Friday, September 9

Radmanovic

Let’s get right to it. In my mind, there were 3 key questions to Seattle’s summer:

1. Should we sign Ray Allen?
2. Should we sign Nate McMillan?
3. Should we sign Vladimir Radmanovic?

The first two are in the books and now it’s time to decide Radman’s fate. I’ve been looking at the figures for awhile, and floating from the “Don’t give that Eurotrash a 7-year contract” camp to the “Without Radman, we’re screwed” camp, and back again.

I’ve come to this opinion:

Vladimir Radmanovic, while uniquely talented offensively, ain’t worth $50 million.

Let’s face it, you can count on one hand the number of guys in this league who can do the things Radman can. Hit 3’s? Yes. Run the court? Yes. Play matador defense? Youbetcha. I know this is going to sound crazy, but Vladimir is truly a poor man’s Dirk Nowitzki, or a rich man’s Tim Thomas.

The major knock against Radman is his defense, and it’s justified. His Defensive Rating (courtesy of basketball-reference.com) measures out to 109 points per 100 possessions. Without context, that’s a meaningless stat, so here’s some context:

Nowitzki, 100
Donyell Marshall, 105
Keith Van Horn, 108
Tim Thomas, 111
Tayshuan Prince, 104
Reggie Evans, 105
Nick Collison, 107

Basically, Radman’s on the lower end of the scale, which is what you’d expect. However, 82games.com expands their statistics to include when players are on and off the court. When Vlade was on the court last year, the Sonics allowed 109.9 pts/100 poss. When he sat, they allowed 110.9, indicating he didn’t hurt the team at all. Interestingly, Sugar Ray’s nemesis, Bruce Bowen, posted nearly identical figures (you can see them here).

However, you can look at the stats even more closely, and see how his opponents did against him with Vlade on defense. In reality, he made average players into stars, as indicated by the fact that players averaged 24, 20, and 26 pp48 min. at SF, PF, and C with Radman on defense. Compare that to almost any other Sonic, and you’ll see that Vlade is inferior. In fact, I’d wager that when Vlade wasn’t wearing sweatpants, the other 4 players on the court saw their defensive numbers get better, simply because the other team was feeding Vlade’s guy.

Folks, Vlade’s defense is what will always relegate him to sixth-man status for any legit playoff team. With Rashard Lewis’ contract due for renewal after next season, the Sonics cannot afford to tie themselves down to Sugar Ray and Vlade. Lewis has another 5-7 years of greatness before he starts to fade. Vlade does not.

Just say no, Rick.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree. It appears as though the Sonics management's model for future success includes fiscal responsibility. If that is so, it makes sense to not overpay (when you think of Rad with a big contract, you will basically have Keith Van Horn). Don't do it. Let him have the 1 year deal and let him walk. Nick is the future of the PF position, Rashard is the SF. We should always be able to find someone tall who can shoot and play the 3/4 positions. Indiana would love to trade us Ausin Croshere, Dallas would move Keith Van Horn. Radman is not replaceable. He is a nice player for the right price. In fact, I will go farther and say that the team would benefit more with a player like Donyell Marshall playing minutes at the 4. He plays defense and rebounds.

Anonymous said...

oops, on that last post I meant to say "Radman is not irreplaceable", not "replaceable"..He is not the end all be all.

Tim said...

I concur. Radmovich needs to only look at the number of offers he has received to see what his real value is. I would have rather thrown more money at AD and have a bench player that is useful than one that didn't even get to play for his own country based on attitude. Keep him for the year, see where he is mid-season, and use him for trade bait. Maybe we can package him and the Potato for a big body that can rebound. But DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE SIGN HIM FOR $50 MILLION! We could have another Kemp-McIlvaine episode next year when all we can give Rashard is 4-$40.

Carl said...

Oooh....you touch my tra-la-la.

Pete: You are funny!

Carl

Carl said...

And now onto the real subject. Radman...I agree with everything everyone is saying here. But I still say we keep him. We have a three-year window with this team as a semi-contender. The chips fall right and we could concievably win. Who are we going to get that gives us a better shot while Ray's still got gas in the tank? What free-agent better than Vlade is going to pick to play on the Sonics? I don't think I've ever seen a marquee free agent sign with the sonics. I think we have enough leverage to get him to sign a reasonable long-term deal - and we can trade him if someone becomes available who is a better fit. I don't see how we possibly get better without inking the radman.

Carl

Dan said...

While I like him on our squad, I don't 50-million-dollars like him.
Not to switch the subject too far, and I know that we have a glut of centers now (albeit, third string centers), but has there been any more to the rumor that was floating around last month about a Radman for Magloire swap? Seems to me a Ridnour/Allen/Lewis/Evans/Magloire starting lineup with Collison, Fortson, The Omen, Potman and Swift coming off the bench doesn't sound too bad to me.

Carl said...

Also, anyone who hasn't seen the video the "eurotrash" pic was from, is ordered to go to http://www.gunthernet.com/ and watch the "ding dong song" video. Preferably drunk.

Really....now!

Carl

gmo said...

Just got to drop this: Radmonovich has moments when he is sick, straight up strong to the whole, dropping threes like crazy... you've see it. Ray calls him the dude who's gonna determine the trend of the team. Like it or not, Radmonovich is the magic of the team.

(Though I do agree we should have kept AD. Homeboy was the ONLY "other" sonic to be stepping up HUGE against the Spurs).

And while I got ya, time to trade Rashard. Hate to say it but GP didn't miss a goddamn single playoff game. Ever.

b_con said...

One of the questions I have about Radmanovic is whether he can improve his game. He is only 25 or something. Right now though, he isn't worth what he is asking for. Everyone talks about him being such a match up nighmare, but he doesn't come close to utilizing his height well. If he added a post up game to take advantage against smaller players and learned how to shoot off the dribble he could be much better. Honestly, he doesn't do much more than shoot set 3's. He has the potential to be a great defender with that length and quickness, could rebound much better, and could add a lot more to his offensive game. Its a lot of ifs though. I like the idea of letting him sign the one year tender, and then getting some good talent back at the trade deadline if things aren't working out, and Collison looks like he'll be ready to take over the PF.

I would like to see Reggie back also, because we will lose a lot of rebounding and defense if he goes. Don't overpay him either though. I would like to see him and Nick share the time at PF and get about 25 mins a piece. Nick only played like 17 minutes a game, we can't expect him to play twice that much and be as successful.

I think the sonics have done well this off season, and Vlade and Reggie will be coming back with one year deals. We will have too much talent, which isn't a bad problem to have. Flip could even come back to be Allen Insurance again. I like him in that role. Not playing unless Allen gets hurt. Sonics are in good shape to contend for a while.

wayne said...

Unpopular post for the summer:
dump Flip
dump Reggie
trade Lewis
sign Radman

AK1984 said...

Okay, in regards to the Seattle Supersonics, General Manager Rick Sund should renounce the team's rights to both power forward Reggie Evans and shooting guard Ronald Murray.

As it concerns small forward Vladimir Radmanovic, however, Sund ought to sign-&-trade him.

At this point in time, as it is, the club needs a true superstar at small forward; thus, a trade between Seattle and Boston, wherein the Supersonics send Radmanovic (approx. $7,000,000) and small foward Rashard Lewis ($8,571,429) to the Celtics for small forward Paul Pierce ($13,843,157), would be a good move for both franchises.

In any case, though, the abovementioned trade proposal would most likely be refused by the the front office executives (e.g., Ex. Dir. of B-ball Op. Danny Ainge) within the Boston Celtics organization.

Carl said...

I think we really need the post presence Lewis provided last year (finally) and will hopefully continue to showcase. I think an underrated aspect to the sonics performance was Shard finally posting consistently in addition to the other things he provides. I know you have been advocating for a Paul Pierce trade for a while. But if we are talking about the realm of unlikely I'd rather see one of the following. Take a gamble on Eddy Curry and sign him to an offer sheet just a wee bit too rich for the Bulls' blood. Figure out a way to pry Magloire away from NO for Radman. See if the Clips are stupid enough to trade Elton Brand and Cassel for Radman and Collison and go for the gold this year. None of these are really all that likely to get us where we want to go. The only player really slightly available that would make a major difference is Ron Artest. Maybe they would give him up for Shard and Flip. I doubt it.

I say we at least sign Radman and see where we can go with this team with him playing for a contract.

Carl

Sonic EJ said...

I think a Rashard / Vlade for Pierce might work. Boston would jump all over it but I think Sonics management would get could feet and back out. What about trading for Curry? Are the Sonics really going to let Vlade come in for the one year and walk? Same with Curry in CHI. This just seems like two teams that could help each other out.