)
3. Offensive rebounding percentage (4-5)
4. Getting to the foul line (2-3)

The numbers in brackets after each factor is the value Oliver places upon them. With that in mind, let’s see how Kemp and Malone stack up.

Player	FG%	TO/Poss	OREB%	FTM/FGA
Malone	47%	0.13	9%	0.27
Kemp	67%	0.25	9%	0.49

One of the four is a push, one goes to Malone (turnovers), and two go overwhelmingly to Kemp. So, right off the bat, according to one of the brightest statistical minds in the basketball universe, Kemp has an edge, and not a small one either when you consider Oliver’s belief in the importance of shooting percentage.

But it doesn’t stop there. Almost any Sonic fan more than 25 years old can tell you the enjoyment we felt in watching Malone fail at the free throw line, and the joy we had in counting down from ten while he struggled at the stripe in KeyArena. But was that just our memories, or did Malone fail as much as we remembered?

He did.

FREE THROW PERCENTAGE
Kemp 77%, Malone 62%

Thanks to Oliver, NBA number-crunchers have become obsessed with possessions, and rightfully so. While in the old days a player such as Alex English could be lauded for scoring 30 points, now we’re a little more cautious – sure, he scored 30, but how many possessions did it take? Sure, the Nuggets and Suns give up a lot of points on defense, but does that mean they’re lazy without the ball, or that they just have more possessions than most teams?

The same goes for the Kemp/Malone argument. For example:

POINTS/100 POSSESSIONS
Kemp 132, Malone 102.7

That’s a huge difference, no? Look at it this way: points are like miles driven, and possessions are the number of gallons of gas you put into the car to drive those miles. Judging players only by points scored is like judging a car’s fuel economy by the numbers of miles it traveled – it’s incomplete. Sure, Malone outscored Kemp 262-178, but it took him almost twice as many possessions to do it (255-135). It’s like the difference between a Prius and a Hummer, for crying out loud.

The ultimate illustration of the contrasting styles of the two players came in game seven of the 1996 Western Conference Finals, a game the Sonics won 90-86 in Seattle. A cursory look at the boxscore the next morning would have left the reader to think that the two men played to a draw, with Kemp getting a slight edge.

Malone – 22 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds
Kemp – 26 points, 14 rebounds, 1 assist

But looking more closely, you can see that Kemp had huge advantages. Malone’s 22 points came on 31 possessions, while Kemp scored 26 points on only 18 possessions. Malone hit only 6 of 12 free throws, while Kemp hit 10 of 11. Kemp had a true shooting percentage of 77%, while Malone’s was a dismal 40%.

Yes, it was one game, and considering how well Malone played over the course of 42 matchups between the two, we shouldn’t throw all of his accomplishments in the wastebin because he came up short one time in 1996.

But, really, it’s not just one game. In the ten most important games the two men played against one another, when the stakes were as high as they could get, when both teams tried to squeeze every last ounce of talent from their players, Shawn Kemp was the better basketball player, and not by a small margin either.

One could argue that Malone’s achievements from a career standpoint would outweigh Kemp’s accomplishments in the post-season, and that’s a fair consideration. But I look at it from this vantagepoint: What is a team paying a player to do?

He is paid to do two things. First, get his team into the playoffs. Second, once the first objective is reached, he is paid to get his team a championship.

Shawn Kemp certainly took more than a few nights off during the regular season, especially when compared to Karl Malone, so you have to give the edge to the Mailman for that aspect.

But when it comes to getting his team to a championship? When the crowd is deafening and coaches have to scream their instructions even when the players are standing right next to them?

In that case, my friends, I’ll take the Reignman.

The Case for the Mailman

Yesterday, I offered up the idea of looking at two iconic members of Sonic history. One of them is the ultimate Seattle hero, the other the ultimate villain.

Seattle sports fans can argue about plenty of things. Is Dave Krieg better than Matt Hasselbeck? Would Felix Hernandez outduel Randy Johnson? Greatest Seattle sports hero: Gary Payton, Steve Largent or Ken Griffey? Does Rick Neuheisel have a soul, or rather, were you to slice open his midsection, would you find only a slimy concoction of bile, self-importance, and teeth?

We can all agree on one question, though: Karl Malone is the supreme villain in our history. Sure, you’ve got a Clemens over there, a Jabbar perhaps, the entire Oakland Raiders roster, and so on, but the Mailman is hands-down the most hated man to ever take the court against a team from Seattle. Any counterargument is nonsense.

The only great thing about Karl Malone was that he made himself so easy to hate. The flopping, the elbows, the idiotic hand-behind-the-head dunking … heck, just being a member of the Jazz was enough to make us hate him, but then he had to go and be jerkoff on top of that? Phew! We hated Karl Malone like we hated Californians who bought our real estate – because there was no conceivable reason not to.

All of which goes a long way to explaining how hard it is for me to state this: When it comes to the argument of Karl Malone or Shawn Kemp in head to head competition, it’s pretty darn hard to make a case for the Reignman. To wit:

- The two played 42 games while Kemp was a starter for the Sonics. Kemp scored 20 points or more ten times. The Mailman did it 40 times.
- Malone averaged more points, assists, rebounds, committed fewer turnovers and personal fouls, shot better from the field, and got to the line 50% more often.
- In Malone’s five best scoring efforts, he tallied 38, 35, 32, 32, 32, a total of 169 points. Kemp’s five best efforts? 29, 29, 26, 26, 26, for 136 points.
- The Mailman racked up 10+ free throws made nine times. Kemp did it thrice.
- Malone fathered one child out of wedlock, as far as we know. Kemp had at least three or four. Or five. Fine, there may have been six, but, geez, did you see the dress on that girl?

You could go on and on. Malone’s dominance was indicative of how he wound up as the second-highest scorer in league history despite a lack of 3-point shot or a dominant, Olajuwon-like post-up game. His was a battle of attrition. Malone wasn’t going to score 50 every other month, but he was going to get his 27 points, dammit, even if it took 28 shots to do it..

Still, setting aside Malone’s black-hole approach to offense, he was dominant. How dominant? Try this on for size, if you will. The Sonics battled the Jazz 25 times with Malone and Kemp as starters in the regular season. Of those 25 games, take a guess at how many times Kemp outscored the Mailman. Go on, guess.

Give up?

Zero.

That’s right, Kemp outscored Malone as often as George Karl modeled for Playgirl. 25 times the Mailman battled the Reignman in regular season play as equals, and 25 times Karl topped Kemp in the points column. I know, I know, Malone played more minutes, he took more shots (483 to 275 to be exact), yada, yada, yada.

Still, that’s incredible, right? Think back on all those clashes, all those times Malone escaped on fast breaks and threw down one of his ridiculous Kid ‘n Play dunks with his left hand behind his head … shouldn’t Kemp have prevailed at least once? He was Shawn Kemp, for crying out loud. The man child! The dunker of dunks! Only a Mormon would put up a poster of Karl Malone, but Kemp’s posters were in college dorm rooms across the country. You could get away with charging $20 for a Kemp’s Greatest Dunks DVD, but how much could you get for The Mailman’s Greatest Dunks? 37 cents? Heck, it probably came on Betamax, those moves were so played out.

Put all that aside, though. Even if you look at their playoff performances, Malone still comes out ahead in the numbers, almost absurdly so. He averaged 10 points more than Kemp did in the postseason. 10 points! C’mon, people, can you seriously consider any alternative to the notion that Karl Malone was head, shoulders, and pointy elbows above Shawn Kemp in their head-to-head play? Sure, Kemp could dunk, but what difference does that make, really? What kind of moron would dare suggest that any conclusion other than Malone’s supremacy is possible?

Raises hand meekly.

Um, this moron does. It’ll take some slight-of-hand statisticology that may qualify me for an emergency federal bailout, but I think I can make it work. Tune in tomorrow to find out.

The Reignman and The Mailman

Sunday, February 24, 1991 is not a day that jumps into the mind as a memorable one.

The Silence of the Lambs had dominated the box office that weekend, topping the lists for the second time in what would prove to be a five-week run as the top movie in the country. More importantly, the US launched ground war offenses into Iraq after six weeks of bombing, a battle which would end by the next weekend with the allied forces victorious.

But for the crowd of 12,080 gathered at the Seattle Center Colisseum that evening, it was an auspicious event, a foreshadowing of greatness in many ways, for that night, unbeknownst to anyone, was to be the first of many nights in which Shawn Kemp would take his place in the starting lineup matched up with Karl Malone.

Kemp had begun the season on the bench, and in Seattle’s first clash with Utah, a thrilling 97-96 loss at the Salt Palace, Kemp would only play 17 minutes as Michael Cage, Xavier McDaniel and Derrick McKey received the lion’s share of the forward and center minutes.

That all changed on December 7th, though, when the Sonics dealt the X-Man to Phoenix for veteran supersub Eddie Johnson. That evening in Orlando, while Johnson and McDaniel were packing their bags and journeying to their new homes, Kemp was inserted in the starting lineup, a position he would not relinquish (with the exception of a small spell in 91-92) for the better part of seven years.

It is said that the true judge of a great player is how he matches up against another great player, and there was no greater power forward in the NBA in the early 1990s than Karl Malone. Averaging close to 30 points a game and a double-digit rebounding total every night out, Malone was a fierce opponent for any player, let alone a youngster who just got the thumbs-up to drink legally less than two months before (insert alcoholism pun here).

Despite the overwhelming differences in the two teams’ records (Utah at 35-17, Seattle at a middling 24-28), the Sonics prevailed 103-91, thanks in no small part to a young Shawn Kemp’s 22 points. Still, even a true devotee of the green and gold would have to admit that Malone won the battle, even if he lost the war, as the Mailman finished with 29 points, 7 boards, and 5 assists.

Six years, and many battles, later, the two would match up again in late February, the final time Shawn Kemp and Karl Malone would face one another as members of the Sonics and Jazz, respectively. Again, Malone would win the battle, but Kemp won the war, as Malone’s 32-point night and Kemp’s 3-point (!) evening were overshadowed by a 2-point Sonic win in Salt Lake City.

In the intervening years, the two would match up no fewer than 25 times during regular season play, and another 17 times during post-season play, including, of course, the classic seven-game Western Conference Finals in 1997. In the next few days, we’ll take a closer look at how these two titans fared against one another, but for today, I’ll provide a small glimpse at their total numbers.

Regular Season Wins
Kemp 12, Malone 13

Playoff Wins
Kemp 8, Malone 9

PPG, Regular Season
Kemp 14.6, Malone 26.6

PPG, Playoffs
Kemp 16.6, Malone 26.8

Rebounds, Regular Season
Kemp 9.1, Malone 10.7

Rebounds, Playoffs
Kemp 9.6, Malone 10.8

TS%, Regular Season
Kemp 55%, Malone 57%

TS%, Playoffs
Kemp 62%, Malone 54%

You can tell that Malone dominates the raw numbers, a not unexpected occurrence considering the way he dominated the league for so long. But this study will delve a little deeper than the raw points and rebounds by which players are usually judged – and I believe, they’ll show that while the Mailman has the illusion of being far greater than Kemp, if you look closely at the numbers, and if you focus on the 10 biggest games of their careers in head-to-head competition, you might come away with a different impression altogether.