Tough Start

Spent a little time looking at the new schedule more closely, and I'm getting a rather uneasy feeling in my stomach when I think about how the Sonics start the season.

Now, it may come to pass that the decision regarding the future of this franchise gets settled far in advance of the October 31 deadline Clay Bennett has imposed. But it may not. Bennett's deadline has no legal backing, and is solely a motivation tool for the city/personal goal for him. And if it does not get settled - and it wouldn't be the first time an owner had to make a u-turn regarding a franchise - how the Sonics play to start the season will have at least a small impact on how receptive the region is to throwing more money at Bennett's team.

And that's where the unsettled feeling in my stomach comes in. If you look at the first month of the season, and pick the games based on how Vegas would look at them, well, the Sonics might not exactly get off to a hot start. In fact, they could get off to a real lousy start:

at Denver (loss), Phoenix (loss), at Clippers (loss), at Sacramento (loss), Memphis (win), Utah (loss), Detroit (loss), at Orlando (loss), at Miami (loss).

That's 1-8 after 9 games. You can argue that the Sonics might steal a win in Sacramento, or in Orlando, or at home against the Jazz or the Pistons, but if you had $100 to wager on any of those events, you'd probably go with Seattle's opponent, right?

The schedule eases a bit after that, and the Sonics could finish up November by splitting the remaining 8 games, giving them a record of 5-12 entering December.

As I said before, the arena situation and the Sonics' future will probably be settled in advance of that first month of games, but it may not. Let's just hope that it is.

Annnnnd Nooooooow, Your Seattle Suuuuuuuper......

Let’s play Coach today. Assume the Sonics’ roster is set (I know, I know), and that this is your depth chart:

PG: Ridnour, Watson, West
SG: Durant, Szczerbiak, West
SF: Green, Wilkins, Gelabale
PF: Wilcox, Collison, Green, Petro
C: Thomas, Swift, Collison

So, which five names should Matt Pittman call out when the Sonics take the floor against the Suns on November 1?

Here are my nominations:

Watson, Durant, Green, Wilcox, Thomas

Off the bench (in order):

West, Collison, Wally, Ridnour, Swift, Wilkins, Gelly, Petro

As some of the smarter commenters have pointed out, it’s unlikely that Luke will be dealt until next summer because he’s a base-year compensation player, and that makes it difficult to work out a deal unless 3 teams are involved. Unless a deal with Earl can be worked out, it appears we will be re-staging the “Luke and Earl Soap Opera” that proved so unpopular last year.

But that’s just my uninformed opinion. Anybody think Durant should be at the 3 with Green off the bench? Are you hungry to see Swift get a chance to start? How about Nick Collison; does his January-February monster run entitle him to the starting spot?

There are plenty of options, so have fun putting the jigsaw puzzle together.

Sonics News in August

Shockingly, there's actually something to read about today, as both the PI and TNT have news.

Gary Washburn reports that the Sonics will open on the road against the Nuggets, although the official schedule won't come out until later today.

[UPDATE: Here's the schedule. Hold onto your hats, the Sonics are playing on Christmas Day, against the Blazers!]

But the meaty story is from Eric Williams in the TNT, where Mayor Greg Nickels is talking about the Sonics kicking in $100 million towards either renovating Key Arena or building a new facility altogether.

“Our door is open [to Bennett and the Sonics],” Nickels is quoted as saying in Williams' story. “It will be open today. It will be open tomorrow. It will be open Oct. 31.”

The key person in the story is state auditor Brian Sonntag, who is looking to act as mediator between the city and Bennett's ownership group. Sonntag - unlike most of the folks involved in this situation - doesn't seem to care how the arena kerfuffle gets settled, so as long as it gets settled with the Sonics still settled in Seattle.

My only quibble with the $100 million is whether that comes from arena naming rights, or from Bennett's pocket. If Bennett's $100 million comes from selling the rights to the name of the building, then I'm less than impressed.

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Williams also reports that Jeff Green has been added to the practice squad for the Olympic team, joining Nick Collison and Kevin Durant, and that PJ Carlesimo will join the coaching staff.

Shaq's Big Score

Two months ago, I wrote a snide comment about Shaquille O'Neal's new reality television show, a show which purported to show Shaq helping six young kids go from obese to fit.

After all, I reasoned, isn't it a bit hypocritical for Shaq - who's notorious for not getting into shape until the playoffs appear on the horizon - to teach youngsters how to work hard?

Well, color me corrected. I'll admit that I got hooked on the show, and watched most of the episodes, and from that small sample, I can honestly say that all the bloggers and columnists who teased Shaq about this idea owe him a great, big obese apology. Because if you watched the show, you saw that O'Neal cared about the kids, and, more importantly, cared about the epidemic of overweight kids that plagues the U.S.

There are plenty of writers who sit back, do nothing, and criticize someone who tries and fails. Well, Shaq saw a problem, thought he could do something about it, and succeeded. If it's just the six kids that improve their lives, that's success in and of itself. But if 600 or 6,000 kids get the message, that's even better. And if educators and administrators and parents across this country smell the frying bacon and wake up to the fact that they are doing a grave disservice to their children and students by providing them with fast food and a lack of physical activity, that's even better still.

Kudos, Shaq, on a job well done.

The Rick Sund Follies

A great article at Wages of Wins explores the correlation between rookie year performance and career performance. As a Sonic fan, it's not the performance of Jeff Green or Kevin Durant that intrigues me (those guys will be fine, I'm sure), it's the performance - or lack thereof - of Johan Petro, Robert Swift, and Mo Sene.

The crux of the article is that there is a 0.67 correlation between what a guy does his first year in the league and what he does the rest of his career. In other words, if Joe Player averages 8 ppg his rookie year, his career ppg is going to be somewhat close to that. Or, in the case of the Three Amigos mentioned before, if you average 2 ppg, well, you get the picture.

Now, as the author freely points out, he did not adjust for 18-year-old rookies vs. college senior rookies, or for players who are in their 1st year of organized basketball vs. players who have been dribbling since they were three. Still, it makes you pause a bit, doesn't it, to think that it's possible that only 1 of the 3 wundercenters drafted by Sund will ever pan out, and even that 1 is relatively unlikely.

Oklahoma!

Is there anything more pathetic than a sportswriter from Oklahoma making fun of Seattle?

Hey, Barry Tramel, your state's claim to fame begins with having the country's first parking meters and ends with Brian Bosworth. You've got an arena that isn't up to NBA standards, and even your patron saint, Clay Bennett, says it needs to be replaced within a couple of years, meaning your city is going to be staring down the barrel of his Relocation Shotgun just like we are now.

Ordinarily, the offended citizens of a city rise up in defense of their fair city when an outsider criticizes it, but when the critic lives in Oklahoma, well, you just kind of laugh it off.

Tell you what, Mr. Tramel, when you've got NCAA football and basketball teams, an NFL team, a MLB team, and an NBA team, and have supported them for 30+ years, then we'll talk.

Until then, shut up.

Northwest Upheaval

Has one division ever gone through so thorough a transformation in the span of two months as the Northwest Division has?

Think about the players who have arrived or departed since June:

Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett, Al Jefferson, Zach Randolph

And those are just the big-name guys. The list doesn’t include Chucky Atkins, Ryan Gomes, Kurt Thomas, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Jeff Green, Channing Frye, Stevie Francis, Taurean Green, Steve Blake, James Jones, Theo Ratliff’s contract, Corey Brewer, Derek Fisher, Morris Almond, Jason Hart, Juwan Howard, or Mike James.

And that’s just since June! Here’s a quick rundown on what has transpired since the NW Division flamed out with the Jazz’ loss to the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals what seems like 7 years ago.

DENVER
The Nuggets took a breath after picking up Allen Iverson mid-season, looked around, and decided, “What the hell, we’ve got Melo, AI, and Camby. The rest of our division hasn’t done squat since the mid-90s, why should we do anything?” Denver added Chucky Atkins, watched JR Smith get involved in a horrific (and fatal) car crash, let Steve Blake walk away, and now hopes that the Atkins/Iverson combo will be able to defend guards taller than 6’2”. Good luck with that.

UTAH
Was last season a fluke? Hey, I’m not one to bet against Jerry Sloan, but when the highest-paid guy on your team (AK47), is publicly sparring with your head coach, that can’t be good for your future. The Jazz added Morris Almond and Kyrylo Feseneko in the draft, picked up Jason Hart to replace Derek Fisher, signed Ronnie Price, and may send Dee Brown away. In other words, they’re sticking with Carlos Boozer & Co., thank you very much.

PORTLAND
Whew. Let’s see, they add Channing Frye, Greg Oden, Taurean Green, Josh McRoberts, Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez, and Petteri Koponen, and deal away Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau, and Freddie Jones. Got all that? Paul Allen’s hiring of Kevin Pritchard looks pretty good from here, and I’m guessing Nate McMillan will have quite a bit of fun beating up on the Sonics this year. Call me crazy, but a healthy Greg Oden puts the Blazers right there with Denver and Utah for the best in the Northwest.

MINNESOTA
Let’s assume the Garnett deal is consummated this week. The Wolves will have added Al Jefferson and the rest of the crapola, picked up Corey Brewer, traded Mike James for the always-reliable Juwan Howard (?) ... and extended Randy Wittman for the wonderful job he did of guiding the Wolves to a 12-30 record down the stretch last year. A lot of people will criticize Kevin McHale, but I love the guy. After all, if it wasn’t for McHale, the Sonics would probably be guaranteed to finish in the basement this year.

SEATTLE
Like Portland, the Sonics keep nba.com busy updating their roster page. Gone are Allen and Lewis, incoming are Durant, Green, and Thomas, not to mention Wally World and Delonte West. This season is probably a write-off, and there are likely a couple of trades still to come as Sam Presti attempts to remake the roster. 35 wins is the best the Sonics can hope for this year. That, and the team to stick around past next spring.

The Rookie

I think there’s a pretty broad consensus out there that young Kevin Durant will lead Seattle in scoring this season. It got me to wondering: When was the last time a rookie led the Sonics in points per game?

Well, it’s been a long time. Xavier McDaniel was close, leading the team in overall points in 1985-86, but falling short of Tommy Chambers in ppg (And as an aside: How does a team with Chambers, the X-Man, and Jack Sikma win all of 31 games and miss the playoffs?).

No, you have to go back to 1970-71, when Spencer Haywood, a 21-year-old import from the ABA, played 33 games and averaged 20.6 ppg, besting Lenny Wilkens for tops on the team. Even then, it’s a bit of a stretch, considering Haywood played in fewer than half of the team’s games, not to mention that he played the year before for Denver with the red, white and blue ball. If you go by league rules for determining a scoring champ, then Haywood doesn’t qualify either.

So there you go. Through seven presidential administrations, the creation of the Mariners and Seahawks, the building and demolition of the Kingdome, seven James Bonds, and the emergence, disappearance, and re-birth of bell-bottoms, the Sonics have existed for 41 years without having a rookie lead them in scoring. Until now.

We’re in uncharted waters here, folks.

Presto! Orlando conjures up new arena

As mentioned at Third Quarter Collapse, the Orlando Magic have gone and got themselves a new toy as the Orange County Commission (“Now with more pulp!”) approved funds to construct a new facility.

Along with wondering what dorky names they can call this new palace (Orlando Orena? Amway Pyramid Scheme? Suburban Blight Palace?), the locals are already giddy with the thought of luring ... an East Coast Hockey League team! Because you know the only thing less popular than a National Hockey League team is an East Coast Hockey League team!

Best of all was this quote from Alex Martins, the COO of the Magic, swiped from Tim Povtak of the Orlando Sentinel:

"We want to have the newest, greatest, best facility in the country,” Martins said.

Gee, I wonder where I heard that before? Just a metaphysical question here: If the Sonics’ new arena is the best facility in the country and the Magic new arena is the best facility in the country, can they exist in the same universe? Would there be an Arenamania, where the buildings battle to the death to determine who gets the right to call himself The Best?

Just curious.

Tenacious D

If you’re going to use any word as the headline for the Sonics this summer, I think it would be change. With a revamped roster and front office, to say nothing of the potential departure of the franchise, that’s a natural.

But what would be the second word? I think anyone who has followed this team’s fortunes for the last few months would agree that defense would qualify. Defense, or perhaps culture, but let’s not revisit that oft-used word which, like a slow driver dawdling in the passing lane, drives your earnest narrator to such agitation.

Where was I? Oh, right, defense. In his brief tenure, Sam Presti has consistently looked for players that play defense (‘What about Wally World?’ Quiet, you.). At the same time, he has shed the team of players who are, well, let’s be nice and say not exactly candidates for defensive player of the year.

With that in mind, and with Jon Nichols’ fine article at 82games about defensive ratings fresh in my mind, here’s a chart listing the departed players and arriving players, with their defensive ratings to accompany them (and before you read the article, brace yourself for seeing Paul Millsap’s name listed in the top ten; yes, the same Millsap the Sonics passed on in order to select Mo Sene. How ya doin’, Rick Sund?):

ARRIVING, DCS, Def +/-, Drtg
Wally Szczerbiak, 1, +5.4, 110
Delonte West, 48, +3.0, 108
Kurt Thomas, 75, -4.9, 103

DEPARTING
Ray Allen, 31, +1.3, 112
Rashard Lewis, 59, -1.1, 110

Some explanations. DCS is Nichols’ compilation stat that rates players based upon box score statistics, +/- numbers, and Dean Oliver’s defensive rating. Rather than relying on a single defensive stat, it compiles three of them to give a better illustration of a player’s defensive abilities.

And, from the statistics Nichols uses, it’s obvious the Sonics have made an improvement on defense just with the small sample shown above (with the notable exception of Szczerbiak, who checked in as the 3rd worst (!) defender in the entire NBA last season). Thomas’ numbers are extremely good, and West is easily better than either Ray Allen or Luke Ridnour, the folks from whom he will likely take minutes. From another angle, Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis played 4,500 minutes for the Sonics last season and contributed 6.3 defensive win shares. Thomas and West, in only 3,400 minutes, contributed 9.6 defensive win shares. In an equal number of minutes, they would have produced more than twice as many DWS as Allen/Lewis.

In fact, when you add in Jeff Green’s abilities as a small forward, this team is immensely better on the defensive end, especially when you think of a lineup of West, Durant, Green, Collison and Thomas. Call me crazy, but that has got to be one of the better defensive lineups in the league – better, that is, if Kevin Durant is ready to guard the talented two guards that populate the league. A big if, certainly.

Still, if Sam Presti’s goal this summer was the remake this team into a better defensive one, I think we can safely say: Mission accomplished.

Young Blood

As it stands today, the Sonics have 14 players on their roster. Just to make all you 30-something guys out there feel even older, ponder this for a moment:

Out of those 14, guess how many were born before 1980?

Give up?

3.

That's right, 11 of the 14 players on the Seattle SuperSonics were born post-Jimmy Carter. Wally Szczerbiak (1977), Kurt Thomas (1972), and Earl Watson (1979) are the only holdovers from the Donna Summer Decade.

Where have you gone, Clemon Johnson? A Sonic Nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Predicting Kevin Durant

With the pre-season still far off in the future, and with not much else on the go, I thought I’d start taking a look at what we can expect from the Sonics this year. Naturally, the first guy on the docket is Kevin Durant. Heck, who else did you expect me to write about, Zabian Dowdell? (Okay, I admit it, I considered Little Z first, but that would have been going too far).

Durant is a tough guy to predict – he’s as tall as most power forwards, but he’s got the ability to play shooting guard. He can dunk, shoot 3’s, rebound (allegedly), and run the break with equal aplomb. He’s also 19 and as is so thin he looks like he could squeeze through the bars of a jail cell without too much difficulty. Can he withstand the banging and pounding that is (less so now, but still) so commonplace in the NBA?

The other problem with predicting Durant is that he has no obvious comparisons. Carmelo Anthony is similar, but not really. Dirk Nowitzki is one possibility, but Dirk was a European who no experience in North America his rookie season, and a teenager to boot. LeBron is another option, but he spent no time in college, and their bodies are completely different.

With that in mind, here are the 3 most-recent superstars to emerge from the draft, and how they did their rookie seasons as compared to their freshman years in college (with the obvious exception of LBJ:

Carmelo Anthony:
Freshman Year: 45%, 33%, 22 ppg, 10 rpg, 36 mpg
Rookie Year: 43%, 32%, 21 ppg, 6 rpg, 36 mpg

Dwyane Wade:
Freshman Year: 49%, 35%, 17.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 32 mpg
Rookie Year: 47%, 30%, 16.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 35 mpg

LeBron James:
Rookie Year: 42%, 29%, 21 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 40 mpg

Kevin Durant:
Freshman Year: 47%, 40%, 26 ppg, 11 rpg, 36 mpg

(The percentages are FG and 3FG, respectively)

Once again, Durant defies comparison. His numbers are better across the board compared to those guys. You might be surprised – as I was – to see how similar Wade and Anthony were in their rookie years to their freshman seasons. Naturally, I don’t expect Durant to put up a 26-11 this season (especially since he won’t have a 20’ 3-pointer as an option this year), but considering that both Wade and Anthony played at about 90% of their levels their rookie seasons, is it that unreasonable to expect Durant to put up about 22-7 this year? I don’t think so.

Plus, if Durant stays at the 2-guard this year, as many expect, he’s going to come close to matching his block totals from Texas (2 per game) just from the simple reason of guarding much smaller players.

I think it’s safe to say that the Sonics will be looking not only at someone who will be the odds-on favorite to be Rookie of the Year, but someone who could very well contend for a spot on the All-Star Team this year. That last claim might be overly optimistic, but I’d certainly say there’s a 50% chance he does it. First, he has no competition on his team when it comes to shot attempts, and, second, his college numbers were so good you have to expect him to register something pretty impressive this year.

Now, about that 185-pound bench press ...