Wednesday, December 19

Graphically Speaking

For today's class, we're going to do a little comparison of Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony. To aid in the discussion, here are 4 graphs comparing the start of each player's career. The blue line is for Durant, the pink for Anthony.

1. Points

2. Minutes
3. Rebounds
4. Field Goal Attempts

So, what can we learn from these examples. Here are a few points I gleaned from looking at the data:
1. I had thought the Sonics were playing Durant too much and he was getting far too many shot attempts. In fact, numerous media members concurred, at least in regard to the shots, saying that it was causing a bit of a problem on the roster (the whole young fella getting too much too soon thing, you know). But when you compare KD to Melo, you can plainly see that Durant's numbers are almost interchangable with Anthony's.
2. On the negative side, while Anthony's point totals increased as the season progressed, Durant's have not. However, they are both small sample sizes, too small to draw significant conclusions.
And that's about it. Most importantly, I think it's clear that Durant has been Melo's equal thus far in his career, which bodes well for the future. Well, except for rebounding. And hair. Anthony's all over him in that.

6 comments:

RJ said...

Interesting to see.

Would be also worth knowing the game to game variances.

Another point of comparison could be team +/- on/off rookie season. Anthony's full season was -1. Durant at -11 so far. Different teams and this is raw +/- so use with lots of caution but this is a big difference. Anthony's on/off defense impact was only about half as bad as Durant's and he had a +5 impact on offense while Durant so far has had virtually none.

RJ said...

Nuggets increased wins by 26 in first year with Anthony but he deserves only 1/3rd the credit at most as Camby got healthy and A Miller was acquired.

Loss of Allen & Lewis make it hard to judge Durant's impact alone though winshares maybe suggest rough estimate later.

Sonics 2-10 when Durant doesnt score 20. 5-8 when he does is better but will have to check back after more games. If he gets team to .500 when he is "on" that still leaves the other half of the time he is not on and they lose heavily. He will have to reduce the amount of times he is not "on" significantly and / or team will have to find other ways to win those games (including perhaps Durant taking less shots when is he is not on, especially when someone is on.)

Paul Merrill said...

Great work, Nuss!

One thing to consider that isn't in the stats is the help they get from their teammates. I think the fact that Mello has Camby and K-Mart next to him on the floor certainly boosts his defense stats (compared to Durant, who is surrounded by Matadors).

RJ said...

Anthony's PER, shooting and rebounding all down so far this season compared to last 2. Just a slump or a worrisome sign for a 23 year old to show slippage? Time will tell. Maybe presence of Iverson is better for team than for Anthony himself. Shouldnt take NBA 3 ptrs as his % has been terrible for years. Durant has to start hitting 3 ptrs better n future too if he is going to take many of them. Right now th epoints off this 3 pt attempts are well above what an average shot should yield to be called a good shot to take.

RJ said...

make that...

the pts off his 3ptrs are well "below" what it should yield to be called a good shot

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