Waivers Bring Roster to 15

The Sonics announced Thursday that Denham Brown (picked in the 2nd round this year) and Milt Palacio have both been placed on waivers, putting Seattle's roster at 15.

With Swift likely to head for the DL, that leaves Farmer, Rush, and Wilks competing for 1 or 2 spots.

In other news, Rick Brunson - the former Sonic who got practically no time last year in Seattle - got canned by the Sixers. I'm sad to see it happen in one sense, because Brunson was a Temple grad and a seemingly good guy (gotta love the A-10). On the other hand, maybe this puts him closer to being a head coach, if not at Temple, then perhaps as an assistant.

Thus endeth your waiver update.

One To Go

The exhibition season is finally ending, with tonight's game in Spokane against the Warriors the final test. As you've heard by now, Robert Swift is out with a (possible) sprained knee - or worse, meaning that the center by committee situation just got even more messy.

It's likely Johan Petro will start, with Fortson, Collison, Sene, etc. filling in as well. I suppose we could get all depressed about this, but, seriously, Robert Swift wasn't going to be the reason the Sonics made it back to the playoffs this year, and his injury is not going to be the reason why they don't. At this point in time, the Sonics' best lineup doesn't include Swift, Petro or Sene at center - it's with the undersized Collison. If Swift's injury means more minutes for Collison, well, that's not exactly a tragedy, now is it?

Tonight's game should be an interesting one, in that the Warriors are expected to contend for a playoff spot. Plus, there's the opportunity to watch basketball in the hotbed of hoops - Spokane!

Our New Dads

I would write some witty banter here about this ridiculous photo from yesterday's press conference, but those bastards at YAY SPORTS! already did. (Thanks to Matt Bailey for the tip!)

Predict-o-Meter:Chris Wilcox

Perhaps no player is tied more closely to the fortunes of the Sonics this season than Chris Wilcox. He is the barometer (or, as Kramer would say, “thermometer”) of this team. Ray Allen will get 24 points, Rashard Lewis will get 20, Ridnour/Watson will combine for 12 points and 10 assists, and the youngsters will give absolutely nothing, so it remains for the Sonics to 1) incorporate Wilcox into their offense and 2) for Wilcox to demonstrate an ability to be a consistent producer – a mighty task indeed.

Let’s take a gander, then, at what we can expect out of Chris Wilcox this season, beginning with how he played for Seattle in the spring this year, the greatest contract drive since Calvin Booth’s 2000-01 playoff performance (wince).

After scoring in double-figures five times in the first four months of the season, Wilcox scored 10+ 20 times in the final 2 ¼ months – a prodigious rate for a previously frustrating player. What, beyond the simple reason of more minutes, caused this to happen? In what other areas was Wilcox above-career? (For explanations of some of the more obscure stats, look here.)

FG%
Career: 52 Sonics: 59 Pre-Season (PS): 50

FT%
Career: 68 Sonics: 79 PS: 61

True Shooting %
Career: 56 Sonics: 63 PS: 55

Turnovers per 40
Career: 3 Sonics: 1.8 PS: 2.9

Points per 40
Career: 16.3 Sonics: 18.7 PS: 10.1

FTA per 40
Career: 4.9 Sonics: 4.3 PS: 5.2

Turnover Ratio
Career: 13.7 Sonics: 10.1 PS: 22.7 (!)

Rebound Rate
Career: 13.55 (estimate) Sonics: 16.4 PS: 19.9

Phew. That’s alot of numbers to crunch in one sitting, I know, but I think it illustrates pretty well that Wilcox’ success was not solely attributable to increased minutes – it was more like (Increased Minutes + Improved Play) * What the Hell Happened to This Guy in Seattle? Oh, and that he’s stunk the joint up in the pre-season, causing Rick Sund to switch to a higher-potency brand of sleeping pills.

Let’s be realistic and assume Wilcox drops to somewhere above his Clippers’ numbers, below his springtime Sonics’ numbers, and better than his pre-season pre-season numbers (got all that?). What kind of player will we get this season?

Start with how many minutes he’ll play. There are 96 minutes for the PF and C. Say Swifty gets 20, Petro 15, Sene 3, Collison 20, and Fortson (!) 5, adding up to 63; leaving 33 for Wilcox, which I think is what the Sonics would expect from him, given the amount of money they’re paying him.

At 33 minutes, I expect Wilcox to get 10 shots and 5 FTs. At his career averages, he would make 5.5 shots and hit 3.5 FTs, give or take, for about 14 points a game. His rebounding numbers were actually improved in LA before the trade, so it’s reasonable to think he’ll maintain that production, putting him at about 8 boards a game.

Now, on the surface those numbers are good, not great, but good. I think most of us would take a 14/8 from the 4 any night of the week, especially when you add in a couple of monster dunks for good measure. Of course, we shouldn’t neglect the likely 2.5 turnovers per game Wilcox will commit, a whole extra TO per contest more than last season. Or the fact that he averaged 5 fouls per 40 minutes in 3 ½ years in LA before posting 3.8 per 40 in Seattle (backed up by his 4.9 fouls/40 in the pre-season).

On the whole, Wilcox should be a plus for the Sonics this season. I expect him to commit too many fouls, enabling Collison to get more PT (fine with me), to be occasionally frustrated with his role in the offense, to put up as many 25/15s as he does 8/6s, and to be generally acceptable as the team’s starting power forward.

Is he worth $28 million over 3 season in today’s NBA? If you held a gun to my head, I’d say no, but he’s not a colossal free agent money pit along the lines of Jerome James or Nene, either. At least not yet.

SuperSonicSoul gets SLAMMED!

A week after being mentioned in Dime, Supersonicsoul gets some love from SLAM Online. The great BasketBlogger Marcel Mutoni interviews Paul Merrill (hey, that's me!) for their Sonics Preview.

Of course, if you prefer to read a "reality-based" season preview (unlike mine), I suggest Mr. Nussbaum's fine write-up (part one and part two).



Speaking of The Nuss, it sounds like someone has PLAYOFF FEVER!

Sonics Win! Print Playoff Tickets!

The Sonics finally got off the schneid with a 108-102 win over the Suns in Phoenix Monday night. Led by Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis (again), Seattle outscored Phoenix 58-43 in the second half. Ridnour had an especially nice game, with 11 points, 8 boards, and 6 assists.

Chris Wilcox had a decent outing, although one would hope he would eventually score in double-figures at some point this pre-season (also,that 3-for-6 mark at the foul line ain't making anyone happy).

Robert Swift continues to cement himself as the starting center, posting 6 points in 15 minutes while Johan Petro struggled, committing 3 fouls to go with 0 points and 1 rebound. Ouch.

Seattle's interior defense must have been awful, though, as Thomas, Stoudamire, and Marion combined for 50 points and 24 boards in 71 minutes - telling numbers indeed. Bob Hill can talk all he wants about how he wants to give the youngsters a chance to prove their worth, but deep down he has to sense the danger in not having a veteran post player to defend.

More Predict-O-Meter

The second in an ongoing series of Sonic Predictions:

BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Denver implodes as George Karl finally wears out his welcome (shocking!), Minnesota continues to struggle to build a team around KG post-Sprewell and –Cassell, Kirilenko gets hurt ... again, the Blazers fully commit to the Greg Oden Sweepstakes, and the Sonics muddle through to 47 wins and the NW Division Crown (which ranks somewhere between Best Foreign Language Screenplay in a Short Film and a kick in the groin as far as career accomplishments go). They lose in the first round to just about whomever they play.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO: The Sonics make it through November and December in decent shape, pulling into 2007 a hair below .500. In January the wheels come off, the Sonics stagger into the All-Star Break mired in an eight-game losing skid, after a dispute over injury status/playing time/foul prone-ness (take your pick) Danny Fortson gets into a fight with Bob Hill in the locker room, and, finally, the new owners point to the sagging attendance figures and call a press conference.

BEST REASON TO BE EXCITED ABOUT THE SEASON: Mouhamed Saer Sene, aka the Senegalese Assassin. Sene will get bluffed into jumping early more frequently than you’d care to see, but his fantastic leaping skills and highlight-reel abilities will provide a few opportunities for Sonic fans to go nuts this year.

BEST ROAD TRIP: Let’s pray the Sonics are still in the hunt come early March when they travel to play – in succession – the Knicks, Sixers, Boston, and Toronto. That’s about as easy as it gets for an East Coast swing.

BREAKOUT NW DIVISION STAR: Carmelo Anthony should get the nod here, but he’s already so well known he doesn’t really fit (that said, I wouldn’t pass on Melo if I was picking a fantasy team). No, the real breakout guy should be Deron Williams of the Jazz, who’s already putting up solid numbers in the pre-season. If AK-47 is healthy, and Jerry Sloan doesn’t kill someone on the sidelines, the Jazz could be pretty tough this year.

WHY CHRIS WILCOX IS WORTH THE MONEY: Power Forwards who can run and hit baseline Js do not grow on trees, and Wilcox has value in the NBA as a big man who can score and rebound, albeit inconsistently. Of note, Wilcox scored 20+ on six occasions for the Sonics after the trade with the Clippers. The Sonics went 5-1 in those six games, with the only loss coming against Orlando when half the team had the flu/food poisoning.

WHY CHRIS WILCOX IS NOT WORTH THE MONEY: If you read the above paragraph, you know the Sonics went 5-1 when Wilcox went for 20 points. Read between the lines, though, and you’ll notice that Wilcox played 29 games for the Sonics, which leaves 23 other games when he didn’t score 20. Did I mention he scored in single digits nine times, or half again as many times as he scored 20? Or that he finished the year by scoring 8, 7, 9, 6, and 10 points? It’s all well and good that Wilcox is capable of averaging a double-double, but, as the man says, you can hope in one hand and crap in the other – guess which one will fill up first.

BIGGEST MISCONCEPTION ABOUT THE SONICS: That going 14-12 to end the season means anything. After studying dozens of teams in similar situations to the Sonics in the last couple of years, it became obvious that a team’s record in the final two months of a mean-nothing season has about as much relevance to their performance the following season as the weather on Opening Night. It’s fine and dandy that the Sonics played decent ball the last spring, but it doesn’t mean jack this fall. If you don’t believe me, try this on for size: The Rockets and Warriors finished the ’04-’05 season with a combined 39-11 record. Last year? Both were home for the playoffs.

Sonics Fall to Blazers, Fans Jump in Sound

It's just the pre-season, right?

Right?

The fact the Sonics dropped a dud to the lowly Blazers last night - the team, along with Charlotte, most likely to get the #1 pick this coming June - at home, doesn't mean we're facing another season of ineptitude, right?

Well, let me throw some numbers at you. In statistical circles, one term you'll hear often is "outlier." An outlier is any value in a set of values that is markedly smaller or larger than other values. See if you can spot the outlier in the following set of values:

40, 37, 52, 35

If you haven't guessed that 52 is the outlier, well, head back to math class. If you haven't guessed that 52 is the number of wins the Sonics posted 2 years ago, then you're not much of a fan. And if you haven't gathered that it's more likely the Sonics will post 37 wins than 52, well, you're naively optimistic about this team's chances.

Read the gory details here about last night's loss.

Predict-O-Meter

As the regular season draws closer and closer, it’s inevitable that we’d come out with our predictions for the season. Upcoming articles will detail the season more, but here are some quick glimpses at what I expect to see this year, the 40th in Sonic History.

BEST FRENCH-SPEAKING PLAYER: You’d expect a 2nd-year guy to win this, but I’m going with the rookie, Mickael Gelabale. Petro still seems so raw that I don’t expect him to get more than 10-15 minutes a night, while Gelabale could wind up supplanting Damien Wilkins in the rotation and becoming the regular backup to Ray Allen.

WORST STRETCH OF THE YEAR: Mid-December. The Sonics play consecutive road games against Milwaukee, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, and Memphis, before returning home to face Dallas. The Sonics would never have faced such a horrific Hannukah schedule if a Jewish guy owned the team ...

STEP FORWARD: I’d love to say Robert Swift, but I still think he’s too young to really make the leap this year. I’d also love to say Chris Wilcox, and I suppose going from a string of DNPs in L.A. to averaging 8 points and 8 boards would be an improvement. I still don’t buy into Wilcox being an above-average PF in this league, but just the simple fact he’s going to get minutes this year means his numbers will improve, at least relative to the rest of his career.

STEP BACKWARDS: I hate to say it, but Ray Allen is due for a come-down from his 25 ppg last season. His age (31) merits fewer minutes than the 39 he averaged last year, and shooting guards always begin a decline phase of their careers at around the 30-32 year mark. Allen is a remarkably-conditioned man, so perhaps he can forestall Father Time, but I’m not betting on it.

FIRST PLAYER TRADED: The smart money is on Danny Fortson to be traded at some point this year – but will he be the first to go? Wilkins’ relatively inexpensive contract makes him palatable to other clubs, but Fortson’s presence on a team with a surplus of big men has him the most likely to go first.

RECORD AT THE END OF NOVEMBER: 8-8.

RECORD AT THE END OF DECEMBER: 14-18.

TOTAL WINS: 37. Think I’m being pessimistic? Check the Vegas lines, folks. There are 3 teams with longer odds to win the title than Seattle (currently at 115/1): Portland, Charlotte, and Atlanta. People, when you’re in the same sentence with those clubs, you are in a world of trouble. Right now, the Sonics are sitting at 35 ½ on total wins this year in the sports books – personally, I think that’s overly negative, and I’d expect the Sonics to do better than that, but not a whole lot better.

Da Fort is Back!

Danny Fortson's knee might still be gimpy, but it sounds like his elbows are in mid-season form:

For the first time in training camp, Danny Fortson participated in a scrimmage, which was open to the media. He fared well until getting frustrated and flooring rookie free agent Kenny Adeleke with an elbow.

Fortson, who has not played in a game since Jan. 23, then left the scrimmage, iced both knees and went into treatment. It looks more and more as if he will open the season on the roster and could receive playing time if his gimpy left knee holds up.

Read the rest in today's Seattle P.I.

And, in case you missed it the first time around, here's our Dannny Fortson comic book in all its glory:

Front Cover
Part One
Part Two

Sam's The Man

Thanks in no small part to the efforts of voters from supersonicsoul, Sam Perkins earned a spot on the Sonics' 40th Anniversary Team, joining Slick Watts as the 2 Wild Card entrants. Somewhere in Utah, Tom Chambers is cursing us all.

Dag! We're in Dime!

SELF-PROMOTION ALERT! Check out the latest issue of DIME for a brief (and I mean brief) Sonics season preview by yours truly. The guys at DIME are very cool, so please go buy several copies. Or just send them bags of money. Either way is good.