Glory Days of '05

As bad as the Sonics have been this year – and it’s been bad – you’ve got to wonder, why the heck are they so terrible? With Lewis, Allen, Wilcox, and Ridnour, you’ve got four average to above-average players, and Collison and Watson are decent bench players, so why is this team struggling so much?

First off, I don’t accept the injury excuse. Robert Swift’s injury, while damaging, is nowhere near as big a deal as the team’s supporters would lead you to believe. And don’t let that “strong pre-season” crap of Swift’s supporters mislead you either. It wasn’t a strong pre-season at all, unless you consider a 33% mark from the field strong. Or 6.7 fouls per 40 minutes. Or 4.2 turnovers per 40 minutes. Obviously, Swift would have been better than Petro, but does that really mean anything? The question is, would Swift have been a significant improvement over Collison and/or Fortson? And, beyond that, considering Collison has gone for 20-10 in each of the past two games – both losses – doesn’t that indicate that it doesn’t matter anyways?

I thought it might help to see what the difference is between this version of the Sonics and the 2004-05 edition. Here’s a quick rundown of the numbers.

FG%
2005: 44
2007: 46

FG% Allowed
2005: 46
2007: 48

3FG
2005: 36.5
2007: 34

3FG Allowed:
2005: 36
2007: 35

Rebounds-Opponents Rebounds
2005: 41-38
2007: 39-41

Steals-Opponents Steals
2005: 7-6
2007: 8-7

Fouls-Opponents Fouls
2005: 24-24
2007: 23-20

TO-Opponents TO
2005: 14-13
2007: 16-16

FTA-Opponents FTA
2005: 26-26
2007: 23-26

FGA-Opponents FGA
2005: 79-78
2007: 81-80

3FGA-Opponents 3FGA
2005: 22-16
2007: 16-16

Offensive-Defensive Efficiency
2005: 108-106
2007: 108-111

Okay, that’s a lot of statistics to absorb before lunchtime. A few things stand out, though:

1. The Sonics are taking way fewer 3 pointers than they were in 2005, even though they shoot almost as well (36% then to 34% now). I think it might be a good idea to let Damien Wilkins and Luke Ridnour to take more 3’s, considering both of them are hitting close to 40% from beyond the arc.

2. The Sonics are not getting to the line nearly as much as they were before. In 2005, there were five Sonics averaging 3 or more trips to the line a night. In 2007, that has dropped to three players. The biggest difference is Antonio Daniels, who visited the stripe 4 times a night. Contrast that to Earl Watson, who gets there bi-weekly. It’s a bizarre double-dip for a team to decrease both their outside attempts and foul-line attempts in the same season, but that’s the Sonics for you.

3. Rebounding. This is especially noticeable on the defensive end, where the Sonics get killed on a regular basis. Reggie Evans is the key difference, obviously, as no one’s even close to his nearly 10 boards a night.

What can we draw from all of this? Is it helpless?

I think the only solution is to hope for help in the draft. Trading away Rashard or Ray is a short-term fix, and while it would be nice to get out from under Ray’s mammoth contract, he’s not hurting this team. The same goes for Rashard. All the Sonics need is a strong big man who can block shots and rebound.

Perhaps this guy might do the trick.

Sene Sent Down; Sonics Go Down As Well

The Sonics have sent Mouhamed Sene to Idaho.

No, Bob Hill hasn't decided Sene is better off peeling potatoes, he's only hoping the young center will be able to improve his skills with more minutes. Of course, this was obvious in October, but then, the Sonics don't like to make quick decisions. After all, it's always better to let a guy sit around for 4 months and play 10 minutes every 3 weeks to develop his confidence, right? After all, look how well Johan Petro has played this year. Oh, wait ...

In other news, the Sonics have apparently decided the best way to lose is to lead in the first half and blow chunks in the second. After experimenting with the "fall apart in the 1st quarter and then pretend to mount a comeback" theory popularized by Bob Weiss last year and continued with Hill, they have now settled on the "look good early until the other team gets over its marijuana hangover from the night before and realizes they're losing to the Sonics" routine. It's worked well the past two nights, with equally depressing results.

Depressing, that is, until you look at the standings, where the Sonics are currently only two losses behind Memphis for the most in the league, and the odds-on spot to grab Greg Oden. The Hawks are coming on strong, though, posting a 1-9 mark in their past 10 to rival Seattle's 2-8 spot. Unfortunately, the Sonics still have five more home games coming up on this homestand, with two of them aggravatingly winnable.

Put simply, the Sonics are going to need to find new ways to lose. I suggest looking into Olden Polynice's whereabouts, or perhaps activating Danny Vranes from the taxi squad.

Sonics Lose; Nick Collison for MVP

As expected, the Sonics lost to the Suns last night in Phoenix. As expected, Steve Nash played well, Shawn Marion played well, and Ray Allen played well.

Unexpectedly, Nick Collison did an impersonation of Wes Unseld.

Collison shocked the world by scoring 29 points and grabbing 21 (!) boards against the Suns, including 10 points in the 4th quarter alone. The Sonics led for most of the first half, but failed in the second half, as they only put 42 on the board in the second after hitting 60 in the first. Most notably, Chris Wilcox (can we start calling him a bust yet?) went scoreless in the second half.

The Ridnour benching continues, with Watson getting 36 minutes to Frodo's 15. Also of note, Mickael Gelabale played a career-high 43 mintues, and scored in double figures for the third consecutive game, helped by his 65% shooting over that span. In his last five games, Gelabale has hit 20 of 30 shots from the field, an astounding number for a perimeter player. The Omen can't be too happy about that.

What happens next? The Sonics host Gary Payton and the Heat tonight at the Key (sadly, the Heat dancers have remained in Florida). Miami has lost 5 of 6, including a 28 point loss to the same Suns the Sonics played pretty well last night. Don't expect to see too much of Gary; he only played 5 minutes against the Blazers after D Wade returned to the lineup.

Shockingly, I think the Sonics might win tonight. If they weren't on the second of a back-to-back and if Miami hadn't been resting for a couple of days, I'd have even more confidence. Still, all things considered, I'll pick the Sonics to win by 7.