Tuesday, May 17

3 Is the Magic Number

Ray Allen and the Seattle Supersonics take on the San Antonio Spurs tonight in the second round of the NBA Playoffs.

The more I analyze this series, the more I realize that the Sonics hold their fate in their hands. Conventional wisdom dictates San Antonio is the superior team, and that they lost games 3 and 4 more than the Sonics won them. However, that just isn’t true. For proof, let’s look at some numbers (did you really expect anything else?) from the Spurs-Sonics season series, including the playoffs:

Sonic Wins
FG%: 47
PPG: 102
3PM: 6
3P%: 36

Sonic Losses
FG%: 41
PPG: 83
3PM: 3
3P%: 27

Spurs Wins
FG%: 49
PPG: 101
3PM: 6
3P%: 38

Spurs Losses
FG%: 42
PPG: 93
3PM: 6
3P%: 35

Can you believe the Sonics average 20 points a game more in wins than losses? And that they shoot nearly 10 percentage points higher from beyond the arc in wins? If you throw out the Sonics’ fluky win over SA in game 3, where we can all agree the Spurs threw the game away at the foul line, the differences are even more extreme. In their 3 other wins over the Spurs this year, Seattle shot 43% from 3-point range, a deadly figure by any stretch. Conversely, the Spurs play the same regardless of a win or loss, a testament to their steadiness.

So, you ask, what does this mean? I’ll tell what I think it means. It means the Spurs are at the mercy of the Sonics’ 3-point shooters. If Seattle is on target – by which I mean, if Ray Allen is on target – the Sonics will win. If Allen is off, then the Sonics have little or no chance. That’s great news for Seattle fans if you ask me, as Ray Allen has decided to show the world he’s every bit the money player as any other superstar.

That being said, here’s my fearless pick: Sonics 103 – Spurs 97.

Monday, May 16

Idiotville

On the internet, you're bound to find stupid things. Writers these days are forced to come up with clever angles on boring stories, and we're as guilty as anyone else.

Still, Lang Whitaker's article at si.com today is unbelievably bad. Go, take a read, then come back.

Finished?

Okay, here's some of his logic on why the Spurs will win:

Peace: The Spurs have it, the Sonics don't. Huh? The Sonics had exactly 3 days of conflict in the entire season. Not exactly the '04 Lakers.

Desire: The Spurs have it. Really? Where was it yesterday? Did they leave it in Brent Barry's hotel room?

Understanding: The Spurs edge the Sonics again, since they “know their roles.” Give me a break. If any team in the history of this league understands understanding it’s these Sonics. Has anyone complained about minutes the whole year? Other than Ray Allen a few times, no one has bitched about anything.

Then there’s this classic: “When the Spurs lose, they either lose by a few points right at the end, or they get behind early and just kind of pack it in. They did the former in Game 3 and the latter in Game 4.” So, the Spurs either lose by a couple of points, or they get blown out. Um, Lang, what other way to lose is there?

Finally, gander at this: “All season [Seattle has] been Phoenix-lite, a run-and-gun team with fewer outside threats than the Suns but more interior depth and hustle.” In reality, all season experts have been calling the Sonics a run-and-gun team, but they’re completely wrong. This team doesn’t run and gun. If they get a shot early, they’ll take it, but McMillan has gotten this team to sit on the ball until late in the clock if their shot isn’t there. Take a look at 82games.com, and you’ll see that the Sonics take a higher than average number of shots late in the shot clock.

I have no problem with people saying the Spurs are going to win. Heck, if I was wagering $100 on this series, I’d probably take SA, because they’ve got 1) home court advantage, and 2) Tim Duncan. What I have a problem with is people being lazy and not bothering to research their articles before forming an opinion. Lang, if you want to say the Spurs will win, great. But next time spend more than 10 minutes researching something before you throw it out there.

We can win this.

Seattle SuperSonics forward Antonio Daniels gestures to a referee after a foul call against the SuperSonics in the first quarter against the San Antonio Spurs in Game 4 in the Western Conference semifinals in Seattle, Sunday, May 15, 2005. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Antonio Daniels: "Read my jersey, punk!"

Does anyone doubt the Sonics can win this series now?

The Seattle Supersonics crushed the San Antonio Spurs 101-89 Sunday night to tie their second round playoff series 2-2. Even without their second and third leading scorers (Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic, who were out with injuries), the Sonics scored over a hundred points (including 36 in the third period alone) against the best defense in the league.

Ray Allen had yet another incredible playoff performance, scoring 32 points on a bum ankle. Antonio Daniels (19 pts/7 ast/1 stl) and Luke "Frodo" Ridnour (20 pts/6 ast/3 stl) had their best games of the series.

The Sonics once again got a huge lift off the bench from Damien "The Omen" Wilkins (15pts/6 reb/ 5stl), who is looking more and more like Desmond Mason with a jump shot ever time he plays.

The national media will try to make this into another playoff collapse by San Antonio, but the truth is, the Sonics are the better team. The Sonics can win this series. The Sonics will win this series.

Sunday, May 15

sunday, Sunday, SUNDAY!

Baby, I haven't been this hyped up since the Mariners signed Pete O'Brien as a free agent. Would 4 pm hurry and get here for crying out loud?

Here are the questions upon which I expect tonight's game to turn: (my picks in parenthesis)

Can Ray Allen hit his shots? (Yes)
Will Rashard play more than a token role with his bum toe? (No)
Can TD and the Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight hit more than 60% of their FTs? (Yes)
Will Tony Parker & Manu Divac rediscover the magic from games 1 and 2? (No)
Will JJ continue to throw down monster dunks? (No)
Who will take the offensive slack left from Vlade and Rashard? (AD and Collison)

And, finally, who's going to win? (Sonics, 101-93)

Vegas says Spurs by 6, with a 186 over/under. I'm not embarrassed to say that my pick has absolutely nothing to do with logic, and absolutely everything to do with blind, unabashed love of the green and gold.

Let's go, Sonics!

Kill and Kill Again!

The Seattle Supersonics take on the San Antonio Spurs in game four of the second round of the NBA playoffs tonight.

We're back. And this time, it's personal.

Our Seattle Supersonics once again face another "must-win" game tonight against the San Antonio Spurs, and, once again, we're throwing out sports clichés like old Macarena records.

Let's do this thing.

Friday, May 13

Pro v Con

Hey, we’re living large. The Sonics are back in it, or are they? Here’s 5 reasons for and against continued euphoria:

FOR
1. Ray Allen has to play better than he did in Game 3. He’s a better shooter than what he showed, and that bodes well for the Sonics.
2. Nick Collison’s offensive skills are a more than adequate replacement for Fortson’s. Early this year, the Sonics thrived because of Fortson’s ability to score in the paint. Now, they’re living off the youngster’s abilities.
3. Barry, Horry and Manu are all shooting way above their season averaged from beyond the arc. None of them hit 40+% during the year; through 3 games they all are.
4. The entire Spurs team is shooting over its head. They hit 45% during the season, 44% against the Nuggets, and nearly 50% against the Sonics. The law of averages says this must go down (and that includes you, Manu, unless you think the Argentinian can continue hitting 61% of his shots against the Sonics).
5. The Spurs are going to have to choose between continuing to slack off the big man in the pick and roll – allowing JJ to continue throwing down – or switch off, enabling Ray, Shard, et al to get some open jumpers.

AGAINST
1. Jerome James will not – repeat – will not go 7-for-7 from the field in Game 4.
2. The Spurs, while a bad FT shooting team, are not as bad as they showed in the 2nd half.
3. The Sonics did not score a point in the final 1:50 of Game 3.
4. I love AD, but I can’t imagine he’ll continue averaging 16 ppg for the rest of the series.
5. Rashard Lewis has apparently gone on early vacation.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

SONICS WIN! SONICS WIN!

Seattle SuperSonics forward Reggie Evans (30) gestures after scoring in front of San Antonio Spurs forward Robert Horry, left, in the third quarter, Thursday, May 12, 2005, in Game 3 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs in Seattle.<br />(AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

Who says these guys can't play defense?

The Seattle Supersonics made big stops in the fourth quarter to defeat the San Antonio Spurs Thursday night, 92-91 in the NBA Playoffs. San Antonio wilted under pressure down the stretch, missing clutch free throws and wide-open shots, including a five-footer by Tim Duncan that would have won the game.

Seattle, meanwhile, overcame a bad night from Ray Allen (6-23 from the field/ 0 points in the fourth) and a nightmarish one from Rashard Lewis (3-10/0-3 from 3pt Range) to come away with a much-needed win. The Sonics showed the kind of tough, swarming defense that helped them blow out San Antonio two times during the regular season. They also got clutch performances from Nick Collison, Antonio Daniels, and "Big Game" Jerome James, who was 7-7 from the field.

The most amazing stat from this game? The Sonics were only 2-16 (.125) from three-point range. The Spurs were 8-19 (.421). Yes, the Sonics won the game without relying on threes, and without a star performance by either of the big two. This game was won by sheer force of will.

Let us enjoy this victory, my friends: It's a whole new series.

Thursday, May 12

Game Three: Kill or Be Killed!

The Seattle Supersonics take on the San Antonio Spurs tonight in game three of the Western Conference Semifinals.

This is it. It's now time. The time is now. (Insert sports cliché here)

Everyone knows how much the Sonics need to win this one, so let's just drink up and enjoy the show, shall we?

Too bad the band left members behind


What could have been...

Seattle Supersonics vs. San Antonio Spurs
Game 3:
7:30PM Pac time, Thursday May 12, 2005 @ The Key

The location has changed. The problem remains the same.

I’ve been far too depressed and too busy doing my stupid stand-up routine to properly throw a proper evaluation on the series and its evolution, or more appropriately its deterioration in terms of the Sonics’ hopes.

San Antonio is up 2-0. You could argue that all they’ve done up to this point is hold serve and should we do the same over the next two we’d be right back in this thing. You could. I don’t have the heart to argue you out of that stance. Much like you, I’ve still got my dunce/fan cap on and will be tormented by it till the bitter end. This is gonna be slightly incoherent babble, but here goes…

Dissapointment #1
The single most disappointing aspect of the series so far has been the mysterious disappearing act of Rashard Lewis. 2005 NBA All Star. The other part of the Sonics’ 1-2 punch. The Past, Present AND The Future.

2005 Season stats:
20.5 points, 5.4 boards, 46%FG 40%3PFG
2005 Postseason:
17.6 points, 4.7 boards, 42%FG, 23%3PFG
Round 2: games vs Spurs:
20.5 points, 5.4 boards, 44.5%FG 0-7 3PFG

Not that much there really, but factors aside from post-injury play:
-Sacramento’s game plan was to take Lewis out of the equation with repeated passive to aggressive double teams from a combination of different looks on the double team. Lewis showed a VERY poor ability to recognize the double team and proper decision, be it the outlet pass to the correct open man, or possibly going baseline if given the opportunity from a weak, poorly executed double team.
-It’s not a coincidence that ‘Shard’s 0-7 from the arc against the Spurs. As has been heavily documented they have the best 3 pt defense in the league, by a wide margin, and there has barely been a 3 point shot taken by the Sonics not contested by the opposition.

Here’s the kicker for me in all of this. The Spurs, as anticipated, decided to throw Bowen on Allen and have decided to guard Lewis, on many an occasion 1-on-1, with generous helpings of double teams mixed in. Furthermore, his defender has come from a platoon consisting of the following: 6’-7” Brent Barry (a terrible defender), 6’-6” Manu Ginobili, Robert Horry, and on some occasions Nazr, Bowen, Parker!, & even Udrih! I am dead serious!

Plain and simple, for the Sonics to win Rashard Lewis has to rise up to the fans’ lofty expectations that he is a legitimate player of All Star offensive ability, more than capable of taking advantage of every instance he is given that 1-on-1 mismatch. I noted in my preview of the series that if the Spurs were still using this strategy on Lewis come games 3 or 4 it means 1) Lewis has failed in his responsibility & 2) We’re f**ked. Check. Check.

There is NO excuse for Lewis not demanding the ball as he looks down and sees Barry or Manu on him. Even IF the double team comes and it forces the ball out of his hands, it still, with proper passing/intelligence, leaves the team with an advantage with the Spurs D out of sorts scrambling to reset and putting a man on players/the ball. I’m seriously beside myself watching Lewis shy away from the responsibility/opportunity.

Spurs fan’s are gonna come in here and see a deranged Sonics’ fan with a foolish belief that Lewis has a better game than he really possesses. They may partially be right. Lewis was not wholly consistent through the season in his post up game. Much like the team, he simply didn’t bring it every game and was actually invisible at times. But for those who watched 82 games, they can attest to the fact that Lewis’ play progressed as the season went, that is until his injury and his post-season malaise.

Dissapointment #2
The Sonics played 82 regular season games; 63 were played with Radmanovic & 19 without*.

With Radman:
Points scored- 100.5
Points allowed- 97.1
Point diff- 3.4
3PM- 8.5
3PA- 22.6

Without Radman:
Points scored- 93.9
Points allowed- 95.2
Point diff- (-)1.3
3PM- 6.8
3PA- 20.8

*I actually ran this stuff in a previous post with about 8 or so games left in the season to kind of show Radmanovic’s effect on the team aside from his personal stats: i.e. he spreads the floor, causes defensive problems for opposing teams. Like that last post’s stats, these numbers of course have other mitigating circumstances, noise, as the statheads like to call it. Lewis was out a certain number of games as was Allen. The disappearance of solid play from The Fort. Strength of opponents is not taken into account etc… And again, it’s no shock to anyone who has seriously, or even casually, followed the team: The 1st half Sonics were playing at a superior level to the 2nd half team (in particular the 1st third of the season vs. the last third.) What this stuff does indicate, but not prove, is that Radmanovic has more influence on the Sonics' performance than most people realize, or would care to admit.

Here is my summary of that old post verbatim regarding a particularly tough Sonics' late season losing streak, including grammatical mistakes:

So again you might ask, what the hell’s your point? Simply put, the current state of guarded pessimism taken on by Superfriends everywhere is a bit misdirected at this current time towards the nosedive the team is in. I don’t consider the slide any indication at all of the team’s ability to win (in the playoffs). I don’t care if the team as is loses by 3 or 30 to the Lakers, cause they ain’t gonna do s*** in the playoffs as is. Rashard is expected to return after a few more games, and Vlad’s tour of duty in IR is scheduled to end either today (if you believe the 4 week timeline) or by the start of the playoffs. What is of importance is the team’s ability to re-incorporate two of their most important players back into the fold, and to again develop that chemistry that made the offensive execution a thing of beauty during the first half of the season. If they’re not able to do this, consider the Season record your only present (this) year, cause the Sonics ain’t going nowhere in the playoffs without a little of that magic they conjured up in the beginning of the season.

Now, BEFORE I get the expected crap, I am NOT throwing this out as an excuse for the Sonics poor play or for their 2-0 series deficit to the Spurs. This is NOT an exclamation saying that with Radman we’d be just as good as the Spurs, or you’re so lucky you didn’t catch at full strength type nonsense. I’ve believed and said this at the halfway point of the season, at the end of the season, and at the start of the playoffs: The Spurs are the best team in the NBA. Should they do what they need to do, it should result in a trophy in their hands when all is said and done.

What I am trying to say is simply… this effort we’re seeing is NOT representative of the full capability of the 2004-2005 Sonics. I had wished and hoped that THAT team would have shown up. It would have been fun to watch. Lewis continuing his evolution and making San Antonio pay for the Barry/Manu insult... Ray winning his inferno deathmatch duel with Bruce... Our combo standing toe-to-toe with the mighty Duncan-Manu heavyweight… Radmanovic hitting outlet rainbow threes... Hanging in, hanging in, resilience shining in their eyes... It truly would have been fun. But I guess it just wasn't meant to be.

Wednesday, May 11

Game 2 Recap: We lost

Sorry to the readers there's no full game recap yet. For now, hopefully you can tide yourself over by heading over to nbaspurs.blogspot and read the running thread myself, Matt & Co. did at his site (I was hoping a change in venues would equally shake up the outcome: Negative)

Anyways here it is. I (or another Soul member) will update this stuff later today.

http://www.haloscan.com/comments/sungo/111577381119112726/

Tuesday, May 10

Sonics. Spurs. Do Over.


Alright, Jack... Suit up! The Spurs lead the Sonics 54-42 at the half. Once again, I don't have cable, so I leave it to you, the loyal Supersonicsoul readers, to give us the play-by-play. Start the ranting... NOW!

Pickin' Time

The Spurs are laying anwhere from 9 to 11 for tonight, and while Allen's health is a big question, to me this is a solid bet. Game 2 is always Revenge Night in the playoffs, and if the Sonics of 4 years ago, led by Vin "Is That My Beer?" Baker, can take one in San Antonio, there's no reason this year's edition can't do the same.

So, that said, I'm picking Spurs 102 - Sonics 95. Sonic Nation, what say you?