Drafty

From now until draft day, the only thing worth talking about in Sonicland will be who Seattle will take with the 10th pick - or if they'll trade the pick for something else. With that in mind, I thought it might be helpful to keep track of what the experts think the Sonics will do. Today will be the first edition of What Should the Sonics Do?

si.com - JJ Redick, Duke, SG
espn.com - Marcus Williams, UConn, PG
nbadraft.net - Cedric Simmons, NC State, PF/C
foxsports.com - Shelden Williams, Duke, PF/C
about.com - Shelden Williams
hoopshype.com - Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas, SG
insidehoops.com - Patrick O'Bryant, Bradley, C
msnbc.com - Shelden Williams
collegehoops.net - Marcus Williams
hoopsvibe.com - Ronnie Brewer

Those are just 10 of 14,367 sites compiling mock drafts at this moment. Just imagine if all of the energy spent researching draft choices for the NBA by people who don't even get paid by an NBA team were spent researching, oh, I don't know, cancer? And imagine if 3 losers from Seattle spent as much time working on their careers as much as, oh, I don't know, a blog?

I love this game!

Lottery

Thankfully, not making the playoffs does give teams something to get excited about in the offseason - The Lottery.

It seems as if every day draft prognosticators have different guys wearing Sonic jerseys - assuming Seattle lands the #10 pick as expected. Among the people I've seen attributed to Seattle are Mardy Collins, Ronnie Brewer, and 100 other players.

A couple of tips:

1. Everybody is "long"
2. Everybody has "exceptional quickness"
3. Everybody "needs to work on defensive positioning"
4. Everybody "reminds scouts of (insert player of same race and height here)"

With that in mind, I'm not adverse at all to Seattle dealing the pick + Danny Fortson to pickup something useful: a veteran center, perhaps?

The lottery will be starting at 4:30 pm tonight, West Coast time.

UPDATE: The lottery has ended. Bad News: The Sonics got the 10th pick. Good News: Portland dropped to fourth!

Garbage Time!

A Jerome James highlight reel. Seriously.

(Found on YouTube)

Ehlo: No Longer Mint

Ehlo out, Lenny in. Let the celebration begin.

Fox is expected to replace former Sonic Craig Ehlo as its Sonics color analyst with Hall of Famer Lenny Wilkens, who served as a studio host this past season and will work alongside play-by-play announcer Kevin Calabro for the first time.
- - -
Ehlo’s two-year contract expired and Fox decided not to renew it, instead opening negotiations with Wilkens, who coached Ehlo in Cleveland and Atlanta.

“I have no hard feelings,” Ehlo said from his Spokane home. “I had a great two years. I got to work with Kevin Calabro, who is the best in the business, and every day I learned something from him.”

Fox executives declined to comment. But a source at Fox said the network would like to use Ehlo in another capacity, perhaps announcing college basketball games.

Meanwhile, Wilkens, whose contract negotiations are ongoing, will join a long line of sidekicks to Calabro, who since 1997 has worked with Danny Schayes, Billy McKinney, Rick Carlisle, James Donaldson and Marques Johnson, among others.

from the News Tribune

(Thanks to Ryan for the tip!)

Oh yeah, and here's the official Craig Ehlo highlight reel:

I Miss the Playoffs

Ever have trouble remembering your locker combination after Spring Break? 32-28-13 ... or, wait, was it 28-23-31... or wait, damn, I can’t remember.

That’s sort of how I’m feeling about the Sonics these days. I know there’s a bunch of stuff that will have to be sorted out this summer, not the least of which is where the team will be playing a few years from now, but all those issues are beginning to fade from my short-term memory.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at tonight’s wonderful matchup between the Clippers and Suns. It’s Game 5, baby, and the winner of the series will be in the Final Four (or, as Bill Rancik wisely put it last night on The Apprentice after the fifth-to-last contestant was voted off, “There’s only four left!” Now, that’s the kind of sage mathematical advice we’re looking for!).

The Suns are five point favorites at home, but nobody really knows how this game will turn. The teams have traded wins through four games, each accommodating the other in a very Canadian way. Everybody knows that Game 5s are crucial affairs, though, especially for the team without home-court advantage. Here are a few things you probably didn’t know about this series thus far:

1. Steve Nash is the 4th-leading scorer for the Suns through 4 games.
2. Boris Diaw is averaging more assists per game than anyone on the Clippers.
3. LA is out-rebounding Phoenix by nearly 15 a game.
4. While Raja Bell’s been lights-out from beyond the arc, he’s the only Suns player hitting his 3’s. Marion, Nash, Barbosa, and Thomas are all below 30%.
5. The Suns really only have 6 guys contributing on offense, while the Clippers have 8; this has to become a factor as the series wears on.
6. Does anyone know what Eddie House did to tick off Mike D’Antoni? After being a regular contributor during the season, he’s a ghost in the playoffs – especially against LA.
7. Corey Maggette’s scoring figures through five games: 23, 20, 2, 7, 18. Maybe he’s been hanging around Radman too much.

Add it all up and I’m liking the Clippers tonight – but only if Kaman is ready to go and capable of playing regular minutes. Sooner or later the Suns are going to hit their shots, and at home the emphasis has to be on the former. Still, their lack of depth is alarming, especially when Nash isn’t hitting his shots. The Clippers are doing a wonderful job on defending the 2-time MVP and forcing his teammates to hit jumpers. Rather than doubling on Nash when he drives the paint, they’re staying with their man, preventing Nash from dishing to open teammates. It’s working, and I think it’ll work again tonight.
My prediction: Clippers 102-Suns 95. And, remember, after Game 5, the next game is Game 6!

Self-Promotion Dept. (Vol 1)

In the non-NBA department, some of you may be wondering why I haven't been posting much. Well, after a three-year hiatus, I've returned to the sordid world of stand-up comedy. I had a little warm-up at Comedy Underground's open mic on Sunday, and starting tonight I'll be appearing every Wednesday night as part of Seattle's hottest new comedy show, Comedy Night at the Mirabeau Room on Queen Ann.

I'll probably won't be on stage that much tonight, but the line-up includes some of the Seattle's top young comics, so it's worth checking out. Did I mention Digital Underground's Humpty Hump was in last week's show? Who knows who will show up this week? Maybe Alton Lister!

(For more info go to myspace.com/paulmerrill.)

Dynamite

Five things gleaned from watching two fun games last night (Heat-Bulls, Lakers-Suns):

1. Steve Kerr (on TNT) mentioned during the 4th quarter of the Heat-Bulls game that this has been the most competitive first round he can remember. No arguments here.

2. GP got the majority of the minutes in the 4th quarter last night - even though I saw Hinrich burn him at least twice, badly. Still, it's nice to see Gary running the point for a team that's winning in the playoffs.

3. You know how when you play a pickup game and a guy launches an obviously bad shot the entire gym echoes with "Off!"? I'm convinced that when Shawn Marion was a kid, every time he shot people said the same thing. Do his jumpers ever look like they're going down?

4. Raja Bell = Bruce Bowen = Bill Laimbeer = Danny Ainge = Players only fans of that team can root for. That's got to be one of the ugliest plays in awhile, especially when you see the look on Bell's face as Kobe was going by him. Bell looked like he was eagerly anticipating choking him. He has to be suspended, in my opinion, for at least a game.

5. I don't think I've ever looked forward to non-Sonic Game 6 as much as I'm looking forward to Suns-Lakers on Thursday. In fact, I hope the NBA doesn't suspend Bell, just so the Suns can't trot out any more excuses why they didn't win and we can see both of these teams at more or less even strength. If this was series was a pot of water, it was already bubbling before Bell clotheslined Kobe; now, the steam is filling the kitchen.

Playoff Report

Vladi looks for a rebound, while Reggie looks for some nuts to grab.

Maybe I'm the only one who cares about this sort of thing, but I was curious to see how the players Seattle traded during the season are doing in the playoffs. Here's a quick look:

1. Vladimir Radmanovic - 8.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 7-15 from 3-point range
Radman hasn't had a breakout series, only going for double figures once, and that was in the weekend's blowout win over the Nuggets. He's averaging 20 minutes a night, which is a respectable number, but I'm sure he'd love to be playing more.

2. Reggie Evans - 4.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg
Evans hasn't seen many minutes, either, even with Kenyon Martin on the DNP list. As the backup PF, Evans' rebounds have gone from 16 in the first two games to 6 in the last two.

3. Flip Murray - 8.3 ppg
Flip continues to struggle from long range (2 of 10), but his 19 points Sunday against the Wizards was the best game of any of the former Sonics. Flip's minutes have been strange, 30+ twice and fewer than 15 twice.

(Editor's note: It looks like Reggie is getting very busy in the playoffs! - Paul)

Nash

Well, it appears Steve Nash has worked his Canadian magic on the voters once again. Reports are circulating that Nash has won the MVP for the second consecutive season, boosting hopes for runty white guards all across North America.

I thought it might be interesting to compare Nash with LeBron James, who I consider to be the league's true MVP (with Kobe and Billups right behind). Specifically, let's look at that mystery called "most valuable." Every story you read in the next few weeks will center on how Nash boosted a team without Amare to a strong record, almost as if his surrounding cast was a bunch of stiffs straight out of the NBDL. But what if LBJ's teammates are worse; doesn't he deserve some credit as well? Here's a quick look at the two rosters:

2nd-best player:
Cleveland: Ilgauskas (15.6, 7.6 reb)
Phoenix: Marion (21.8, 11.8 reb)
Clearly, Marion is the better player, as he averages nearly as many blocks as the taller Ilgauskas, while grabbing an extra 1.5 steals, fewer TOs, and more points per shot.

3rd-best player:
Cleveland: Hughes (15.5, 4.5 reb)
Phoenix: Diaw (13.3, 6.9 reb)
A tougher call here. Diaw has never played this well in his career, so Nash has to get some credit for that. But the question is: Who’s a better player? Hughes.

4th-best player:
Cleveland: Gooden (10.7, 8.4 reb)
Phoenix: Bell (14.7, 2.5 3’s per game)
Again, a tough call. Bell’s Roland Rating is +.1, Gooden’s is -.4, which is essentially a toss-up. Interestingly, Bell’s stats are virtually identical to his previous campaigns, with the exception of him chucking up way more 3’s than ever before. I’ll call this one even.

5th-best player:
Cleveland: Snow (4.8, 4.2 assists)
Phoenix: Leandro Barbosa (9.3, 3.4 reb)
I had to mix this up a bit, as Barbosa isn’t really the 5th-best player, but it would be silly to match up Snow with Tim Thomas. Still, he is statistically superior to Snow.

6th-best player:
Cleveland: Flip Murray (13.5, 2.8 assists)
Phoneix: Kurt Thomas (8.6, 7.8 reb)
Again, no way you’d ever deal Murray for Thomas, unless Murray’s nickname reminds you of Flip Wilson and you’re looking for that whole nostalgia thing.

7th-best player:
Cleveland: Donyell Marshall (9.3, 6.1 reb)
Phoenix: Tim Thomas (11, 4.9 reb)
An interesting comparison. Both were top 10 picks, both have been considered something of a disappointment in their careers, although Marshall has been a consistent contributor throughout his tenure, while Thomas has been a salary cap menace to many teams. I think the majority of NBA GMs, in a world where the cap did not exist, would take Thomas.

That’s enough of the comparisons, as no one cares whether I think Anderson Varejao is better than Eddie House. The important point is that in four of the six comparisons, the Suns’ player was better, and in only one match-up was the Cavs’ player definitely superior (Hughes).

So, the result is that LBJ’s cast is easily worse than Nash’s, Amare or no Amare. And yet, James, who led his team to 50 wins is somehow less valuable than Nash, who led his team to 54? James, who scored 1,000 more points than Nash is less valuable? James, who averaged more steals and fewer turnovers than the “ultimate point guard” is less valuable? I don’t buy it.

I’m convinced that 20 or 30 years from now, basketball geeks will look back at these two trophies, look at Nash’s stats, and utter a collective, “Huh?”

Expectations

Quite a bit has been made of the Sonics’ 14-11 finish to the season. Adding Chris Wilcox and Earl Watson seemed to spark Seattle down the stretch, causing no end to the speculation that it means next year will be a return Sonic playoff basketball.

But does it really mean anything? Does playing .500+ basketball in garbage time add up to anything substantial? Are there any examples of teams that played poorly one season, then rebounded the next to great heights? And how did they fare in the final 2 months of the season?

Well, let’s take a look at some recent teams that jumped from mediocrity to playoff standards in one season, the mitigating factors, and how they played down the stretch of the previous season (I limited it to the past two seasons because of laziness).

First, some parameters. We’re looking at teams that went from outside the playoff picture to inside, but weren’t propelled by the acquisition of a single player (e.g., LeBron, Shaq, Steve Nash,etc.) or injury (e.g., David Robinson), since the Sonics aren’t likely to add someone of that stature and they’re not looking at bringing back anyone from the injury list (with the exception of Shawn Kemp. Ahem.).

On to the teams:

2004-05 Chicago Bulls
Improvement: 24 wins
Factors: Added Ben Gordon
Final 25 games, previous year: 7-18
A fair comparison to the Sonics, in that they hired Scott Skiles the year before their improvement, who brought a new attitude to a team which was headed nowhere (a la the Sonics and Bob Hill/Bob Weiss).

2004-05 Washington Wizards
Improvement: 20 wins
Factors: Added Antawn Jamison
Final 25: 7-18
The Wizards were led by an improving Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes, and the addition of Jamison helped offset the loss of an injured Jerry Stackhouse from the previous year.

2004-05 Seattle Sonics
Improvement: 15 wins
Factors: Kismet and Danny Fortson
Final 25: 11-14
Perhaps you’ve heard of these guys. Having Ray Allen for a full season helped, but last year was a case where everything just sort of fell into place for the Sonics.

2003-04 Memphis Grizzlies
Improvement: 22 wins
Factors: Added Bonzi Wells and James Posey (!), Hubie Brown
Final 25: 10-15
The Grizzlies bought into Hubie’s brand of bench basketball, as a number of guys contributed to the team’s improvement, including a maturing Pau Gasol and one Earl Watson.

That’s obviously too small of a sample size to make any worthwhile deductions, but it does illustrate that finishing poorly does not GUARANTEE a poor finish the next season. One surface note from looking at those examples is three of the teams improved in no small part because of maturing young players.

How about the rest of the league, though? Were there any teams that played well down the stretch last year and finished out of the playoffs? How did they do this season?

Here are some answers. I looked at all teams’ records last year in the final 25 games, then compared it to this season (I left out such teams as San Antonio, Dallas, Miami, and Detroit because their performance is almost set in stone, and they may have been “coasting” into the playoffs).

What I found is that, in a nutshell, a team’s “Stretch Drive” (SD) performance had very little, if any, relevance to its performance during this season. For example, two teams with the better SD records (Houston and Golden St.) both finished out of the playoff picture, despite going a combined 39-11 in their final 25 games. Conversely, the Lakers and Milwaukee finished last season on a woeful 11-39 note, then rebounded to each make the playoffs.

Obviously, this scenario is fraught with complications. Injuries, trades, and other roster and coaching changes muddle the picture. Nonetheless, I think the implication that the Sonics’ stellar performance down the stretch indicates sunnier days ahead for Seattle is sorely misguided. IF Chris Wilcox is re-signed and matches his offensive performance, IF Ray Allen maintains his output despite advancing age, IF Bob Hill doesn’t begin to wear on the players, IF the Ridnour/Watson combination doesn’t become combustible because of the dangerous liquid known as playing time, and – most important – IF Swift/Petro continue to develop then YES, the Sonics can play well next year.

That’s a lot of ifs, though, and I would hazard a guess that with that in mind the Las Vegas oddsmakers won’t put the Sonic ’05-’06 win total too far north of 45 games. Neither would I.

A Ray of Hope

The season's over, but Ray once again made this team worth watching:

SEATTLE (AP) -- Ray Allen broke the NBA record for 3-pointers in a season, finishing with 269, and the Seattle SuperSonics wrapped up their disappointing season with a 109-98 victory over the playoff-bound Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night.

Read the rest here.

Other great Ray moments from an otherwise forgettable season? How about his 42 points and game-winning shot in that insane double-overtime game against the Suns? Or what about his fight against the insane Keyon Dooling? Ah, such sweet memories.

So, what are your favorite moments of this terrible, terrible season? Danny Fortson fouling himself out so he could get back on the exercise bike? Bob Weiss' disappearing act? Let's hear it!

On the Side

The Sonics are due to play the final game of the season tonight against the Nuggets. After 81 games of band-aid-pulling pain, we fans will finally be rid of the horror that was the 2005-06 come about 10 pm tonight. Was it a good year? No. Were there memories to be had? Yes, but be sure to tune in next week for our full recap in the Sonic Yearbook.

But to more pressing matters: Jermaine O'Neal. According to Marc "I'm Not Making This Up!" Stein, O'Neal is rumored to be headed for Golden State. As a Sonic fan, let me say one thing: Rick Sund, pick up the phone!

Now, I don't know if Indiana is really interested in dealing the best young center in the NBA (I'm looking at you, Yao), but if they are the Sonics would be foolish not to take interest. Let's see, he blocks shots, scores down low, grabs rebounds, and plays hard. Um, can I have a second helping of that, please?

To make it work, the Sonics will need to throw a lot of salary back at Indiana, and that means either Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis. The key would be the Pacers' intentions with Peja Stojakovic. If Peja and the Pacers consummate their brief fling with a long-term deal, then there's no room in Indiana's inn for Lewis, and I can't see them wanting Allen, either. If, however, Peja winds up in Chicago as has been rumored, the Pacers wouldn't mind having Lewis to fill his spot. So, how about Lewis, Fortson, and either Petro or the #1 pick for O'Neal? It works economically and helps both teams.

Don't you love not being in the playoffs?