Turkey Day Numbers

Given the state of affairs in NBA attendance this year, I thought we should take a quick look at how the league fared over the course of the four-day holiday weekend.

Thanksgiving means turkey, mashed potatoes, and basketball – at least to NBA fans, anyways. While it could be argued that Christmas Day is the start of the NBA season, the NFL is winding down, you get a couple of marquee games to watch, Thanksgiving is also a good time to gauge the temperature of the league.

So, how did the NBA do this past weekend? First, the raw numbers.

Thanksgiving 2008 – 17,687 avg., 91% capacity
Thanksgiving 2007 – 17184 avg., 89% capacity

That’s a fair improvement, especially when you look at how the overall numbers have gone this season. However, it could be argued that the Seattle/Oklahoma City returns might skew the numbers unfairly, so here’s how it would look if Sonic-Thunder were removed from the equation (and, yes, I agree, Sonic-Thunder sounds like a nifty 1987 band; can we get Sammy Hagar to sing lead?):

sans Sonic-Thunder
Thanksgiving 2008 – 17667 avg., 90% capacity
Thanksgiving 2007 – 17486 avg., 90% capacity

That narrows the gap a bit, but even a crusty old grump such as myself would have to admit that the league is at least doing as well this year as last.

Another way to view the numbers is to have a breakdown of % capacities:

90%+: 17 (2007), 21 (2008)
80-90%: 4 (2007), 3 (2008)
70-80%: 5 (2007), 2 (2008)
60-70%: 3 (2007), 3 (2008)

see chart below for complete breakdowns

Again, the nod goes to this year. This is an admittedly small sample size (29 games in total), and doesn’t take into account who was playing, weather, etc.

But, for a quick sampling of tastes from last year to this year, it gives us some insight anyways. For once, let me say, a pat on the back to the league for keeping its head above-water in difficult times.

Happy Thanksgiving

From your friends at Supersonicsoul.

Tuned In, Or Not?

One of the commenters to our story about the NHL vs NBA attendance debate brought up a point in regard to television ratings - namely, that NBA ratings are increasing over last season.

Seemingly, this is a fly in the ointment for the argument that the NBA is struggling right now. Or is it?

As evidence, the commenter pointed to this article from Nielsen. On the surface, it seems to indicate some rosy figures for the league. To wit:

2008-09 Season vs. 2007-08 Season Ratings, % Change
New Orleans, 163%
Cleveland, 109%
Atlanta, 97%
Portland, 44%
Orlando, 26%
New York, 17%
L.A. Lakers, 14%
Washington, 12%
Philadelphia, 10%
Memphis, 10%

Anyone else notice something missing from that picture? That is to say, what about the other 23 teams? If the top 10 on your list includes Memphis and Philadelphia, and their improvement is just a marginal one, what about the bottom ten? How have their ratings gone this year?

I'm not saying those other 23 teams are worse, and I'm not saying they're necessarily better, I'm just saying, well, I'm saying I have no idea, and neither does anyone else without access to the information.

Pointing to that website and saying, "See, I told you the league is prosperous!" is somewhat like pointing to a list of the top teams with the 10 best won-loss records in the league and saying, "See, I told you all the teams are winning this year!"

We only know 1/3 of the story. I can't imagine I'm the only one out there curious to see the rest of the story. Any ad-men out there with access to that sort of info, feel free to educate us.

Da Fort

Couple of brief updates on our man Danny Fortson.

The first is a fantasy piece that puts a smile on your face for combining "Danny Fortson" and "blueberry pie" in the same sentence.

The second, though, I can only hope is made-up, because it's just too disturbing otherwise.

Note to Self: Add More Pics of Cheerleaders

Looking at basketball blogs, through the viewfinder of genderanalyzer.com. Per the site’s own description: [GenderAnalyzes] uses Artificial Intelligence to determine if a homepage is written by a man or woman. Behind the scene, a text classifier hosted over at uClassify.com has been trained on blogs written by men and women.”

Site: Likelihood the site is written by a man
HardwoodParoxysm: 100%
Playboy: 99%
SonicsCentral:, 92%
Need4Sheed: 90%
Detroit Bad Boys: 86%
Sactown Royalty: 84%
Basketbawful: 82%
Ball Don’t Lie: 80%
CelticsBlog: 79%
3 Shades of Blue: 79%
BlogMaverick: 79%
TrueHoop: 77%
Empty the Bench: 76%
BlazersEdge: 76%
Oprah.com: 75%
Blog a Bull: 73%
Deadspin: 70%
Wizznutzz: 67%
SuperSonicSoul: 59%
Golden State of Mind: 45%

SuperSonicsoul: Still more manly than those man-loving hippy freaks in San Francisco, not quite as manly as those man-loving narcissists at Deadspin.

Beating a Dead Horse

Continuing my diatribe from last week, let’s look at another way to view attendance figures: Percent of capacity.

(As always, figures come from espn.com. Glad we cleared that up.)

Last season, out of 30 NBA teams, the percent of capacity scale broke down as follows:
90-100%: 17 teams
80-90%: 6
70-80%: 5
60-70%: 2

And this season?
90-100%: 17
80-90%: 5
70-80%: 4
60-70%: 4

That’s a pretty even distribution looking at it quickly, but if you delve deeper into the figures, the picture becomes bleaker.

Teams at 99%+ capacity
2008: 10
2009: 5

Also, as pointed out at Wages of Wins last year in a fine article about the NBA’s apparent popularity issues, the NBA has traded a city with poor attendance marks (Seattle) for one with strong attendance marks (Oklahoma City). However, despite WoW’s argument that Oklahoma City was 50% of the problem in last year’s attendance figures (i.e., the trade of OKC for N.O. and the lackluster figures in Seattle), the move of the Sonics to OKC has not alleviated the league’s problems at the gate. In fact, the numbers this year are even worse than last year.

But back to the main point of this story – the capacity scenario. Another way to look at the numbers is to compare each team to its’ figures from last year.

2008 vs 2009
Improved: 8 teams
Declined: 19
No change: 3

In other words, more than twice as many teams are facing declining numbers when viewed as a percentage of capacity this season, a staggering figure. Four of those teams are seeing their attendance drop by more than 10 points from last year’s totals, Philadelphia (from 73 to 62), Sacramento (from 82 to 70), the Clippers (from 86 to 72), and the Heat (from 99 to 81).

How many teams have improved by more than 10 points over last season? Just one, Oklahoma City. (Although, to be fair, the Hornets are on the precipice, at +9.2 from last year).

In other words, the only NBA franchise to see a substantial improvement from last season was the franchise the league decimated in its previous locale. Not exactly a stirring endorsement of the league’s fortunes.

Adieu, PJ

I'm guessing that when Clay Bennett drew up the outline for how things would go in his triumphant return to Oklahoma City this season, it was quite dissimilar to the way the actual story has gone.

Following a Friday night loss to the Hornets which put the Thunder's record at 1-12, wundersenior PJ Carlesimo was sent packing in what was surely his final opportunity at coaching an NBA team.

If you doubt me, and think that Carlesimo will be the Stan Albeck of his generation - a perennial retread coach who always manages to find a way - take a look at these numbers:

19-63
21-29
6-21
20-62
1-12

That adds up to 67-187, and marks PJ's cumulative record in his final five seasons as an NBA coach. It is a remarkably inept performance, matched only by the buffoonery of the people who hired him in the first place.

The Great Wall of Payton?

Details are sketchy, but rumors are beginning to surface about Gary Payton making a return to professional basketball, but this time on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, at least as reported by solobasket.com.

I'm not sure what was more surprising in reading that article, that Payton would like to subject himself to playing overseas, or that Bob Weiss is a head coach in China. I wonder if Bob Hill is planning to snake Weiss' job over there as well?

In other news, Steve Scheffler has expressed interest in returning to professional basketball in the Turkmenistan professional league.

That interest, unfortunately, has not been reciprocated.

A Word, If You Will

Indulge your narrator, please, as he attempts to explain why he has spent the past three days putting up negative information about the NBA, and allow me to correct some misunderstandings.

#1
I am not a hockey fan, despite the fact that I am an American living in Canada. In fact, were you to tell some of my friends up here that people now believe me to be an NHL fan, they would spit out their Tim Horton Timbits quicker than Ben Johnson at Seoul. I hate the NHL, I hate hockey, I hate people who say that hockey players are the greatest athletes alive, and I hate it when sportswriters couch their racism inside melodious descriptions of “gritty” and “tough” hockey players.

#2
The attendance information I presented is factual, not something I made up on my mom’s computer (actually, my mom doesn’t own a computer, or a basement, but thanks for asking). If you don’t believe me, go to espn.com and do the research yourself.

#3
I get it. The NBA is more popular than the NHL. I’m not an idiot, and any league which broadcasts it games on something called Versus is not even in the same ballpark. I never said that the NBA was in danger of being surpassed by the NHL in terms of American popularity – only a fool would say that.

#4 – and most importantly
Why? Why bother bringing all of this up? Sorry to disappoint you, but it’s not sour grapes. Well, it’s partially sour grapes, although I ask you: How do you expect me to feel about a commissioner who felt his loyalty to Clay Bennett superseded the loyalty Seattle fans had shown the NBA for 40 years?

No, the true reason I brought this up goes back to what I wrote more than a year ago – that the NBA needs cities more than cities need the NBA. There’s been an emperor’s new clothes mentality for the past two decades about stadium building, and the continual escalation of arena modifications across North America resembles nothing so much to me as the Cold War.

Arenas are not refurbished because city’s need them to be, they’re rebuilt because franchises need improvements to better compete with the other teams who just had their arenas rebuilt.

It is my belief that the NBA – and perhaps sports in general – have reached a day of reckoning in this neverending one-upmanship. It is my belief that Seattle will enter into negotiations with the NBA with a completely different tact than in previous times, and that it – and other cities - will no longer have to be beggars for the NBA’s scraps.

And, finally, consider this: Do you know anyone who plays hockey? Did your high school have a hockey team? Do you and your friends get together for pick-up hockey on Saturdays?

I’m guessing the answer to those questions is no all around. And yet, despite basketball’s inherent advantages over hockey in terms of popularity in the U.S., here we stand, with hockey drawing more people this year. How is this possible?

Rather than castigate me for presenting facts, how about a frank discussion about the troubles the NBA is facing, and what can be done to fix it? Would that not be more productive than insults?

Nobody likes the guy who brings the bad news, but that doesn’t mean you should ignore what he has to say, either.

Pretty Graphic

For further illustration of the NBA's situation, take a look at the chart below, showing the per-game attendance of the Philadelphia Flyers (pink) and 76ers (blue).

The Flyers started off the season with six consecutive losses. That's right SIX.

The Sixers picked up one of the top prizes of the off-season (Elton Brand), and were expected to be a contender in the Eastern Conference.

The Flyers have drawn more than 18,000 in all eight of their games this season.

The Sixers have yet to crack 16,000.

Can someone explain that to me? Is it just ticket prices? Is it something more?

Candid Camera

No matter what you think about the state of the NBA these days, you have to agree that the attendance numbers are, at the very least, slightly troubling.

With that in mind, it begs the question: Just how bad is attendance these day? If you go by reported statistical figures, it seems to be off by 5 to 10%, perhaps more, but just how accurate are those numbers?

I ask because I was a witness to the final days of the Vancouver Grizzlies. For three years, I "covered" the team for a small local paper, meaning I was courtside at nearly every game. With the woeful product before us less than enthralling, I usually spent as much time looking at the crowd as I did at the court.

After Michael Heisley bought the team it became obvious that something drastic had happened. Attendance in the arena dropped precipitously, and rumors began spreading that the previous ownership group had been giving away hundreds of tickets to boost attendance, and that they were inflating that artificially boosted attendance to boot.

I bring this up because the easiest way to determine if an NBA team is struggling is to look at the upper rafters. If there are massive sections of empty seats, well, things aren't going so well in that town.

And that, dear readers, is where bloggers come in. To many, the one asset bloggers lack is access. But that's only true if you look at it from the perspective of a traditional media member, who can speak with the coach, GM, players, trainers, and anyone else he/she desires.

Bloggers, however, do have a type of access the local media does not - freedom. Because we're not obligated to report on anything in particular, we can look at bigger pictures. And no picture right now is more important than the one taking place at arenas across the country.

What I'd like to have happen is to see bloggers - and their readers - start taking pictures of the stands during games. With the proclivity of camera phones these days, everyone is a walking photographer, so there's no excuse for us not to start documenting what's happening.

If you're in Philly, take a photo of the empty seats. If you're in Memphis, start snapping shots of empty seats. If you're able to get something good, email it to me at supersonicsoul AT hotmail.com, and I'll start posting them on our website.

Ideally, we could create a flickr-type presentation, but I'll let those more savvy than me get into that sort of thing.

For the time being, though, I'll try to post the best of shot of the day on our website every day, with the corresponding "attendance" figures for that game given to us by the NBA.

If nothing else, it beats me writing yet another story about Aubrey McClendon.

NBA and NHL

There are a hundred ways to talk about NBA attendance, a hundred ways to distort the truth, a hundred ways to rationalize, pervert, and obfuscate the facts.

In the weeks and months to come, the NBA will attempt to use all of those methods. They will load us down with facts and figures that explain how wonderful the league is, how healthy its balance sheets are, and how strong its ratings are.

Just remember, when you hear those words, what the chart below is showing you:

That, my friends, is the cold, hard hand of reality smacking David Stern in the face. In the past six years, his league has gone from dominator to also-ran.

Nice work, fellas.

[NOTE: To accommodate the NHL's work stoppage which eliminated an entire season, I shifted the NHL numbers from the previous season up into the empty gap.

NOTE2: Graph has been updated.]