Young Blood

As it stands today, the Sonics have 14 players on their roster. Just to make all you 30-something guys out there feel even older, ponder this for a moment:

Out of those 14, guess how many were born before 1980?

Give up?

3.

That's right, 11 of the 14 players on the Seattle SuperSonics were born post-Jimmy Carter. Wally Szczerbiak (1977), Kurt Thomas (1972), and Earl Watson (1979) are the only holdovers from the Donna Summer Decade.

Where have you gone, Clemon Johnson? A Sonic Nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Predicting Kevin Durant

With the pre-season still far off in the future, and with not much else on the go, I thought I’d start taking a look at what we can expect from the Sonics this year. Naturally, the first guy on the docket is Kevin Durant. Heck, who else did you expect me to write about, Zabian Dowdell? (Okay, I admit it, I considered Little Z first, but that would have been going too far).

Durant is a tough guy to predict – he’s as tall as most power forwards, but he’s got the ability to play shooting guard. He can dunk, shoot 3’s, rebound (allegedly), and run the break with equal aplomb. He’s also 19 and as is so thin he looks like he could squeeze through the bars of a jail cell without too much difficulty. Can he withstand the banging and pounding that is (less so now, but still) so commonplace in the NBA?

The other problem with predicting Durant is that he has no obvious comparisons. Carmelo Anthony is similar, but not really. Dirk Nowitzki is one possibility, but Dirk was a European who no experience in North America his rookie season, and a teenager to boot. LeBron is another option, but he spent no time in college, and their bodies are completely different.

With that in mind, here are the 3 most-recent superstars to emerge from the draft, and how they did their rookie seasons as compared to their freshman years in college (with the obvious exception of LBJ:

Carmelo Anthony:
Freshman Year: 45%, 33%, 22 ppg, 10 rpg, 36 mpg
Rookie Year: 43%, 32%, 21 ppg, 6 rpg, 36 mpg

Dwyane Wade:
Freshman Year: 49%, 35%, 17.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 32 mpg
Rookie Year: 47%, 30%, 16.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 35 mpg

LeBron James:
Rookie Year: 42%, 29%, 21 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 40 mpg

Kevin Durant:
Freshman Year: 47%, 40%, 26 ppg, 11 rpg, 36 mpg

(The percentages are FG and 3FG, respectively)

Once again, Durant defies comparison. His numbers are better across the board compared to those guys. You might be surprised – as I was – to see how similar Wade and Anthony were in their rookie years to their freshman seasons. Naturally, I don’t expect Durant to put up a 26-11 this season (especially since he won’t have a 20’ 3-pointer as an option this year), but considering that both Wade and Anthony played at about 90% of their levels their rookie seasons, is it that unreasonable to expect Durant to put up about 22-7 this year? I don’t think so.

Plus, if Durant stays at the 2-guard this year, as many expect, he’s going to come close to matching his block totals from Texas (2 per game) just from the simple reason of guarding much smaller players.

I think it’s safe to say that the Sonics will be looking not only at someone who will be the odds-on favorite to be Rookie of the Year, but someone who could very well contend for a spot on the All-Star Team this year. That last claim might be overly optimistic, but I’d certainly say there’s a 50% chance he does it. First, he has no competition on his team when it comes to shot attempts, and, second, his college numbers were so good you have to expect him to register something pretty impressive this year.

Now, about that 185-pound bench press ...

Save our Sonics Press Conference Today

Our pals at Save Our Sonics are holding a big press conference at Mainstage Comedy Club (a great joint right across from Key Arena) to talk about their new "A Deal is a Deal" initiative. From the press release:

On June 27, 2007 Steven Pyeatt and Brian Robinson, founding members of Save Our Sonics and Storm, formally registered A Deal is a Deal Committee (DIAD) with the State of Washington with the intention of filing a citywide initiative relating to the lease status of the Seattle SuperSonics and Storm.

“A Deal is a Deal” will mandate that the city not be a partner to any agreement in which a professional sports team relocates prior to the expiration of their existing lease, effectively making binding the pre-existing Sonics lease through the 2009-2010 season.

Initial support for this action has been extremely broad-based. The initiative has been reviewed and endorsed by anti-arena activist Chris Van Dyk, co-chair of Citizens for More Important Things. Van Dyk, along with members of the Queen Anne Business Community, will join DIAD, PAC members to announce the formal submittal of the initiative later this week. At that time the text of the initiative, as well as volunteer and contributor information will be released. Media members will be given a statement regarding this action, as well as engage in question and answer sessions with legal council, supporters, and affected Seattle Area business owners.

That's right--Chris "I hate sports" Van Dyk is on board! What is this topsy-turvy world coming to?

Here are all the details:

Press Conference: Thursday, July 26, 2007, 3:00 pm

The Mainstage Comedy Club

315 First Avenue, Seattle

Contact: Brian Robinson, Director

Phone: 206.349.6447

E-mail: brian@adealisadeal.org

Odds and Ends

Before last season, I wrote that I expected the Sonics to do better than the odds-makers predicted. I felt that Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis would be enough to propel the Sonics to a high 30s mark (Hey, at least I wasn't as optimistic as some guys at sonicscentral.com I'm not going to name names, but I seem to recall someone saying the Sonics had the capability of winning 45-50 games).

Well, I can't brag too much, because the Vegas folks were pretty close to the final result. Most books had the Sonics at about 32 wins, and they finished with 31. Injuries, chemistry, whatever ... the Sonics pulled in right on target, and none of us were too thrilled by that.

What about this year, though? The roster is revamped, the coaching staff is gone, and the front office is re-made in the "Seattle Spurs" model so coveted by our beloved owner. How will that play out?

I haven't found any specific numbers yet, but one book apparently thinks the Sonics have improved. At +6000, the Sonics pull in ahead of the bottom-dwellers, the +10000 club that includes Memphis, Boston, Atlanta, etc. This one feels about the same. Vegas Insider.com is less optimistic, putting the Sonics ahead of only Philly and the Grizzlies in the entire league. Of course, that was before the Sonics acquired Kurt Thomas, and he's worth a couple dozens wins by himself, right? Um, yeah, nevermind.

Vegasinsider.com aside, most of the other betting sites peg the Sonics as what you could deduce as a 35-40 win team. Not the dreck of the league, but not a playoff team, either. Kind of like the Mariners would be if JJ Putz wasn't doing his best Goose Gossage impersonation this season.

Personally, I'm a little less optimistic. I reserve the right to amend my prediction as the summer progresses, but I'm puttting the Sonics' total wins at 34. Two things could sway that, though:

1. If Sam Presti makes some more moves and adds pieces that will help the team this year
2. If Minnesota trades Kevin Garnett. The Wolves will be pretty bad, regardless, but trading Garnett makes them a 15-20 win team, which means 2-4 extra wins for the Sonics.

So, I've put my big mouth out there. How about the rest of you? Does 34 sound about right, or are you all aboard the Good Ship Durant, ready to set sail for the Land of Playoffs and 45 wins?

Dave Ross to talk about new Sonics Initiative

I just found out that Dave Ross is going to be talking about the new Sonics initiative being put together by our pals at SaveOurSonics on his show this morning on 710 KIRO.

I love Dave Ross, but he's been dead set against doing anything to help the Sonics. If you disagree, call in to the show or e-mail your comments.

Minutes

Acquiring Kurt Thomas put another shovel of cement into the foundation for next season’s Sonic roster. It’s been a tough summer in trying to figure out possible roster configuration and moves, simply because so much of the roster is or has been in flux.

So many questions: Is Luke Ridnour on the block? Will either Damien Wilkins or Mickael Gelabale be forced into reduced minutes, or traded? How does Chris Wilcox fit into the new, defense-oriented mindset, and how many minutes does he get now that Kevin Durant and Jeff Green are in Sonic jerseys?

If you look at the roster as it stands today, this is what you get:

Swift, Thomas, Petro, Sene, Wilcox, Collison, Durant, Green, Wilkins, Gelabale, Szczerbiak, West, Watson, Ridnour

That’s 14 people, not including Brandon Heath, Will Blalock, Quinton Hosley, Zabian Dowdell, Kenny Adeleke, or any of the other people currently on the Sonics’ summer league roster. It also doesn’t include a 3rd-string point guard, although West could fit that duty.

It seems rather plain then that more moves are coming. Here are some that I would expect:

1. Mo Sene is headed for the NBDL. This seems obvious to me. He’s taking up a roster spot on a team that needs them, and he plays a position that is already well stocked. Plus, he needs the playing time.

2. Either Watson or Ridnour will be traded this summer. This also seems obvious. Going beyond the painful chemistry between the two, it’s a simple minute-distribution situation. There are only 240 minutes to distribute to 13 or 14 players, and neither of those two guys will be happy playing 10-15 minutes. I’m leaning towards Frodo being dealt.

3. Wilkins or Gelabale will be traded this summer. Again, there just aren’t enough minutes for these guys. Damien averaged 25 minutes a game last season and Gelly averaged close to 18. That can’t happen on this team because the math just doesn’t work. Look at it from this perspective, bearing in mind that player minute averages don’t truly indicate the minutes used in a game, because of injuries:

Allen(40)+Lewis(39)+Gelly(17)+Wilkins(25)=121 minutes
Durant(30)+Green(30)+West(30)+Szczerbiak(20)=110 minutes

That leaves 10 minutes for Damien and Gelly. As they say in Texas, that dog won’t hunt. Obviously, Wally could wind up at 10-15 minutes a night, and you figure he’s going to miss at least 25-30 games due to muscle pulls, ankle sprains, hair gel emergencies, etc., so there’s room for Damien or Gelly, but not both. Their only chance for reprieve would be, as Brian pointed out at SonicsCentral, if Szczerbiak gets traded in August, which is possible.

4. Johan Petro will be dealt this summer. This is the most likely of the possibilities, simply because I’m sick of watching the guy. C’mon Sam, you’ve done everything else right this summer, can’t you swing a deal for a late first-round, early second-round pick for the Frenchman?

5. Chris Wilcox might be traded this summer. This is the least likely, but still possible. Wilcox doesn’t play much D, takes minutes away from Collison and/or Green at PF, and he has value. In the light of the Thomas acquisition, The Seattle Times ran the possibility of Collison being traded up the flagpole, but I don’t think it will happen, simply because Collison fits so nicely into Sam Presti’s type of player, while Wilcox does not. Plus, Wilcox will be a valuable piece of trade material next summer, as his contract expires the following summer.

It’s a complicated situation, but when you attempt a wholesale slash and burn of a roster, as the Sonics have this summer, it’s inevitable that the pieces don’t fit back together easily. Somewhere along the way, Presti will have to find a 3-for-1 deal out there, even if it means adding a veteran he’d rather not have, or else the chemistry problems the Sonics endured last season will look like child’s play.

Team USA: Durant Better Than Advertised

I can't believe I missed this:

LAS VEGAS, July 22, 2007 -- His name already belongs in the same conversation as LeBron James, Frank Robinson and Wayne Gretzky as being considered one of the most dominant teenage athletes of all time, but when it's all said in done, we might be mentioning Kevin Durant with the likes of Bobby Fischer, Mozart, Will Hunting and Doogie Howser as perhaps one of greatest prodigies to ever live.

Through the first two days of Team USA's mini-camp, Durant has without a doubt been one of the top six or seven performers despite being just 18-years old and playing with 16 other guys who all have been through multiple NBA seasons.

- - - -

Not surprisingly then, on Friday it was Durant's offense that got everybody's attention as "KD," as he's called by the team, stroked shot after shot during the intrasquad scrimmages, hitting somewhere in the neighborhood of eight of his 10 shot attempts by this writer's memory.

"He’s just shooting the [expletive] out of the ball,” Team USA tri-captain Carmelo Anthony said about his fellow Baltimore-area native and Oak Hill Academy product, Durant.

- - - -

On Saturday, Durant showed his all-around game, quickly picking up the zone defense that assistant coach Jim Boeheim implemented and making several plays on defense. Those included closing out from the baseline to the wing in a nano-second to swat a LeBron James pull-up jumper on one possession, and rotating into the lane to dig out a steal from the hands of Dwight Howard on another.

Read the rest at NBA.com

See video of Durant and Team USA here.

And they call me a fanboy!

Poor Phoenix

Just in case any Phoenix Suns fans have come here looking for commiseration because a corrupt referee prevented them from possibly winning an NBA title that they may have deserved, let me say this:

Stuff it.

Summer Leagues Finis

Well, the summer leagues are over for another year, and all we have to look forward to is training camp, which is a month or so in the future. Fortunately, the Sonics managed to right their winless ways towards the end of the Rocky Mountain Revue, posting a 2-1 record overall after finishing 0-for-Vegas.

Shockingly, Johan Petro was great on offense throughout the Utah series, scoring 20, 7, and 12 points in the three games, this after a horrific group of games in Las Vegas. The young Frenchman added 25 boards to go with the scoring, putting him at the top echelon of rebounders in the Revue. Mo Sene had one stellar outing, and two not-so-stellar ones. To be fair, I’m only going by boxscores, since the games haven’t been put up on the internet yet, but that’s coming soon.

Quinton Hosley, who we profiled a week ago, had a great outing against the Bulls, but was limited to 6 minutes in the final game with the Mavericks, scoring a remarkable 9 points in that limited time span. Can’t tell you why Q only got that much run. (Got to love when a guy gets 6 FTA in 6 minutes; that's 48 FTA in a full game, for those that are mathematically inclined; for those that are not, that’s one big boatload of FTA).

But you’re wondering, what about Zabian Dowdell? Well, our erstwhile young point guard found himself trapped on the bench for the first two games, before scrambling to the floor in a 9-point, 1-assist effort as the Sonics emptied the bench in the final game.

Dowdell was stuck behind Will Blalock, the former Husky who managed to steer the Sonics in a much more efficient manner than the point guards who preceded him in Vegas. Blalock finished with 16 assists in three games.

In other Sonic news, Andre Brown has signed with the Grizzlies, the Kings are looking at Mike Wilks, Kevin Durant scored 22 points in an intrasquad game of Olympians (which, combined with his efforts during practice, caused Dave McMenamin to label him one of the six or seven best players there), David Locke examines the Kurt Thomas trade, and Nick Collison will be invited to the Olympic mini-camp in August, in Jerry Colangelo’s continuing efforts to find at least one decent white guy to play on the Olympic team.

Sonics Coming to Vancouver?

Here’s another blogger’s reaction to the Thomas trade:

I'm going to try not to get too infuriated by this until we know whether or not there's more to it. Who knows, maybe we're going to get another announcement that they found another (maybe even upgraded) big man to replace KT, and then I'd feel silly for posting a tirade. So for now, I'm going to take a wait and see approach. But if this is all there is to it, I have to say I'm not a happy fan right now.
Bright Side of the Sun

And the complete AP story on the deal (the writer termed Presti’s wheeling and dealing with Rashard Lewis and the subsequent return as “an unexpected windfall.” I think it’s safe to say that’s the nicest thing written about a Sonic GM since Zollie Volchok dealt for Gus Williams and Howard Cosell called it "a humdinger of a deal.").

And, now the meat of this post. The Sonics’ pre-season schedule is out ... and the Sonics are going to play the Suns in Vancouver, BC! Woot!

For a Sonic fan in absentia, this is manna from heaven. I get to watch the Sonics without driving for 2 ½ hours. Bonus Woot! I get to heckle Steve Nash and get dirty looks from Canadians who are constitutionally forbidden from actually accosting anyone! It just doesn’t get any better than that.

Here’s the complete schedule. Any and all are cordially invited to my place on October 26 for the game. Are you 19, a Sonic fan, and desperate for legal alcohol? Come to Vancouver! Do you fancy marijuana cafes and heroin addicts? Come to Vancouver! Ever wonder why Canadians are so obsessed with naming their first-born sons Gord? So am I!

Win, Trade, Petition

New Sonic Kurt Thomas looks to show Collison and crew the ropes.

For a summer following a 31-win season, it’s been pretty active in Sonicland.

As Paul mentioned earlier, Johan Petro and Mo Sene decided to put in their annual “Tempt Us With Your Potential” display yesterday in SLC.

But that effort takes a backseat to two important bits of news.

1. The Sonics have apparently traded their trade exception from the Rashard Lewis deal and a second round pick to Phoenix for Kurt Thomas and two future first-rounders (and, no, neither is the Atlanta pick; you’re not that lucky, Sonic fans).

2. Brian Robinson at sonicscentral has launched a PAC called “A Deal is a Deal” which will begin the process to launch a petition calling for the city of Seattle to hold Clay Bennett and his dust bowl friends to the lease they became a party to when they bought the team.

Phew. That’s a lot to digest. First, the Thomas trade is manna from heaven. The burly center is in the last year of a contract that will pay him $8 million this season, which means the Sonics aren’t on the hook for some Calvin Booth-esque deal. He immediately alleviates the pressure on Robert Swift, helps the team’s interior defense, and makes Petro that much more expendable. Plus, Seattle picks up two future late first-round picks, which they can leverage for something, or hang onto to solidify depth. Beautiful all around for Sam Presti and the team. Kudos to the front office.

As for Brian’s initiative – if you’re a Sonic fan, I don’t see how you don’t get on board with this. The most important paragraph in his story is this:

“If we can recieve [sic] sufficient financial contributions we believe that we can have the required signatures in as little as 3-4 weeks. Checks can be made out to “A Deal is A Deal, PAC” and mailed to 2622 NW Market St., Suite A, Seattle WA 98107”

Honestly, if you’ve ever spent a dime on the Sonics, if you want to see this team stick around for your kids, if you just want to just stick it to Clay Bennett, whatever the case may be, I suggest you drop a check in the mail. This is a huge, David vs Goliath effort and Brian and the Save Our Sonics group can use all the help they can get. Get on board.

Sonics Win! Petro scores 20! Pigs fly!

Has the world gone cuckoo? First, we hear that Clay Bennett is meeting with Mayor Nickels about returning to the Key, and now this:

Centers Johan Petro and Mouhamed Sene, first-round selections by the Sonics in 2005 and 2006, respectively, started together and had their best games of the summer to lead the Sonics to victory. The combination, which played 57 minutes together all of 2006-07, totaled 35 points, 20 rebounds and five blocks. The Sonics also got 22 points apiece from No. 5 overall pick Jeff Green and rookie free agent Quinton Hosley in their best offensive effort of the summer.

It was Hosley, undrafted out of Fresno State before joining the Sonics for the Revue, who got the team off to a fast start. He scored 14 points in the first quarter as the Sonics built an early nine-point lead and took a four-point advantage after one quarter. They never trailed, but the Bulls rallied to make things interesting before the Sonics made the key plays down the stretch to earn the victory.

Read the rest at Supersonics.com

Petro and Sene lead the team to victory? It's almost enough to make a Sonics fan take a step back from the ledge!

And in case you were wondering, Count Durantula missed the game tonight because he practicing with Team USA in Vegas.