Thursday, April 14

Mavericks, PG’s, Chicken bones, and Earth Stewards

Dallas 95, Seattle 90

Do my eyes deceive me?

One of the things I try to force myself to do while watching games is to avoid the inevitable visual positive reinforcements I may make in regards to opinions on players. I only caught some of the 1st and 4th quarter of tonight’s game, but one of the sequences I caught was in the 4th. It started with Wilkins playing generally good D on Nowitski (but getting the rookie on established star foul call,) then on the ensuing play being involved in a Dallas turnover, and then in a forthcoming play stealing a pass for a breakaway dunk. I don't intend on getting in my car and heading over to a Sonics team store to purchase Wilkins’ jersey (which I guess isn’t for sale to the public.) based purely upon those few minutes of play. There's just simply not enough data there to prove or disprove my thoughts on a guy, even if it does support my hunch. I’m still sticking to my belief that he’s worthy of some playing time though, even during the playoffs. Cut into the playing times of Luke, Jerome, Flip, and the Potato.

Other notes on a game that I couldn’t get fully involved with:

-Rashard Lewis made his return, scoring 12 pts on 5-13 (1-7 3pt) shooting and looking somewhat tentative especially in the 4th quarter. Hopefully he can regain the swagger that had him declaring “It just feels like no one man can stop me.” The Sonics’ playoff chances rest on it.

-Seattle remained in the game partially by outboarding Dallas 45-30, with 16 of those coming in the offensive end, 8 of those by Mr. Glass. It's gonna be sad seeing the breaking up of the 3 power forwards come the offseason.

-Van Horn and Nowitski on the same team requires a sharper attention to the game than I had. Can someone put a frikkin’ bell on Nowitski or something, so I can immediately differentiate him from the Ute?

-I didn’t catch it, but apparently Bizarro Jerome made an appearance in the 3rd quarter. Well done Jerome, I suppose 1 quarter’s worth of work is worthy of a $55,000 per game paycheck.


Other points of interest:

-While I may chastise Ridnour’s deficiencies an ungodly amount of times, I will concede that he does have some skills and assets, such as his genuine point guard mentality and his nice assists/turnover stat. More importantly, because he's still locked into his rookie salary of 1.5-2.5M per year, he is good value player on the roster. But the fact remains, anything Luke does, I can do better. I’m gonna be beating this dead horse repeatedly: A.D. simply provides a better option at PG for the Supes. Daniels not only shares in Luke’s ability to run the team, find open players, and shoot the ball, but he also plays defense at an above average skill, and provides more offensive ability than Rid. The only skill that Luke marginally excels over A.D. in is 3pt shooting %, and I’ll be damned if that’ll sway my vote enough. If you don’t believe me go ask Mr. Roland, he’ll point you to the truth.

-I don’t intend to fully delve into the Sonic’s upcoming personnel decisions till after the playoffs but I will say this: if Mr. Daniels ends up signing for something around the tune of 3-4 years at 4-5 million per (which is what I expect since that’s what this guy got in a similar deal and situation last year) I’d fully endorse the move. I seriously hope he hasn’t priced himself out of our league.

-I’ve been perusing Seattle newspaper’s online as well as the regular sites in hopes of finding some word on Vlad’s expected return. I finally was able to dig this up at Foxsports today:

Sat Apr 2 2005 - Vladimir Radmanovic had the cast removed from his broken right fibula. The organization won't know until the week of April 18 whether he will be available for the playoffs. His regular season is over, though.

And to reiterate, from Yahoo sports is this:

McMillan said he does not expect reserve forward Vladimir Radmanovic to return before the end of the regular season. Radmanovic was placed on the injured list March 18 with a stress fracture in his lower right leg.

Translation: We’re f***ed. I think reasonable adjusted expectations may be to pass the first round, and maybe steal a game or two from the 2005 NBA champs.


– Finally, during my Radmanovic research, I also caught that Percy Allen of the Seattle Times on Sunday beat me to the punch on the Curse of the Sonics big men that I briefly commented on here. My apologies for failing to mention Haywood and the X-Man in my comment. While we may be onto something, I believe Dan Shaughnessy’s legacy shall remain safe.

A few lines from that article:

The e-mail from Dragon Wolf Medicine Woman was sincere and informative, and so we talked the other day about the possibility that the Sonics are cursed.

The supernatural theory originated a couple of years ago during a conversation with Spencer Haywood while he was lobbying the Sonics to retire his number.
Haywood made mention that he placed a hex on the team and would only lift the spell upon receiving confirmation that his No. 24 jersey would hang in the rafters.

"I'm from a place where we know about voodoo and stuff like that," said Haywood, a native of Silver City, Miss. "I got some chicken bones around here, so I used some old Black Magic like that boy in Boston did to the Red Sox. This stuff is real, man."


My favorite lil’ nugget of the article came here:

"On some level, they are aware of what's going on, perhaps not consciously," said Ms. Medicine Woman, an ordained minister, spiritual healer and Earth steward….

There you go ladies and germs, the decay of American civilization in a nutshell. When any individual that goes by the email moniker of “Dragon Wolf Medicine Woman” can so easily attain the prestigious title not only of ordained minister but Earth Steward as well… well, I think it might be time to consider that move to Canada. My congratulations to Mr. Percy Allen for digging deeper and going that extra mile to find the real stories that need to be told…

Signs of Life

I’m the last guy to be enthusiastic about moral victories, but last night’s game against the Mavs has me a bit more optimistic for the Sonics’ chances in the postseason.

With Radman still hurting, Lewis, Fortson, and AD all came back, and if Lewis had had his legs (1-for-7 from 3), the Sonics probably win the game. The fact that AD came off the bench with 17 points, and the Fort grabbed 7 boards in 16 minutes should be enough for anyone.

In other news, according to the Sun-Times, the Sonics have a verbal agreement to bring Nate back for next year. ... Great quote from Ray-Ray after yesterday’s loss: “The last game I was hurting, and (Tuesday) at practice, I was hurting," he said. "It's not so much as playing the minutes, playing 40 minutes is easy. But it's playing 40 minutes and being involved in the offense on every play." I know this is a cheap shot at Allen, and that his quote was most likely part of a larger context, but, still, wasn’t he complaining 3 weeks ago about not getting the ball enough?

Wednesday, April 13

Pass the Mic

A couple of weeks ago, we invited a fellow blogger to post a story on Supersonicsoul. This week, we recieved this piece from one of our loyal readers, Booth52:

A Sonics Playoff Preview Precursor:

With the Playoffs looming over the horizon I thought I’d take the opportunity to throw in my two pennies on the Sonics and their a) recent struggles and, of more interest to me, b) their chances in the playoffs. I thought I’d drop a post here and should you deem it at all interesting/post-worthy, I’d like to tackle a few other Sonic-subjects in more depth.

Quick side note: I really have no desire to add to the crowded field of Sonics blogs (for which I’m grateful to both sites for) out in this here internet thing. If anything I’d love to enrich the site with my humble opinions on the team, sending in some posts from time to time. My inspiration spawned off of reading an Oakland athletics website you may have heard of (www.athleticsnation.com) and the game threads of red sox games by the diehard redsox fans at sosh. I read a bunch of other nba blogs and they seem to be in their infancy stage when compared to other more established sites with regards to a community vibe. Anyways here’s my first attempt at a post.

Stating The Obvious:
First off, a brief response to the Sonics recent struggles. The team is in the midst of a 4 game losing streak. In reality, they have been playing mediocre to awful basketball for a longer period than that.

Over the past 7 games, the Sonics have compiled a 2-5 record. If we are seriously evaluating the skid, we should count them for at most a 1-6 record since at least one of the two victories vs. Memphis and, Portland, should have really been discounted considering their poor play.

But, for my amusement, let’s go back a bit further say, how about 13 games? Their record since then: a very pedestrian 9-7. Some interesting tidbits:

Sonics pre-3/18:
3P%: 37.5
3PM/G: 8.5
3PA/G: 22.7
PPG: 100.5
PPG All: 99.8

Sonics post-3/18: (13 games total as of April 10)
3P%: 33.3
3PM/G: 5.5
3PA/G: 20.3
PPG: 95.1 (not including 14 points scored in overtime vs. NY, 7 of which came via the charity stripe with the Supes up by 5 with 38 seconds to play)
PPG All: 99.8 (Our recent defensive inadequacies will conservatively and mercifully be ignored for simplicity of comparison)

That PPG differential comes out to 5.4. For those that don’t consider that to be much let’s put that into context for the season: overall the Sonics (50-26) have, up to this point averaged 99.5ppg scored and 96.9ppg allowed. If we were to find a team who gave up a similar amount of points and scored roughly 94.1ppg(99.5-5.4) what would we come up with? How about this team (93.4ppg, 97.4ppga)?

So exactly what separates the previous team, that was (record wise at least) making claims to being one of the top 4 teams in the league, to one now garnering comparisons to the 4th worst team? Simple: Their names are Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic. Since Lewis’ injury the Supes have thrown together that 2-5 record (again, realistically 1-6 or 0-7) and since Vlad was sidelined with a stress fracture on his right leg, the Sonics have made 3 less treys a game and scored on average 5 less points a game. I cannot stress enough the Radman’s importance to the team, particularly by forcing the opponents to extend their defense, having a normally paint roaming potential rebounder, shot blocking/averting 3-4-5 man having to respect Vlad’s 3pt shooting ability. Not to provide some generic tv broadcaster’s response, but he simply makes that offense flow better.

So again you might ask, what the hell’s your point? Simply put, the current state of guarded pessimism taken on by Superfriends everywhere is a bit misdirected at this current time towards the nosedive the team is in. I don’t consider the slide any indication at all of the team’s ability to win (in the playoffs). I don’t care if the team as is loses by 3 or 30 to the Lakers, cause they ain’t gonna do s*** in the playoffs as is. Rashard is expected to return after a few more games, and Vlad’s tour of duty in IR is scheduled to end either today (if you believe the 4 week timeline) or by the start of the playoffs. What is of importance is the team’s ability to re-incorporate two of their most important players back into the fold, and to again develop that chemistry that made the offensive execution a thing of beauty during the first half of the season. If they’re not able to do this, consider the Season record your only present year, cause the Sonics ain’t going nowhere in the playoffs without a little of that magic they conjured up in the beginning of the season.

Overtime:

Some opinions/topics I’d love to drop an analysis on or merely ramble on about Simmons style:

-Damien Wilkins Has played himself into some quality P.T. for the team. He and A.D. are the team’s top perimeter defenders, and he should be used accordingly for certain player matchups. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves: 12-15 minutes max young man, you ain’t your uncle.

-Rashard Lewis on the right side posting up should, in all circumstances, be considered the Sonics offensive option #1. (Just for the record, if you had told me 2 years ago that Lewis would have one of the top 20 most efficient iso-post up games in the league I would have simply laughed at you. If you had told me that six years ago, after the sonics put him out of his draft day misery, I would’ve strongly considered offering to purchase your medication.)

-In particular, the most efficient offensive play the Supes have in their playbook is A.D. and Lew isolated on one side, executing the pick and post to perfection, leaving either Lewis on the block with an undersized guard on him (can I get a “mouse in the house” comment from Calabro? Amen, brotha.), or A.D. wrecking havoc driving into the lane.

-Luke Ridnour is highly overrated, and much of it is due to his skin tone (No, I am not Spike Lee under a pseudonym, defaming yet another white player.) Hearing Ehlo and Kevin drool over the guy eerily reminds me of McCarver and Joe Morgan going gaga over the intangibles of Derek Jeter.

-Ridnour’s deficiencies on the defensive end are most evident against quick, penetrating, offensive minded guards. (Interpretation: get him the hell out of there against the Parker’s, Marbury’s, and Franchises of the League) His inabilities to work the A.D/Lew Pick and finish in the lane are often understated. (Note to Ehlo: driving into the paint, not having the offensive ability to create/score, BUT being able to continue your dribble, is not a basketball talent to be praised.)

-Damien Wilkins Has played himself into some quality P.T. for the team. He and A.D. are the team’s top perimeter defenders, and he should be used accordingly for certain player matchups.

-I am absolutely dumbfounded by Ronald Murray and have no idea if he would be a legitimate star in this league with some decent playing time.

-Jerome James, at best, is an average to slightly above average center. Unfortunately, THAT is the Bizzaro Jerome James, and he only makes an appearance approximately 1 in 10 games. The first few minutes of each game should be spent by Mac-10 determining if the alter ego has shown up and act accordingly, providing Matteen Cleaves a clapping, chest bumping-during timeouts sidekick.

-SuperDanny (He of the 10pts, 8+ rebounds, 3+ offensive rebounds resulting in putback attempts resulting in two free throws and the occasional And-1 situations performances) NEVER appears in the same game that Bizarro James shows up in. Furthermore, +/- Uber-Collison of recent playing time, has miraculously emerged to alleviate the mysterious disappearance of SuperDanny. While John Hollinger of ESPN.com briefly touched on the scary potential of a Reggie-Forston rebound transformer, he’s merely scratched the tip of the iceberg. If someone can debunk my theory that Bizarro Jerome-Uber-Collison-SuperDanny & Reggie all actually share the same brain and merely barter it off at the bench during timeouts, please notify me ASAP. Evidence will be required.

-Signing Ray Allen to a 4 (or worse 5) year contract beyond $75M would be a mistake of McIlvaine-esque proportions. I will not argue about this. Contending for a 8-5 seed in the playoffs over the next 4 years and then moving into a rebuilding mode is not what I consider success. All personnel moves should be made with the sole purpose of leading towards a team capable of contending for a title. A Lewis-Aging Allen combo with intermediate surrounding players taking up the rest of the meager cap space WILL NOT provide for this requirement.

More ramblings to come.

Booth.52

Tuesday, April 12

In Through the Out Door

There is one story we can all expect to hear over the next week – is the Sonics’ playoff fate sealed because of their crappy play at the end of the year?

Well, I’m all about the numbers, so I crunched a few and came up with this conclusion:
YES.

Here’s what I did: I looked at the last four seasons and took the top 4 teams in each conference. Then I added up what they did during the last 10 games of the season and compared it to how they did in the post-season. The relationship of last 10 games to playoff success was shocking. Here's a look at the numbers:



(Editor's Note: Big thanks to Nels of Give Me The Rock fame for help with the chart! -Paul)

Anyway, it’s pretty evident that teams that finish well in the regular season tend to do well in the playoffs. Of course, teams that finish well during the regular season played well all season, so it’s natural that they’d do well in the playoffs. Still, it’s amazing how the numbers drop almost in uniform fashion. (Strange that the only team to run the table over its last 10, San Antonio, flamed out in the 2nd round of the playoffs to the Lakers). Even more amazing, of the 32 teams seeded 1 through 4 in the playoffs in the past 4 seasons, not one team has finished the year with less than 4 wins in their last 10 games. In fact, I had to go back more than 10 years to find a team with as little as 3 wins in its final 10.

It was the spring of 1994. Led by David Robinson, Dale Ellis and Dennis Rodman, the Spurs tore through the league, amassing a 39-14 record by late February before cooling off , finishing in a slump with 7 losses in their final 10 games.

They lost in the first round.

Media Watch: April Edition


Horked from www.sports.IGN.com

The Bad News: So the Supes are limping, figuratively and literally, into the playoffs.
The Good News: They're finally getting some pub. Check the linkage:

>IGN Interview with Nick Collison
He's on the front page of their sports section even. And looky thar: they also chat with our old pal, GP.

>SLAM shows more love for the 206
I love when SLAM loves Seattle. But maybe there is such a thing as too much love. Like, ain't it strange how Ray Allen's hit a mini-slump since his face got plastered on the cover? Not content to put the voodoo on just the Sonics' best player, this month's issue of SLAM might just hex the entire city:
  • Sonics PG duo of Luke "Frodo" Ridnour and Antonio Daniels featured
  • City Game section sizes up Seattle's game through the years and at all levels of comp. There's some nice reminiscing here--Seattle U's Elgin Baylor (not the Clips'), Spencer Haywood, '79 Sonics, Reign Man, the Storm even. Worth the $4.99 cover price alone.
  • Piece on Franklin High alum Jason Terry
  • Open letter to ex-Gonzaga Bulldog, Dan "The Disaster" Dickau, tracing the unspoken "beef" between the mag and he.
Oh, and visit www.slamonline.com and you'll find those same articles, plus the online edition of last month's issue, including the Ray Allen feature.
>Fox Sports.com: Best pro teams to not win a championship
The 95-96 Sonics come in at number 9 in the top 10. Not exactly pub for the current team, and not really a good thing to be recognized for, but it's Sonics pub nonetheless. The 2001 Mariners are No. 3.

Rockets' Glare

All together now: The Sonics have no chance against the Rockets if Rashard Lewis isn't healthy.

Man, how painful was it to see Wilkins, et al trying to guard T-Mac? A nice effort from Collison, and the Potato managed to post double-figures and get in Yao's grill a few times. Still, it was obvious the Sonics need Rashard to be healthy if they're going to compete with the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs (if, of course, they play the Rockets and not Sac. or Denver).

Monday, April 11

Groan

Of all the NBA writers on the web, my favorite has always been Jack McCallum from SI. Maybe it's because I took a journalism school class at Oregon from a former co-worker of his, or maybe it's because he has a better sense of history than most of the guys in his business, I'm not sure.

That said, his recent column about why Steve Nash should be MVP is an absolute joke. McCallum was nice enough to lay out his argument in 5 sections, so I'll destroy them point by point.

1. Nash improved his team more than Shaq improved his. FALSE.
Phoenix averaged 36 wins/season over the past 3 years and Miami averaged 34. Yes, the Heat made it to the semis of the East last year, but does anyone think they'd be this good this year without Shaq? Furthermore, let's look at how the teams both players left did without them. Dallas? 52-30 last year, on pace to win 57 this year. The Lakers? I don't even have to go into that one, do I?

2. Miami can win without Shaq. FALSE.
The Heat are 4-4 without the big man, while the Suns are 2-4 without Nash. Not much of a difference there. Or look at it this way; the Suns' 4 best players other than Nash are Stoudamire, Marion, Joe Johnson, and Quentin Richardson. The Heat's top 4 are Wade, Eddie and Damon Jones, and Udonis Haslem. Let's say you're the GM of the Heat, would you trade your 4 for the Suns' 4? If you said no, please stop reading this blog and go back to reading Bowling Monthly.

3. Nash has changed the game. FALSE.
If this was true, then what about the years he spent in Dallas? Didn't he play the exact same way there? Sorry, but the reason the NBA is scoring more has nothing to do with Steve Nash and everything to do with rule changes and David Stern's grasp of the fact that 82-75 scores do not translate to high ratings.

4. Nash can beat you in numerous ways. TRUE.
Of course, so can Shaq. McCallum lists 5 ways Nash can beat you, 4 of which are actually true (his assertion that Nash gets to the line often is a flat-out mistruth; Nash ranks behind Earl Boykins and ahead of Rafer Alston on the FTA/gm chart for guards). Well, Shaq can rebound, block shots, dunk, and get to the line. Okay, when he gets to the line he misses, but he gets there doesn't he?

5. Nash is fun. HUH?
What does that have to do with anything? Is Nash any more fun than Luke Ridnour? What about Jason Kidd? Geez, Reggie Miller's always been a favorite of mine, let's make him the MVP!

In all seriousness, if someone can give me a logical, thought-out argument for why Nash should be MVP, I'm all ears. But if your argument contains the words "intangibles," "leadership," or any other nonsense like that, I'm turning a deaf ear, because I'll take Shaq's one intangible ability that surpasses any that Nash has: To dunk on any living human being at will.

Warrior

Don't know if anyone else saw this, but Saturday night the Suns and Warriors engaged in a classic, 1980s style shootout in Oakland. You can see the box score here, but the agate doesn't do the game justice. You had Stoudamire playing like a man possessed, the arena was thundering, G.S.W. shooting 70% in the 4th quarter - it was fantastic.

Five things I learned from watching that game:

1. Steve Nash couldn't stay in front of a parade of disabled World War II vets;
2. Mickael Pietrus will never have a game like that again;
3. Zarko Cabarkapa is Vlade Radmanovic at a third the price;
4. Adonal Foyle just could be worth all the coin he's getting;
5. The Golden State Warriors are going to be fierce next year.

I've given Chris Mullin slack for some of his moves this season, but getting Baron Davis was genius. It's a shame the Warriors aren't going to make the playoffs, because they are easily one of the 3 best teams in the West right now.

Friday, April 8

Carnival of the NBA



Matt Bernhardt of the excellent Bulls Blog has started a new feature called "The Carnival of the NBA", which highlights different NBA Blogs from around the world (well, North America, anyway). Since he (and many others) have been kind enough to feature our humble Sonics Blog, I thought it was time to return the favor.

So, without further ado (whatever the hell that means), I present to you this week's CARNIVAL OF THE NBA:

- Over at Bulls Blog, Matt asks for a moment of silence for fallen rookie Luol Deng.

- Jeff from Celtics Blog speculates on Boston's possible playoff opponents.

- Over at Knickerblogger, they're comparing the Knicks recent play to the Flat Earth Society, while my other favorite Knicks blog, Larry Fleisher's "Father Knickerbocker", features a piece on Jason Kidd's recent dissing of the Knicks.

- Keven, from Maverick Blog, cranks out the stats to show who the best defenders in the NBA are.

- Kurt runs down the week in Laker-Land at Forum Blue and Gold.

- GH claims that the T-Wolves aren't dead yet!

- Matthew bemoans the loss of Tim Duncan at the Spurs Blog, while dropping lyrics from my favorite band.

- Scott (creator of the best looking basketball blog in the world, Raptor Blog) talks about Toronto's "matador defense".

- Ron Hitley, from Hornets247, has a brand new feature on his site called "Baselines". So go check it out, already!

- David Eisenberg laments the loss of Big Shaq Diesel Daddy Dude at Crazy from the Heat.

There are probably dozens of other great NBA blogs that I missed, so if I forgot your site, feel free to hit me upside the head.

Game Night: Lake Show

Is tonight the night the Sonics clinch a Northwest Division title? The Magic 8 Ball on my desk says yes, and who am I to argue?

The Sonics haven't swept the Lakers since 00-01, but with AD, Rashard, and Radman out with injuries, even this seemingly easy game looks difficult. Still, the Lakers are 11-26 on the road, Kobe's at less than full strength, Lamar Odom will be watching from the bench, and Los Angeles is obviously playing out the string. I'll take the Sonics and give the 9 1/2 points.

On a more interesting note, this comes from George Karl in Marc Stein's NBA column at espn.com:

"So much of what has happened here reminds me of when I went to Seattle," Karl told us on Tuesday night's NBA Nation, recalling his first playoff series as Sonics coach against another team (Golden State) that had fired him. "There's so much karma between the two situations that I think that's where destiny is pushing it."

Curious George is referring to the possibility of a Sonics-Nuggets first-round matchup. Now, this is going to sound strange, but watching George matched up with Wally Walker gives me mixed emotions. I love the Sonics like a fat man loves donuts, but I can't say I feel the same towards Walker, especially the way he torched a championship team of its 3 main ingredients (Karl, Payton, and Kemp). Anyone else a little conflicted about this possible matchup?

Wednesday, April 6

Reigned Out

Shawn Kemp, a former All-Star for the Seattle Supersonics, is in trouble again.

The increasingly sad and bizarre Shawn Kemp story continues in this column by the P.I.'s Robert L. Jamieson:
The big city sports star was lost in a constellation of booze, clinging to a fraying string of fame.

"Don't you know who I am?" he asked a woman who happened to sit next to him in a Belltown bar a few months ago.

The pretty woman shook her head.

"I'm the Reign Man," the gentleman boomed, a bucket hat slung low over his head like an uneasy crown.

"The weather man?" replied the woman. She thought the guy was a meteorologist or something.

Read the rest here.
I am so depressed. If this keeps up, we're going to be talking about how levelheaded Danny Fortson is!

In related news, it turns out Kemp got busted about a mile away from my house. I can't believe he was in my neighborhood and didn't even stop by - how rude!

Tuesday, April 5

Dare We Ask?

This is going to sound crazy coming from a Sonic blog, but I'm going to say it nonetheless.

I hope the Sonics lose tonight.

I know, it's blasphemy, but of the following three teams, who would you rather play in the 1st round: Houston (Yao! T-Mac!), Denver (17-2 since the break), or Sac.?

That's what I thought. And, with Denver and Houston both within 2 games of the Kings and only a week to go, maybe the Sonics ought to give Sacramento a helping hand toward locking down that #6 slot.

So, if Mac-10 is reading this, don't worry about Rashard missing the game, give Ray some rest, and how 'bout taking a look at that Swift kid?