Sonics Lottery: We're number 4!

Let the speculation begin.

The Sonics, one year removed from having two of the top five picks in the draft, will have the 4th pick in this year's draft, as announced at the lottery selection this evening in New Jersey.

Seattle had a 38.7% chance of getting one of the top two picks, but instead fell to number four, the lowest possible slot they could have occupied. Among the likely possibilities for the team are:

Brook Lopez
OJ Mayo
Jerryd Bayless
Eric Gordon
DeAndre Jordan
Anyone not named Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley

Man, that just blows. It's not enough that Seattle fans had to suffer through a season of complete ineptitude, but now we lose a shot at getting one of the two preeminent players in the draft.

If you care, Chicago-Miami-Minnesota went 1-2-3. And somewhere in Memphis, Michael Heisley just wondered what the hell he has to do get a good draft choice.

Re-Seedings

There was plenty of talk about re-working the seedings for the NBA playoffs this season, especially due to the overwhelming power of the Western Conference. It reached the point that even His Royal Highness David Stern threw his two cents in and admitted the league was considering revamping the settings in the offseason.

Personally, I always thought it was ridiculous. If you’re going to re-seed the playoffs, why even bother having conferences? Why not just have a 30-team league with no conferences or divisions?

As a small bit of evidence of why it is foolish to throw out the existing system, here is a one small bit of statistical evidence. One – and, mind you, just one – way of measuring a team’s effectiveness is to look at the number of points they score per 100 possessions, and the number of points they allow per 100 possessions. This allows for a team’s pace in a way that pure PPG cannot. Herewith, the top seven teams in the differential between points scored and allowed per 100 possessions:

1. Boston, 11.3
2. Detroit, 8.5
3. Lakers, 7.5
4. Utah, 7.3
5. New Orleans, 5.8
6. Orlando, 5.8
7. San Antonio, 5.4

So, in essence, the three best teams are right where they are supposed to be. Honestly, the only team I can see that has a legitimate gripe about re-seeding the playoffs is the Jazz, who were forced to overtake the Lakers, rather than the Magic or another Eastern Conference team. (And, honestly, I’m not about to go back and re-seed the playoffs to see who the Jazz “should” have faced in the 2nd round; if you’ve got that sort of time on your hands, by all means, let me know).

What does it all mean, then? To my way of thinking, it means this: The current system, while not perfect, seems to deliver what it is supposed to – the four best teams in the league are playing for the right to play in the Finals in two weeks.

What more do you want than that?

(B)Lotto

(image from A View From the Cheap Seats)

So, tonight's the night. The Sonics find out whether they will be able to land Derrick Rose (please, please, please), or someone else.

The pessimist in me sees the Sonics falling to #4 and taking OJ Majo, only to find out that he's wanted for some crime in West Virginia and will have to play with an ankle bracelet for his first two seasons. Or, they take Danilo Gallinari so that they can have three small forwards, all drafted in the top five of the draft.

But let's be sensible. Assume the Sonics get the #4 pick (the most likely option based on probability) and Derrick Rose is off the table. Who do you take with that pick? Mayo is certainly a possibility, as is Brook Lopez from Stanford or Jerryd Bayless from Arizona.

Personally, I'd hold my nose and take Lopez, assuming Beasley, Rose, and Bayless are 1-2-3. He's got good size and strength and has a good touch from the line. It worries me that a guy 7' and 260 shot less than 50% from the field in college, and extrapolating that figure to the NBA worries me even more. Still, he, along with Mayo, would probably be the most likely options for the Sonics at #4. And, if OJ Mayo is your toughest competition, you're probably going to win that battle.

However, there is another option - if the Sonics don't get one of the top two picks, they could parlay their pick (say it's #4) in combination with the #24 pick and/or multiple second-round picks to move up to the top two. To me, it's a no-brainer - Derrick Rose fits a need for this team more than any other player in the draft. The #24 pick is going to be a risk anyways, as are the second-rounders, and giving up multiple risks for a singular certainty is always a smart move in my book.