Former Sonic Update

A quick recap of how some former Sonics are faring in the pre-season:

RASHARD LEWIS
The pre-season hasn't gone as expected for the Magic's big free-agent signing this summer. A bad ankle, cramps in his leg ... it all adds up to two games played and an average of 5 points in those two contests. Ouch.

RAY ALLEN
Like Lewis, Allen has spent much of the pre-season overseas. While Lewis has been in China, Allen's been in Europe, where he's averaged 17.3 ppg in three games. So far at least, the ankle trouble he experienced last season has been a distant memory.

ANDRE BROWN
Brown has hooked on with the Grizzlies, where he's contributed 6 ppg and 3.5 rpg in two games. It appears he has a fan in coach Marc Iavaroni, who says he sees a bit of himself when he looks at Brown, who, like Iavaroni, had to get his career started overseas before returning home.

VLADIMIR RADMANOVIC
It seems like ages ago the Sonics were frustrated by the 3-point-shooting big man, but it hasn't been that long since his bizarre hairstyles were coasting up and down the court. Radman has had a banner pre-season for the Lakers, leading the club with 16 ppg to go along with 5 boards a night. Will he be pumped to put on a show in Bakersfield in front of his old club? As always, the answer is "Who the hell knows with Radman."

FLIP MURRAY
Murray is still in Detroit, and appears to have found a home there. His 8.5 ppg and 4 assists are respectable for the minutes he gets, and perhaps he has begun to accept his future as a 6th or 7th man on a good team.

Lineups, More

Contrary to previous reports, it turns out Mo Sene will not be starting tomorrow night against the Lakers. Both Kevin Pelton at supersonics.com and Percy Allen at the Times report that the lineup for Thursday night's game in Bakersfield is:

PF Nick Collison
SF Damien Wilkins
C Robert Swift
SG Kevin Durant
PG Earl Watson

Personally, I like the look of that lineup, and it certainly ties in with the defense-first mentality we keep hearing about for this year's club. Interesting that Carlesimo would make a point of mentioning how he was trying to get everyone a chance to start in the pre-season, then shelve the idea of Sene starting. Maybe Mo's chance will come later in the exhibitions.

On the injury front, Gary Washburn reports that Kevin Durant's minor injury (he got smacked in the head above his right eye) is nothing to be concerned about, and that he attended practice Wednesday none the worse for wear; likewise, Johan Petro was back in action after the heart palpatations had him resting for awhile. Delonte West, however, will not be making the trip because of a bad back. West will be checked out by the team doctor. GW's blog also mentions that Carlesimo sees Wally Szczerbiak as more of a forward than a guard.

Dislike

All the news from Los Angeles is about Kobe Bryant these days (at least, the news that isn't related to SC dropping a game at home to the Stanford Cardinal), and with the Sonics playing the Lakers tomorrow night in Bakersfield, could this be the last time Kobe suits up in a Laker jersey against the Sonics? (This is, of course, assuming he makes the trip).

Why do I care? Well, because Kobe is one of a select group of players who are almost universally hated in the NBA. With the exception of those twits who live in the 206 and own a Kobe-8 jersey, most folks around these parts would sooner wax their unmentionables before donning a Laker jersey, let alone a Kobe one.

And, being that this is the 41st season in team history (and, to be accurate, the true 40th anniversary of the team), I thought we could reminisce about the top ten most hated players in team history. I've only been a fan of the team since the early 80s, so please add your suggestions for the 60s and 70s in the comments. In reverse order:

10. Rick Barry (I'm just assuming this to be the case, being that everyone hated the Rickster)
9. Charles Barkley
8. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7. Clyde Drexler
6. Vlade Divac ("The NBA, it's Floptastic!")
5. Kevin Johnson
4. John Stockton
3. Jim McIlvaine (zing!)
2. Kobe Bryant
1. Karl Malone

I'll take arguments on the other 9, but no opposing player in the history of the Seattle professional basketball ever received as many boos as Karl Malone. Sorry, but that one is in concrete.

Minutia

It’s somewhat surprising considering he’s coaching a young team coming off two straight losing seasons, but one of PJ Carlesimo’s biggest problems this season may be how to divide up the minutes amongst his charges.

After all, a team which struggles to win has one or two decent players and a host of scrubs, so distributing minutes isn’t so difficult. But look at the competition at each of the positions:

C – Kurt Thomas, Bob Swift, Johan Petro, Mo Sene. Obviously, Swift and Thomas are the upper-class in this group, but Petro is at least as talented as most of the backup centers in the league, and Sene has potential. In a perfect world, the Sonics would have two or three guys competing for minutes, and either a rookie or a older player who would have to be content with sitting. But sitting Petro or Sene all season isn’t a great idea. Unfortunately, it may have to be the option PJ takes, unless GM Sam Presti manages to nab a draft pick for either Sene (possible) or Petro (more likely).

PF – Chris Wilcox, Nick Collison. Carlesimo admitted to the beat reporters (from Eric Williams at TNT: “Carlesimo said it’s a tough situation for both players because he believes that each player deserves more than 24 minutes each.”) this isn’t an easy situion. The key to the whole thing may be this quote from Carlesimo, also from Williams’ story: “There’s not enough minutes there for the two of them unless we give one of them time at (center), and I don’t want to do that initially.” The key word being, initially. To my way of thinking, Swift is going to miss at least a quarter of the season with injury-related problems, and that leaves a big hole for Collison to fill. Don’t forget, also, that Jeff Green would normally get more than a few minutes here.

SF – Jeff Green, Wally Szczerbiak, Damien Wilkins, Mickael Gelabale, Kevin Durant. Phew, that’s a lot of names. How do you divvy up 48 minutes into four or five guys (four, if KD takes up residence full-time a SG)? The key will be the fact that SF and SG are interchangeable positions in this new NBA era. Just because Durant starts at SG doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be a SG for all 30-odd minutes he’s on the court. Same with Wilkins or Wally W. However, someone is going to suffer and that someone appears to be Gelabale. Luckily for Gelly, he’s backing up one of the most injury-prone guys around in Szczerbiak.

SG – Kevin Durant, Delonte West, Damien Wilkins. Wilkins has looked solid so far in the pre-season, but West and Durant are two of the best players on the team, if not the two best. D-West will likely spend 5-10 minutes a night playing point guard, and Wilkins could be ameliorated with splitting his time between SG and SF. It’s still a crowded spot, though.

PG – Earl Watson, Luke Ridnour, Delonte West. The mother of all distribution problems for this team. Watson and Ridnour had trouble sharing the starting spot last year, and while they’ve said the right things so far, if this team gets off to a crappy start (and that’s entirely possible when you look at the November schedule, which calls for a five-game road trip and home games against Phoenix, Utah, Detroit, New Jersey, and San Antonio), the good ship Point Guard may begin to spring a leak.

The bottom line is that this is a year of transition for the Sonics, and it seems more and more likely that the new management wants to spend the regular season as an extended exhibition for the future of this franchise. Watson or Ridnour? Wait and see how it plays out; heck, OJ Mayo might the actual answer rather than either of those two guys. Can Green hack it as a starting 3? Well, we’ve got five months to figure that out. Is Swift ready to contribute 8-10 points and the same amount of rebounds on a nightly basis? Again, check back at the end of the year.

Honestly, that’s the best way to approach it, and as a Sonic fan you have to have some reassurance knowing that Rick Sund or Wally Walker aren’t the ones driving the ship anymore. Presti – at least so far – has been all aces on his decision-making, and knowing he’s the one deciding which players are the ones to keep makes this Sonic fan feel much better.

Senelicious

After his surprising 15-rebound game against Indiana over the weekend, the Sonics' resident Senegalese center, Mo Sene, found himself featured in not one, not two, but all three of the Seattle dailies today. Usually that sort of coverage is reserved for, oh, I don't know, a guy who might have a chance at being a starter, but, well, it's pre-season and everyone's got stories to fill.

Unfortunately, one game does not a season make. If you watched Sene in the summer league, you know there are holes in his game as wide as Danny Fortson's now-departed backside. For every athletic block, there are four missed assignments. Those misses don't show up on his stat sheet, but they show up on the final score, and that second number is much more important.

But enough negativity; let's give credit to Sene for his ability to shake off the D-League expectations he's facing this fall and show that he can play with the big boys. Does it merit a start against the Lakers in Bakersfield? No, I don't think so, but apparently PJ Carlesimo does. Personally, I'd rather see more minutes for Bob Swift or Nick Collison.

Monday Report

We read plenty about Kevin Durant in the local dailies, so it's interesting to see what the papers from the towns the Sonics are visiting have to say about the phenom. Here's Brian Windhorst's opinion about KD, and, as you can imagine, it's focused on the LeBron-KD similarities.

Elsewhere, it appears the injury bug bit Damien Wilkins, but his ankle is not broken (it's a sprain) and he should be able to participate again soon. Bob Swift is still taking it easy after perhaps going at it too hard earlier in the pre-season, and Delonte West is suffering from a mild back strain.

On a side statistical note, Durant is averaging 20 points per 33 minutes (a random number I picked as a best guess at his per-game average this season) to go with 6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 2.4 turnovers. Oh, and he's shooting almost 50% from behind the 3-point line.

Yep, just another 6'9" shooting guard who hits 50% beyond the arc.

Where Are They Now

First a quick update on Sedale Threatt. If you read this blog and TrueHoop, you already know this story, but in case you missed it, here’s a quick recap.

Not only is Threatt teaching basketball in Australia (as we noted last week), he’s also the father of 14 children, as this New York Times story from Michael Weinreb explains (including this chilling quote from Sedale Threatt, Jr.: “The No. 1 lesson my father did teach me is how not to be a father.” I’m guessing Hallmark won’t be including that in their cards next June). It’s a great story, though, and makes you want to nominate Threatt Junior and his mother for political office, or at least a daily talk show, because they’re just good people.

That said, what are the odds that Shawn Kemp did not father the most kids in Sonic history? Would you have even thought that it was possible he’d rank behind somebody else, let alone Sedale Threatt of all people? Come to think of it, Threatt and Kemp were joined on the 90-91 Sonics with Quintin Dailey – how may kids do you think ol’ Q had? I’m almost at the point where I expect to read that Warren Jeffs was the assistant trainer for that team.

But enough of that, on with your Friday Where Are They Now:

OLDEN POLYNICE – The 7-footer from Haiti who lasted an astounding 17 years in the NBA is now, even more unbelievably, a head coach. Granted it’s with the Long Beach Breakers of the ABA, but if you could have made a teaser bet in 1987 that OP would 1) play 1,000 games in the NBA and 2) eventually become a head coach, I think you might have made a fair bit of change. (Bonus note: the Breakers’ web site doesn’t have a roster yet, but they do have a dance team. At least they’ve got their priorities in order).

SCOOTER MCCRAY – McCray only lasted in Seattle for two seasons, and in the NBA for three, but the former Louisville standout hasn’t let that stop him from being a success off the court. McCray currently runs a number of La-Z-Boy stores in the Louisville area. I can think of at least one former Sonic who’d be a natural endorser.

MARTY CONLON – I always think of Conlon as having played 30 years ago for the Sonics, but he just retired last year from pro ball, spending the past half-decade in Europe. In addition, Conlon captained the Irish National Team, and currently lives in Manhattan where he does some coaching for prospective players.

Exhibitionists

It’s been strange so far for Sonic fans waiting for Kevin Durant to blossom. Everything we hear about the guy is so flattering, you half expect him to take off from half court and dunk.

And yet, after summer league and one pre-season game, well, he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, has he? His summer league numbers were excused because he was surrounded by less than NBA-quality talent, and the way he wowed everyone at the Team USA trial kind of amped up the excitement. His first pre-season game was less than thrilling, though, and it got me to wondering: Do pre-season stats really matter at all?

The received opinion has always been that pre-season numbers are as relevant as a politician’s promises on the campaign trail. Whether they’re good, bad, or indifferent, they don’t tell us what’s going to happen during the upcoming 82-game marathon. In fact, you can almost hear the cliches organization’s trot out when things don’t go as planned:

“He’s getting his feet wet. We’re confident that as he adjusts to the speed of NBA games he’ll feel right at home.” (We don’t know what the hell is the matter with this kid. Let’s just hope he figures it out before my contract is up.)

“We’ve been pleasantly surprised with what he’s given us.” (Thank God the Knicks picked the 6’11” Lithuanian I wanted, because this kid’s definitely better.)

“We’re sure his shot will start to fall as soon as he gets used to our playbook.” (Crap, we’re paying this bum for the next three years, and he can’t hit an open 15-footer?)

Well, I decided to take a look at last year’s crop of rookies and see how their pre-season stats compared to their regular season ones. I looked at 16 players who played regular minutes in both the pre- and regular seasons and tallied their numbers in four categories – field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, points per 48 minutes, and tendex rating per 48 minutes (thanks to www.dougstats.com for the information, and to RJ for pointing out in the comments where I could find the info). Here’s some rough data, then interpretation:

Field Goal Percentage: Almost a 1:1 relationship; the players shot an almost meaningless 0.8% better during the regular season than during the pre-season.

3-Point Percentage: An exact 1:1 relationship.

Points per 48: Players scored 13% better in the pre-season than in the regular season.

Tendex per 48: Almost a perfect relationship, as players put up merely 3% better numbers in pre-season than in the regular season.

As you can see, with the exception of points per 48 minutes, there is a strong correlation between the pre-season numbers and the regular season ones. If you looked at the numbers as a whole, you might wonder why I’m not jumping off a bridge because of Durant’s middling play. Here’s why:

There’s a huge difference between top of the first round guys and bottom of the first and second round guys. For some reason, high draft picks – at least in the 2006 class – did much better in the regular season than in the pre-season, and the opposite was true for the lower class folks. There are a number of possibilities as to the cause – perhaps the lower-picked guys worked extra hard in the pre-season to wind jobs, maybe the higher guys knew they had roles already and they didn’t feel the need to over-exert, who knows. And, again, this is a small sample size. If I can find data on previous pre-seasons, I’ll run that as well just to see if this is an isolated occurrence or a regular one.

For the time being, though, I would suggest you resist the urge to worry about Kevin Durant. The fact he hasn’t exploded for any huge games is likely not a big deal, and the odds of him being a Olowokandi-esque bust are slim. (Right? Right?) Just as we can’t expect Javaris Crittenden to average 18 points a game this season, don’t expect KD to be wallowing in the lower teens.

Rookie Report

A quick look at what’s happening to the draftees of 2007:

1. Greg Oden – Ouch
2. Kevin Durant – 12 ppg, 3 rpb, 0 apg
3. Al Horford – 8.5, 7, 1
4. Mike Conley- 4, 1, 3
5. Jeff Green – 6, 2, 2
6. Chairman Yi – 7.5, 2, 1
7. Corey Brewer – 2, 2.5, 1
8. Brandan Wright – 0, 0, 0
9. Joakim Noah – 6, 4, 4
10. Spencer Hawes – Ouch
11. Acie Law – 7.5, 2, 3
12. Thaddeus Young – 7, 1, 0
13. Julian Wright – 5.5, 9, 2.5
14. Al Thornton – 13.5, 8, 0.5
15. Rodney Stuckey – 15, 1, 0
16. Nick Young – 2, 1, 0
17. Sean Williams- 0
18. Marco Belinelli – 8, 0, 0
19. Javaris Crittenton – 18, 1, 1
20. Jason Smith – 7, 7, 0
21. Daequan Cook – 7, 2, 0
22. Jared Dudley - 0
23. Wilson Chandler – 9, 6, 1
24. Rudy Fernandez - 0
25. Morris Almond – 10, 5, 0
26. Aaron Brooks - 0
27. Arron Afflalo – 9, 3, 2
28. Tiago Splitter - 0
29. Alando Tucker -
30. Petteri Koponen – 0

That’s just a down-and-dirty look at only two games or less. I’ll try to keep it updated as training camp progresses, as well as throw in a few 2nd-rounders as their play merits.

Mask

Looks like the idea of Luke Ridnour donning a mask will come to fruition. All 3 dailies report today that the young point guard has a "non displaced fracture of the nasal bone," which means for the next 4 to 5 weeks he'll be sporting a mask. Ridnour was hurt about halfway into the first quarter of the Kings game the other night when he got an up close and personal interview with Ron Artest's elbow, and it's unknown if he'll play in both, either, or neither of the back-to-back games coming up on the road this weekend. Considering the importance, or lack thereof, of training camp games, is it really necessary to risk any more problems?


More importantly, what will Frodo's mask look like? There's always this possibility, or this one, or even this one.


But, heck, Halloween is right around the corner, right? And the Sonics are hungry for money, right? So wouldn't it be a perfect tie-in if Ridnour were to emerge on the court at the next Sonic home game with, oh, I don't know, something that looks like this?

One in the Books

The big news out of last night's loss was Luke Ridnour's broken (?) nose, suffered at the elbow of Ron Artest in the first quarter. Ridnour will have a CT scan today to determine if indeed the nose is broken. It remains to be seen if he will sport a Rip Hamilton-style face mask. Perhaps he can borrow Nick Collison's from a year or so ago.

In other news from the game, it appears that Bob Swift played well before tiring down the stretch, Johan Petro was a foul machine, Delonte West played pretty well, the Sonics turned the ball over waaaaaay too much, Damien Wilkins made the most of his starting nod with 18 points in 27 minutes, Jeff Green was a non-factor, and Chris Wilcox did well.

Oh, and what's that rookie's name again? Right, Kevin Durant. Well, The Franchise wasn't exactly earth-shattering in his debut, only picking up 12 points, but he showed a nice touch on the jumpers I saw on the news, and he was poor at the line for some strange reason. As all the reporters said, chalk it up to a first-game learning experience.

The Omen

Looks like Damien Wilkins will get the call for the Sonics' first pre-season game, and not Jeff Green.

Percy Allen reports in his Sonics' blog that the starting five for tonight's game with Sacto are:

Ridnour, Durant, Wilkins, Collison, and Swift

Wow, I've got to agree with Allen that Bob Swift in the starting lineup is not something I expected to see, and likewise with Collison replacing Wilcox, although the recent minor injury troubles for Weezy might have played a role. And The Omen? Who saw that coming?

And, it's entirely possible that Carlesimo is just interested in seeing how certain fit together. As he and the rest of the coaching staff have said repeatedly, this is just another version of practice and we shouldn't read anything into who starts or gets the most minutes. At this point, it's a case of the coaches getting a better feel for their roster.