Oklahoma!

Is there anything more pathetic than a sportswriter from Oklahoma making fun of Seattle?

Hey, Barry Tramel, your state's claim to fame begins with having the country's first parking meters and ends with Brian Bosworth. You've got an arena that isn't up to NBA standards, and even your patron saint, Clay Bennett, says it needs to be replaced within a couple of years, meaning your city is going to be staring down the barrel of his Relocation Shotgun just like we are now.

Ordinarily, the offended citizens of a city rise up in defense of their fair city when an outsider criticizes it, but when the critic lives in Oklahoma, well, you just kind of laugh it off.

Tell you what, Mr. Tramel, when you've got NCAA football and basketball teams, an NFL team, a MLB team, and an NBA team, and have supported them for 30+ years, then we'll talk.

Until then, shut up.

Northwest Upheaval

Has one division ever gone through so thorough a transformation in the span of two months as the Northwest Division has?

Think about the players who have arrived or departed since June:

Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Garnett, Al Jefferson, Zach Randolph

And those are just the big-name guys. The list doesn’t include Chucky Atkins, Ryan Gomes, Kurt Thomas, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Jeff Green, Channing Frye, Stevie Francis, Taurean Green, Steve Blake, James Jones, Theo Ratliff’s contract, Corey Brewer, Derek Fisher, Morris Almond, Jason Hart, Juwan Howard, or Mike James.

And that’s just since June! Here’s a quick rundown on what has transpired since the NW Division flamed out with the Jazz’ loss to the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals what seems like 7 years ago.

DENVER
The Nuggets took a breath after picking up Allen Iverson mid-season, looked around, and decided, “What the hell, we’ve got Melo, AI, and Camby. The rest of our division hasn’t done squat since the mid-90s, why should we do anything?” Denver added Chucky Atkins, watched JR Smith get involved in a horrific (and fatal) car crash, let Steve Blake walk away, and now hopes that the Atkins/Iverson combo will be able to defend guards taller than 6’2”. Good luck with that.

UTAH
Was last season a fluke? Hey, I’m not one to bet against Jerry Sloan, but when the highest-paid guy on your team (AK47), is publicly sparring with your head coach, that can’t be good for your future. The Jazz added Morris Almond and Kyrylo Feseneko in the draft, picked up Jason Hart to replace Derek Fisher, signed Ronnie Price, and may send Dee Brown away. In other words, they’re sticking with Carlos Boozer & Co., thank you very much.

PORTLAND
Whew. Let’s see, they add Channing Frye, Greg Oden, Taurean Green, Josh McRoberts, Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez, and Petteri Koponen, and deal away Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau, and Freddie Jones. Got all that? Paul Allen’s hiring of Kevin Pritchard looks pretty good from here, and I’m guessing Nate McMillan will have quite a bit of fun beating up on the Sonics this year. Call me crazy, but a healthy Greg Oden puts the Blazers right there with Denver and Utah for the best in the Northwest.

MINNESOTA
Let’s assume the Garnett deal is consummated this week. The Wolves will have added Al Jefferson and the rest of the crapola, picked up Corey Brewer, traded Mike James for the always-reliable Juwan Howard (?) ... and extended Randy Wittman for the wonderful job he did of guiding the Wolves to a 12-30 record down the stretch last year. A lot of people will criticize Kevin McHale, but I love the guy. After all, if it wasn’t for McHale, the Sonics would probably be guaranteed to finish in the basement this year.

SEATTLE
Like Portland, the Sonics keep nba.com busy updating their roster page. Gone are Allen and Lewis, incoming are Durant, Green, and Thomas, not to mention Wally World and Delonte West. This season is probably a write-off, and there are likely a couple of trades still to come as Sam Presti attempts to remake the roster. 35 wins is the best the Sonics can hope for this year. That, and the team to stick around past next spring.

The Rookie

I think there’s a pretty broad consensus out there that young Kevin Durant will lead Seattle in scoring this season. It got me to wondering: When was the last time a rookie led the Sonics in points per game?

Well, it’s been a long time. Xavier McDaniel was close, leading the team in overall points in 1985-86, but falling short of Tommy Chambers in ppg (And as an aside: How does a team with Chambers, the X-Man, and Jack Sikma win all of 31 games and miss the playoffs?).

No, you have to go back to 1970-71, when Spencer Haywood, a 21-year-old import from the ABA, played 33 games and averaged 20.6 ppg, besting Lenny Wilkens for tops on the team. Even then, it’s a bit of a stretch, considering Haywood played in fewer than half of the team’s games, not to mention that he played the year before for Denver with the red, white and blue ball. If you go by league rules for determining a scoring champ, then Haywood doesn’t qualify either.

So there you go. Through seven presidential administrations, the creation of the Mariners and Seahawks, the building and demolition of the Kingdome, seven James Bonds, and the emergence, disappearance, and re-birth of bell-bottoms, the Sonics have existed for 41 years without having a rookie lead them in scoring. Until now.

We’re in uncharted waters here, folks.

Presto! Orlando conjures up new arena

As mentioned at Third Quarter Collapse, the Orlando Magic have gone and got themselves a new toy as the Orange County Commission (“Now with more pulp!”) approved funds to construct a new facility.

Along with wondering what dorky names they can call this new palace (Orlando Orena? Amway Pyramid Scheme? Suburban Blight Palace?), the locals are already giddy with the thought of luring ... an East Coast Hockey League team! Because you know the only thing less popular than a National Hockey League team is an East Coast Hockey League team!

Best of all was this quote from Alex Martins, the COO of the Magic, swiped from Tim Povtak of the Orlando Sentinel:

"We want to have the newest, greatest, best facility in the country,” Martins said.

Gee, I wonder where I heard that before? Just a metaphysical question here: If the Sonics’ new arena is the best facility in the country and the Magic new arena is the best facility in the country, can they exist in the same universe? Would there be an Arenamania, where the buildings battle to the death to determine who gets the right to call himself The Best?

Just curious.

Tenacious D

If you’re going to use any word as the headline for the Sonics this summer, I think it would be change. With a revamped roster and front office, to say nothing of the potential departure of the franchise, that’s a natural.

But what would be the second word? I think anyone who has followed this team’s fortunes for the last few months would agree that defense would qualify. Defense, or perhaps culture, but let’s not revisit that oft-used word which, like a slow driver dawdling in the passing lane, drives your earnest narrator to such agitation.

Where was I? Oh, right, defense. In his brief tenure, Sam Presti has consistently looked for players that play defense (‘What about Wally World?’ Quiet, you.). At the same time, he has shed the team of players who are, well, let’s be nice and say not exactly candidates for defensive player of the year.

With that in mind, and with Jon Nichols’ fine article at 82games about defensive ratings fresh in my mind, here’s a chart listing the departed players and arriving players, with their defensive ratings to accompany them (and before you read the article, brace yourself for seeing Paul Millsap’s name listed in the top ten; yes, the same Millsap the Sonics passed on in order to select Mo Sene. How ya doin’, Rick Sund?):

ARRIVING, DCS, Def +/-, Drtg
Wally Szczerbiak, 1, +5.4, 110
Delonte West, 48, +3.0, 108
Kurt Thomas, 75, -4.9, 103

DEPARTING
Ray Allen, 31, +1.3, 112
Rashard Lewis, 59, -1.1, 110

Some explanations. DCS is Nichols’ compilation stat that rates players based upon box score statistics, +/- numbers, and Dean Oliver’s defensive rating. Rather than relying on a single defensive stat, it compiles three of them to give a better illustration of a player’s defensive abilities.

And, from the statistics Nichols uses, it’s obvious the Sonics have made an improvement on defense just with the small sample shown above (with the notable exception of Szczerbiak, who checked in as the 3rd worst (!) defender in the entire NBA last season). Thomas’ numbers are extremely good, and West is easily better than either Ray Allen or Luke Ridnour, the folks from whom he will likely take minutes. From another angle, Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis played 4,500 minutes for the Sonics last season and contributed 6.3 defensive win shares. Thomas and West, in only 3,400 minutes, contributed 9.6 defensive win shares. In an equal number of minutes, they would have produced more than twice as many DWS as Allen/Lewis.

In fact, when you add in Jeff Green’s abilities as a small forward, this team is immensely better on the defensive end, especially when you think of a lineup of West, Durant, Green, Collison and Thomas. Call me crazy, but that has got to be one of the better defensive lineups in the league – better, that is, if Kevin Durant is ready to guard the talented two guards that populate the league. A big if, certainly.

Still, if Sam Presti’s goal this summer was the remake this team into a better defensive one, I think we can safely say: Mission accomplished.

Young Blood

As it stands today, the Sonics have 14 players on their roster. Just to make all you 30-something guys out there feel even older, ponder this for a moment:

Out of those 14, guess how many were born before 1980?

Give up?

3.

That's right, 11 of the 14 players on the Seattle SuperSonics were born post-Jimmy Carter. Wally Szczerbiak (1977), Kurt Thomas (1972), and Earl Watson (1979) are the only holdovers from the Donna Summer Decade.

Where have you gone, Clemon Johnson? A Sonic Nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Predicting Kevin Durant

With the pre-season still far off in the future, and with not much else on the go, I thought I’d start taking a look at what we can expect from the Sonics this year. Naturally, the first guy on the docket is Kevin Durant. Heck, who else did you expect me to write about, Zabian Dowdell? (Okay, I admit it, I considered Little Z first, but that would have been going too far).

Durant is a tough guy to predict – he’s as tall as most power forwards, but he’s got the ability to play shooting guard. He can dunk, shoot 3’s, rebound (allegedly), and run the break with equal aplomb. He’s also 19 and as is so thin he looks like he could squeeze through the bars of a jail cell without too much difficulty. Can he withstand the banging and pounding that is (less so now, but still) so commonplace in the NBA?

The other problem with predicting Durant is that he has no obvious comparisons. Carmelo Anthony is similar, but not really. Dirk Nowitzki is one possibility, but Dirk was a European who no experience in North America his rookie season, and a teenager to boot. LeBron is another option, but he spent no time in college, and their bodies are completely different.

With that in mind, here are the 3 most-recent superstars to emerge from the draft, and how they did their rookie seasons as compared to their freshman years in college (with the obvious exception of LBJ:

Carmelo Anthony:
Freshman Year: 45%, 33%, 22 ppg, 10 rpg, 36 mpg
Rookie Year: 43%, 32%, 21 ppg, 6 rpg, 36 mpg

Dwyane Wade:
Freshman Year: 49%, 35%, 17.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 32 mpg
Rookie Year: 47%, 30%, 16.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 35 mpg

LeBron James:
Rookie Year: 42%, 29%, 21 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 40 mpg

Kevin Durant:
Freshman Year: 47%, 40%, 26 ppg, 11 rpg, 36 mpg

(The percentages are FG and 3FG, respectively)

Once again, Durant defies comparison. His numbers are better across the board compared to those guys. You might be surprised – as I was – to see how similar Wade and Anthony were in their rookie years to their freshman seasons. Naturally, I don’t expect Durant to put up a 26-11 this season (especially since he won’t have a 20’ 3-pointer as an option this year), but considering that both Wade and Anthony played at about 90% of their levels their rookie seasons, is it that unreasonable to expect Durant to put up about 22-7 this year? I don’t think so.

Plus, if Durant stays at the 2-guard this year, as many expect, he’s going to come close to matching his block totals from Texas (2 per game) just from the simple reason of guarding much smaller players.

I think it’s safe to say that the Sonics will be looking not only at someone who will be the odds-on favorite to be Rookie of the Year, but someone who could very well contend for a spot on the All-Star Team this year. That last claim might be overly optimistic, but I’d certainly say there’s a 50% chance he does it. First, he has no competition on his team when it comes to shot attempts, and, second, his college numbers were so good you have to expect him to register something pretty impressive this year.

Now, about that 185-pound bench press ...

Save our Sonics Press Conference Today

Our pals at Save Our Sonics are holding a big press conference at Mainstage Comedy Club (a great joint right across from Key Arena) to talk about their new "A Deal is a Deal" initiative. From the press release:

On June 27, 2007 Steven Pyeatt and Brian Robinson, founding members of Save Our Sonics and Storm, formally registered A Deal is a Deal Committee (DIAD) with the State of Washington with the intention of filing a citywide initiative relating to the lease status of the Seattle SuperSonics and Storm.

“A Deal is a Deal” will mandate that the city not be a partner to any agreement in which a professional sports team relocates prior to the expiration of their existing lease, effectively making binding the pre-existing Sonics lease through the 2009-2010 season.

Initial support for this action has been extremely broad-based. The initiative has been reviewed and endorsed by anti-arena activist Chris Van Dyk, co-chair of Citizens for More Important Things. Van Dyk, along with members of the Queen Anne Business Community, will join DIAD, PAC members to announce the formal submittal of the initiative later this week. At that time the text of the initiative, as well as volunteer and contributor information will be released. Media members will be given a statement regarding this action, as well as engage in question and answer sessions with legal council, supporters, and affected Seattle Area business owners.

That's right--Chris "I hate sports" Van Dyk is on board! What is this topsy-turvy world coming to?

Here are all the details:

Press Conference: Thursday, July 26, 2007, 3:00 pm

The Mainstage Comedy Club

315 First Avenue, Seattle

Contact: Brian Robinson, Director

Phone: 206.349.6447

E-mail: brian@adealisadeal.org

Odds and Ends

Before last season, I wrote that I expected the Sonics to do better than the odds-makers predicted. I felt that Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis would be enough to propel the Sonics to a high 30s mark (Hey, at least I wasn't as optimistic as some guys at sonicscentral.com I'm not going to name names, but I seem to recall someone saying the Sonics had the capability of winning 45-50 games).

Well, I can't brag too much, because the Vegas folks were pretty close to the final result. Most books had the Sonics at about 32 wins, and they finished with 31. Injuries, chemistry, whatever ... the Sonics pulled in right on target, and none of us were too thrilled by that.

What about this year, though? The roster is revamped, the coaching staff is gone, and the front office is re-made in the "Seattle Spurs" model so coveted by our beloved owner. How will that play out?

I haven't found any specific numbers yet, but one book apparently thinks the Sonics have improved. At +6000, the Sonics pull in ahead of the bottom-dwellers, the +10000 club that includes Memphis, Boston, Atlanta, etc. This one feels about the same. Vegas Insider.com is less optimistic, putting the Sonics ahead of only Philly and the Grizzlies in the entire league. Of course, that was before the Sonics acquired Kurt Thomas, and he's worth a couple dozens wins by himself, right? Um, yeah, nevermind.

Vegasinsider.com aside, most of the other betting sites peg the Sonics as what you could deduce as a 35-40 win team. Not the dreck of the league, but not a playoff team, either. Kind of like the Mariners would be if JJ Putz wasn't doing his best Goose Gossage impersonation this season.

Personally, I'm a little less optimistic. I reserve the right to amend my prediction as the summer progresses, but I'm puttting the Sonics' total wins at 34. Two things could sway that, though:

1. If Sam Presti makes some more moves and adds pieces that will help the team this year
2. If Minnesota trades Kevin Garnett. The Wolves will be pretty bad, regardless, but trading Garnett makes them a 15-20 win team, which means 2-4 extra wins for the Sonics.

So, I've put my big mouth out there. How about the rest of you? Does 34 sound about right, or are you all aboard the Good Ship Durant, ready to set sail for the Land of Playoffs and 45 wins?

Dave Ross to talk about new Sonics Initiative

I just found out that Dave Ross is going to be talking about the new Sonics initiative being put together by our pals at SaveOurSonics on his show this morning on 710 KIRO.

I love Dave Ross, but he's been dead set against doing anything to help the Sonics. If you disagree, call in to the show or e-mail your comments.

Minutes

Acquiring Kurt Thomas put another shovel of cement into the foundation for next season’s Sonic roster. It’s been a tough summer in trying to figure out possible roster configuration and moves, simply because so much of the roster is or has been in flux.

So many questions: Is Luke Ridnour on the block? Will either Damien Wilkins or Mickael Gelabale be forced into reduced minutes, or traded? How does Chris Wilcox fit into the new, defense-oriented mindset, and how many minutes does he get now that Kevin Durant and Jeff Green are in Sonic jerseys?

If you look at the roster as it stands today, this is what you get:

Swift, Thomas, Petro, Sene, Wilcox, Collison, Durant, Green, Wilkins, Gelabale, Szczerbiak, West, Watson, Ridnour

That’s 14 people, not including Brandon Heath, Will Blalock, Quinton Hosley, Zabian Dowdell, Kenny Adeleke, or any of the other people currently on the Sonics’ summer league roster. It also doesn’t include a 3rd-string point guard, although West could fit that duty.

It seems rather plain then that more moves are coming. Here are some that I would expect:

1. Mo Sene is headed for the NBDL. This seems obvious to me. He’s taking up a roster spot on a team that needs them, and he plays a position that is already well stocked. Plus, he needs the playing time.

2. Either Watson or Ridnour will be traded this summer. This also seems obvious. Going beyond the painful chemistry between the two, it’s a simple minute-distribution situation. There are only 240 minutes to distribute to 13 or 14 players, and neither of those two guys will be happy playing 10-15 minutes. I’m leaning towards Frodo being dealt.

3. Wilkins or Gelabale will be traded this summer. Again, there just aren’t enough minutes for these guys. Damien averaged 25 minutes a game last season and Gelly averaged close to 18. That can’t happen on this team because the math just doesn’t work. Look at it from this perspective, bearing in mind that player minute averages don’t truly indicate the minutes used in a game, because of injuries:

Allen(40)+Lewis(39)+Gelly(17)+Wilkins(25)=121 minutes
Durant(30)+Green(30)+West(30)+Szczerbiak(20)=110 minutes

That leaves 10 minutes for Damien and Gelly. As they say in Texas, that dog won’t hunt. Obviously, Wally could wind up at 10-15 minutes a night, and you figure he’s going to miss at least 25-30 games due to muscle pulls, ankle sprains, hair gel emergencies, etc., so there’s room for Damien or Gelly, but not both. Their only chance for reprieve would be, as Brian pointed out at SonicsCentral, if Szczerbiak gets traded in August, which is possible.

4. Johan Petro will be dealt this summer. This is the most likely of the possibilities, simply because I’m sick of watching the guy. C’mon Sam, you’ve done everything else right this summer, can’t you swing a deal for a late first-round, early second-round pick for the Frenchman?

5. Chris Wilcox might be traded this summer. This is the least likely, but still possible. Wilcox doesn’t play much D, takes minutes away from Collison and/or Green at PF, and he has value. In the light of the Thomas acquisition, The Seattle Times ran the possibility of Collison being traded up the flagpole, but I don’t think it will happen, simply because Collison fits so nicely into Sam Presti’s type of player, while Wilcox does not. Plus, Wilcox will be a valuable piece of trade material next summer, as his contract expires the following summer.

It’s a complicated situation, but when you attempt a wholesale slash and burn of a roster, as the Sonics have this summer, it’s inevitable that the pieces don’t fit back together easily. Somewhere along the way, Presti will have to find a 3-for-1 deal out there, even if it means adding a veteran he’d rather not have, or else the chemistry problems the Sonics endured last season will look like child’s play.

Team USA: Durant Better Than Advertised

I can't believe I missed this:

LAS VEGAS, July 22, 2007 -- His name already belongs in the same conversation as LeBron James, Frank Robinson and Wayne Gretzky as being considered one of the most dominant teenage athletes of all time, but when it's all said in done, we might be mentioning Kevin Durant with the likes of Bobby Fischer, Mozart, Will Hunting and Doogie Howser as perhaps one of greatest prodigies to ever live.

Through the first two days of Team USA's mini-camp, Durant has without a doubt been one of the top six or seven performers despite being just 18-years old and playing with 16 other guys who all have been through multiple NBA seasons.

- - - -

Not surprisingly then, on Friday it was Durant's offense that got everybody's attention as "KD," as he's called by the team, stroked shot after shot during the intrasquad scrimmages, hitting somewhere in the neighborhood of eight of his 10 shot attempts by this writer's memory.

"He’s just shooting the [expletive] out of the ball,” Team USA tri-captain Carmelo Anthony said about his fellow Baltimore-area native and Oak Hill Academy product, Durant.

- - - -

On Saturday, Durant showed his all-around game, quickly picking up the zone defense that assistant coach Jim Boeheim implemented and making several plays on defense. Those included closing out from the baseline to the wing in a nano-second to swat a LeBron James pull-up jumper on one possession, and rotating into the lane to dig out a steal from the hands of Dwight Howard on another.

Read the rest at NBA.com

See video of Durant and Team USA here.

And they call me a fanboy!