We read plenty about Kevin Durant in the local dailies, so it's interesting to see what the papers from the towns the Sonics are visiting have to say about the phenom. Here's Brian Windhorst's opinion about KD, and, as you can imagine, it's focused on the LeBron-KD similarities.
Elsewhere, it appears the injury bug bit Damien Wilkins, but his ankle is not broken (it's a sprain) and he should be able to participate again soon. Bob Swift is still taking it easy after perhaps going at it too hard earlier in the pre-season, and Delonte West is suffering from a mild back strain.
On a side statistical note, Durant is averaging 20 points per 33 minutes (a random number I picked as a best guess at his per-game average this season) to go with 6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 2.4 turnovers. Oh, and he's shooting almost 50% from behind the 3-point line.
Yep, just another 6'9" shooting guard who hits 50% beyond the arc.
Monday, October 15
Friday, October 12
Where Are They Now
First a quick update on Sedale Threatt. If you read this blog and TrueHoop, you already know this story, but in case you missed it, here’s a quick recap.
Not only is Threatt teaching basketball in Australia (as we noted last week), he’s also the father of 14 children, as this New York Times story from Michael Weinreb explains (including this chilling quote from Sedale Threatt, Jr.: “The No. 1 lesson my father did teach me is how not to be a father.” I’m guessing Hallmark won’t be including that in their cards next June). It’s a great story, though, and makes you want to nominate Threatt Junior and his mother for political office, or at least a daily talk show, because they’re just good people.
That said, what are the odds that Shawn Kemp did not father the most kids in Sonic history? Would you have even thought that it was possible he’d rank behind somebody else, let alone Sedale Threatt of all people? Come to think of it, Threatt and Kemp were joined on the 90-91 Sonics with Quintin Dailey – how may kids do you think ol’ Q had? I’m almost at the point where I expect to read that Warren Jeffs was the assistant trainer for that team.
But enough of that, on with your Friday Where Are They Now:
OLDEN POLYNICE – The 7-footer from Haiti who lasted an astounding 17 years in the NBA is now, even more unbelievably, a head coach. Granted it’s with the Long Beach Breakers of the ABA, but if you could have made a teaser bet in 1987 that OP would 1) play 1,000 games in the NBA and 2) eventually become a head coach, I think you might have made a fair bit of change. (Bonus note: the Breakers’ web site doesn’t have a roster yet, but they do have a dance team. At least they’ve got their priorities in order).
SCOOTER MCCRAY – McCray only lasted in Seattle for two seasons, and in the NBA for three, but the former Louisville standout hasn’t let that stop him from being a success off the court. McCray currently runs a number of La-Z-Boy stores in the Louisville area. I can think of at least one former Sonic who’d be a natural endorser.
MARTY CONLON – I always think of Conlon as having played 30 years ago for the Sonics, but he just retired last year from pro ball, spending the past half-decade in Europe. In addition, Conlon captained the Irish National Team, and currently lives in Manhattan where he does some coaching for prospective players.
Not only is Threatt teaching basketball in Australia (as we noted last week), he’s also the father of 14 children, as this New York Times story from Michael Weinreb explains (including this chilling quote from Sedale Threatt, Jr.: “The No. 1 lesson my father did teach me is how not to be a father.” I’m guessing Hallmark won’t be including that in their cards next June). It’s a great story, though, and makes you want to nominate Threatt Junior and his mother for political office, or at least a daily talk show, because they’re just good people.
That said, what are the odds that Shawn Kemp did not father the most kids in Sonic history? Would you have even thought that it was possible he’d rank behind somebody else, let alone Sedale Threatt of all people? Come to think of it, Threatt and Kemp were joined on the 90-91 Sonics with Quintin Dailey – how may kids do you think ol’ Q had? I’m almost at the point where I expect to read that Warren Jeffs was the assistant trainer for that team.
But enough of that, on with your Friday Where Are They Now:
OLDEN POLYNICE – The 7-footer from Haiti who lasted an astounding 17 years in the NBA is now, even more unbelievably, a head coach. Granted it’s with the Long Beach Breakers of the ABA, but if you could have made a teaser bet in 1987 that OP would 1) play 1,000 games in the NBA and 2) eventually become a head coach, I think you might have made a fair bit of change. (Bonus note: the Breakers’ web site doesn’t have a roster yet, but they do have a dance team. At least they’ve got their priorities in order).
SCOOTER MCCRAY – McCray only lasted in Seattle for two seasons, and in the NBA for three, but the former Louisville standout hasn’t let that stop him from being a success off the court. McCray currently runs a number of La-Z-Boy stores in the Louisville area. I can think of at least one former Sonic who’d be a natural endorser.
MARTY CONLON – I always think of Conlon as having played 30 years ago for the Sonics, but he just retired last year from pro ball, spending the past half-decade in Europe. In addition, Conlon captained the Irish National Team, and currently lives in Manhattan where he does some coaching for prospective players.
Exhibitionists
It’s been strange so far for Sonic fans waiting for Kevin Durant to blossom. Everything we hear about the guy is so flattering, you half expect him to take off from half court and dunk.
And yet, after summer league and one pre-season game, well, he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, has he? His summer league numbers were excused because he was surrounded by less than NBA-quality talent, and the way he wowed everyone at the Team USA trial kind of amped up the excitement. His first pre-season game was less than thrilling, though, and it got me to wondering: Do pre-season stats really matter at all?
The received opinion has always been that pre-season numbers are as relevant as a politician’s promises on the campaign trail. Whether they’re good, bad, or indifferent, they don’t tell us what’s going to happen during the upcoming 82-game marathon. In fact, you can almost hear the cliches organization’s trot out when things don’t go as planned:
“He’s getting his feet wet. We’re confident that as he adjusts to the speed of NBA games he’ll feel right at home.” (We don’t know what the hell is the matter with this kid. Let’s just hope he figures it out before my contract is up.)
“We’ve been pleasantly surprised with what he’s given us.” (Thank God the Knicks picked the 6’11” Lithuanian I wanted, because this kid’s definitely better.)
“We’re sure his shot will start to fall as soon as he gets used to our playbook.” (Crap, we’re paying this bum for the next three years, and he can’t hit an open 15-footer?)
Well, I decided to take a look at last year’s crop of rookies and see how their pre-season stats compared to their regular season ones. I looked at 16 players who played regular minutes in both the pre- and regular seasons and tallied their numbers in four categories – field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, points per 48 minutes, and tendex rating per 48 minutes (thanks to www.dougstats.com for the information, and to RJ for pointing out in the comments where I could find the info). Here’s some rough data, then interpretation:
Field Goal Percentage: Almost a 1:1 relationship; the players shot an almost meaningless 0.8% better during the regular season than during the pre-season.
3-Point Percentage: An exact 1:1 relationship.
Points per 48: Players scored 13% better in the pre-season than in the regular season.
Tendex per 48: Almost a perfect relationship, as players put up merely 3% better numbers in pre-season than in the regular season.
As you can see, with the exception of points per 48 minutes, there is a strong correlation between the pre-season numbers and the regular season ones. If you looked at the numbers as a whole, you might wonder why I’m not jumping off a bridge because of Durant’s middling play. Here’s why:
There’s a huge difference between top of the first round guys and bottom of the first and second round guys. For some reason, high draft picks – at least in the 2006 class – did much better in the regular season than in the pre-season, and the opposite was true for the lower class folks. There are a number of possibilities as to the cause – perhaps the lower-picked guys worked extra hard in the pre-season to wind jobs, maybe the higher guys knew they had roles already and they didn’t feel the need to over-exert, who knows. And, again, this is a small sample size. If I can find data on previous pre-seasons, I’ll run that as well just to see if this is an isolated occurrence or a regular one.
For the time being, though, I would suggest you resist the urge to worry about Kevin Durant. The fact he hasn’t exploded for any huge games is likely not a big deal, and the odds of him being a Olowokandi-esque bust are slim. (Right? Right?) Just as we can’t expect Javaris Crittenden to average 18 points a game this season, don’t expect KD to be wallowing in the lower teens.
And yet, after summer league and one pre-season game, well, he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, has he? His summer league numbers were excused because he was surrounded by less than NBA-quality talent, and the way he wowed everyone at the Team USA trial kind of amped up the excitement. His first pre-season game was less than thrilling, though, and it got me to wondering: Do pre-season stats really matter at all?
The received opinion has always been that pre-season numbers are as relevant as a politician’s promises on the campaign trail. Whether they’re good, bad, or indifferent, they don’t tell us what’s going to happen during the upcoming 82-game marathon. In fact, you can almost hear the cliches organization’s trot out when things don’t go as planned:
“He’s getting his feet wet. We’re confident that as he adjusts to the speed of NBA games he’ll feel right at home.” (We don’t know what the hell is the matter with this kid. Let’s just hope he figures it out before my contract is up.)
“We’ve been pleasantly surprised with what he’s given us.” (Thank God the Knicks picked the 6’11” Lithuanian I wanted, because this kid’s definitely better.)
“We’re sure his shot will start to fall as soon as he gets used to our playbook.” (Crap, we’re paying this bum for the next three years, and he can’t hit an open 15-footer?)
Well, I decided to take a look at last year’s crop of rookies and see how their pre-season stats compared to their regular season ones. I looked at 16 players who played regular minutes in both the pre- and regular seasons and tallied their numbers in four categories – field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, points per 48 minutes, and tendex rating per 48 minutes (thanks to www.dougstats.com for the information, and to RJ for pointing out in the comments where I could find the info). Here’s some rough data, then interpretation:
Field Goal Percentage: Almost a 1:1 relationship; the players shot an almost meaningless 0.8% better during the regular season than during the pre-season.
3-Point Percentage: An exact 1:1 relationship.
Points per 48: Players scored 13% better in the pre-season than in the regular season.
Tendex per 48: Almost a perfect relationship, as players put up merely 3% better numbers in pre-season than in the regular season.
As you can see, with the exception of points per 48 minutes, there is a strong correlation between the pre-season numbers and the regular season ones. If you looked at the numbers as a whole, you might wonder why I’m not jumping off a bridge because of Durant’s middling play. Here’s why:
There’s a huge difference between top of the first round guys and bottom of the first and second round guys. For some reason, high draft picks – at least in the 2006 class – did much better in the regular season than in the pre-season, and the opposite was true for the lower class folks. There are a number of possibilities as to the cause – perhaps the lower-picked guys worked extra hard in the pre-season to wind jobs, maybe the higher guys knew they had roles already and they didn’t feel the need to over-exert, who knows. And, again, this is a small sample size. If I can find data on previous pre-seasons, I’ll run that as well just to see if this is an isolated occurrence or a regular one.
For the time being, though, I would suggest you resist the urge to worry about Kevin Durant. The fact he hasn’t exploded for any huge games is likely not a big deal, and the odds of him being a Olowokandi-esque bust are slim. (Right? Right?) Just as we can’t expect Javaris Crittenden to average 18 points a game this season, don’t expect KD to be wallowing in the lower teens.
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