A great article at Wages of Wins explores the correlation between rookie year performance and career performance. As a Sonic fan, it's not the performance of Jeff Green or Kevin Durant that intrigues me (those guys will be fine, I'm sure), it's the performance - or lack thereof - of Johan Petro, Robert Swift, and Mo Sene.
The crux of the article is that there is a 0.67 correlation between what a guy does his first year in the league and what he does the rest of his career. In other words, if Joe Player averages 8 ppg his rookie year, his career ppg is going to be somewhat close to that. Or, in the case of the Three Amigos mentioned before, if you average 2 ppg, well, you get the picture.
Now, as the author freely points out, he did not adjust for 18-year-old rookies vs. college senior rookies, or for players who are in their 1st year of organized basketball vs. players who have been dribbling since they were three. Still, it makes you pause a bit, doesn't it, to think that it's possible that only 1 of the 3 wundercenters drafted by Sund will ever pan out, and even that 1 is relatively unlikely.