Half-Full or Half-Empty?

It's funny how perspective changes how people perceive events. To an American, World War I was a border skirmish brought on by the death of Archduke Ferdinand. To a Frenchman, the War was an inevitability brought on by Germany's thirst for land and power. To a German, the War was caused by the disrespect shown to the Motherland by France and Britain.

Likewise, the Sonics' recent streak of five games. David Locke writes at the Sonics' website that the insertion of Nick Collison has been a cause for the recent streak of well-played games. Elsewhere, the web is abuzz with the Sonics' string of improved play.

But is it really improved play? After all, you'll recall that earlier this season, the Sonics went on a road trip where they lost two games by all of two baskets - games that from Sonics' fans' perspective were winnable. "If only Turkoglu had missed, or if the Heat had just not made one extra shot," we said, "we might have swept the whole road trip."

Funny how that "if only" applies to losses, but never to wins. For if one looks closely at this recent streak, one sees that the Sonics are two baskets away from losing three of five, rather than winning four of five. All of sudden, the Collison move isn't such a great one, is it? After all, Collison wasn't starting when the team played well on the road, was he? Ray Allen wasn't sidelined with a bum ankle and Watson and Wilkins revitalized, were they?

Of course, you'll remember how the Sonics played after that trip - they lost six of eight games.

The Sonics are due to start a five-game road trip tonight in Milwaukee. Four of the five games will be against playoff-caliber teams (okay, the Bucks aren't that great, but they're at home and the East kinda stinks this year), teams with a combined record of 27-11 at home. The Sonics will be picked to lose all four games on the road against the Eastern teams, and may be underdogs against the Grizzlies as well.

All of that means that the Sonics could come home from Memphis with a five-game losing streak, and all of that talk about how the Sonics are on the upswing will go straight down the toilet. Add in the continued absence of Ray Allen for the entire trip, and, well, count me as less than optimistic about the Sonics' chances.

Before the Warriors game I said I needed some more convincing before I could jump on the Sonics' bandwagon. The Sonics won, so I should be happy, right?

Well, I've come to the realization that the Sonics are going to continue to tease us all season. That's what mediocre teams do - they win games they shouldn't and lose games they shouldn't. You get overly exicted by mini-win streaks, then depressed after they lose at home to teams they should've destroyed. And who knows, maybe the Sonics will knock off the Bucks tonight and shock the Bulls on Wednesday, kick-starting a push for the top of the division.

I wouldn't bet on it, though.

Oh, Flip, You Make Me Laugh

I know we're all basking in the glow of a 3-game winning streak, and that there are plenty of juicy topics to chew on regarding the Sonics, but, well, this Flip Murray story just slays me.

"That's the kind of basketball I have played my whole life," sayeth Flip, regarding his role as the first option on offense for the second quarter of a recent game. "I've always been in that situation (No. 1 option). I just haven't found the right comfort zone in the NBA yet, where I can be that person."

This part, again:

"I've always been in that situation (No. 1 option)."

Right, Flip, you've always been the No. 1 option, if by No. option you mean "the first guy you put in when you're either leading or trailing by 15 points." Or, "the No. 1 option for selecting toppings on the lockerroom pizza."

Seriously, Murray's been in the league for going on five seasons now, and he still hasn't found a role as a starter in this league. Sorry, Flip, but if you think you deserve starter's minutes, perhaps you should give these guys a call.

Ray Who?

Nothing like a two game three game win streak, baby. The Sonics rode the rejuvenated Chris Wilcox (more on him in a moment) and a jacked-up Earl Watson to an easy, breezy 20-point win against the Hornets on Friday night in Seattle.

Lost in the shuffle - D.E.F.E.N.S.E. I'm talking 14 steals and 26 New Orleans turnovers type of defense. Earl racked up 5 on his own, and Wilkins and Ridnour combined for 7 steals.

On Wilcox, check out these numbers:

FGA in two games since Ray Allen got hurt: 29
FGA in previous FIVE games with Ray in lineup: 31

In other words, the points Ray was getting are going directly into Chris Wilcox' pocket (as well as some other guys, of course; i.e., Wilkins, Watson, etc.). Honestly, I was totally wrong about Rashard Lewis stepping up - either the Hornets were waiting for him to do it and they overcommitted to stop Lewis, or he's just not capable of being the guy on a consistent basis.

More importantly, it hasn't mattered. As always seems to happen in these cases, other people have helped - Watson, Wilcox, Wilkins, Gelabale, Petro - easing the hurt of Ray's absence.

All right, let's take a deep breath. The Sonics just got done knocking off two teams that aren't exactly title contenders. The Hawks and Hornets were a combined 4-9 in their most recent games before taking on Seattle, so a little restraint is due.

To me, the real test will come on Sunday at home against the Warriors. Golden State is on an even playing field with the Sonics. Both are teams that have performed below expectations, but both have a large number of talented players. Most important, both are possible end-of-the-playoff-bracket type teams. A win against the Warriors before the Sonics head out east for a 5-game trip would be flat-out fantastic.

Allen out 7 games

Well, Damien Wilkins sure won't be complaining about minutes now - Ray Allen will miss at least two weeks' worth games because of a contusion in his right ankle.

Personally, I'm sorry for Ray, but excited for Rashard Lewis. The next two weeks are a great opportunity for him to show that he is ready to be a #1 guy in the NBA. Lewis ought to lead the Sonics in scoring every night, and I hope he can boost his scoring enough to get everyone to realize how talented he is.

Add in the extra minutes for Wilkins, Gelabale and Watson, and the lockerroom ought to be a lot happier these days.

The Sonics will host New Orleans tonight. The Hornets opened the season at 8-3, but have dropped 5 of 6 and now stand at 9-8, partially explained by their complete lack of offense in four straight games, where they failed to score 85 points even once. Jannergo Pargo has been huge off the bench in the Hornets' last two games, and I hope Earl Watson sees the challenge presented to him and finds a way to contain the young Hornet PG.

Obviously, this is a game the Sonics should win. They're at home and the Hornets are struggling, and that usually means a win. However, Allen's absence is the X factor - can the Sonics group together and play better, or will they use Ray's injury as a cop-out for a lack of intensity?

I see the Sonics winning - 105-94.

The X Factor

Our good friend Eric Neel from ESPN (the man Nussbaum once berated for his "Steve Nash for MVP" article) is working on a story about the Sonics 40th Anniversary, and has kindly asked us to share our most personal (and often times painful) Sonics memories. This is the first in a series of articles about how the Sonics have effected us over the years. Feel free to add your own tales of Sonics pride and/or despair in the comments. -PM

As the rumors continue to swirl about a Rashard Lewis deal, today marks the anniversary of a trade that sent a Sonics legend and Seattle icon packing. On December 7th, 1990, the Seattle Supersonics sent Xavier McDaniel to the Phoenix Suns.

The trade, of course, turned out to be one of the best in team history, netting the Supes Eddie "not the child molester" Johnson and two first-round draft picks for an unstable player who was clearly past his prime. At the time, however, it was a dagger in the heart of the few Sonics fans left following the team in those bleak post-Lenny, pre-Karl years. X was the soul of the Sonics &mdash the antithesis of the squeaky-clean era of Magic and Bird. The one cool thing about an otherwise crappy team.

We all have our own favorite X-man moments. His spectacular rookie year (in which he was robbed of the Rookie of the Year award by Patrick Ewing, who was injured most of the year). His thundering dunk against the Showtime Lakers in the '87 Western Conference Finals. Choking Wes Mathews.

One of my favorite X-man memories, strangely enough, was after he left Seattle. In 1992, X was with the Knicks, taking on Chicago in the playoffs. The Bulls were at the start of their dynasty and Jordan was at the peak of his untouchableness. Did this intimidate X? Maybe this picture will tell you. X didn't back down to anyone, even His Airness.

To this day, when I see Ray Allen, I still think "How dare he wear number 34. Doesn't he know whose jersey that is?" That's how crazy I am about X.

And the Sonics traded him.

Painful trades, though, have always been part of the re-building process in sports, and the Sonics have been no exception. Trading Gary Payton helped build the miracle team of 2004. Trading Slick Watts helped build the '79 Championship team. Trading Jack Sikma cleared the way for the Chambers/Ellis/McDaniel years. And X-man's exodus ushered in arguably the greatest era in Sonics history &mdash the gold-rush years of Payton and Kemp.

It's just too bad X wasn't around to enjoy it.

Ridnour Review

Luke Ridnour’s biggest failing in the eyes of Sonics fans has always been his defense. Everybody loves Frodo’s ability to penetrate, hit the occasional jumper, and generally be his free-flowing Oregon self. It’s his inability to keep other people from doing the same thing that’s been his downfall as a Sonic.

How has he been in that phase of his game this year? Is he improving, or do the Sonics need Earl Watson to come out of his funk to ensure they have any chance of contending for a playoff spot in 2007?

First, Luke’s had a much greater impact on the offense than he has in the past, which gives him some extra leeway for whatever defensive shortcomings he possesses. So far, the Sonics score an extra 10 points per 48 minutes with Luke in the lineup than without, compared to an extra 2 points last year. Obviously, a bulk of that is due to Watson’s horrific performance relative to last season, but Luke has to get some of the credit.

But what about defensively? Again, the numbers are much better than last year – even better than his offensive improvement. Whereas last year the Sonics allowed 6 more points with Luke than without him, this year opponents score 3.6 fewer points per 48 minutes with Ridnour on the floor.

The numbers carry over in almost all phases of the game. Opponents have a lower eFG%, lower rebounding rates, fewer assisted field goals, and commit more turnovers when Luke’s on the floor.

Obviously, this is somewhat due to the fact that Ridnour is on the floor with the 1st unit more than in the past, as he averages an extra 2 minutes a game over last season. But the fact the Sonics allow seven fewer points (107 vs 100) with him on the court this year is a remarkable accomplishment.

Add in his improved FG% (from 41 to 48), increased points (11.5 to 14.9), and improved 3-point shooting (29 to 42), and it looks like Ridnour may indeed be a point guard worthy of keeping around.

In fact, compared to other PGs, Ridnour is quickly becoming one of the upper echelon points in the NBA. His 3-point percentage ranks 5th, he’s 10th in 2-point percentage, 12th in steals per game, and 9th in offensive rebounds per game.

Maybe the easiest way to look at Ridnour’s defensive improvement is the PER for opposing point guards. Last year, Luke’s opponents were at 19.0 PER, clocking in with 9 assists per game and a 51% eFG. This year, the PER is down to 16.2, assists are down to 6.8, and eFG% is at 46 – huge drops across the board.

The increased minutes have negatively affected some aspects of his game (I’m wondering if his FT% will increase to career levels, or if it’s tougher for him to hit the shots when he’s more winded than usual), but it seems that the question is no longer who should be Seattle’s starting point guard, but rather, should Luke Ridnour be on the all-star team?

Bizarro World

Remember the episode of Seinfeld where all the characters were backwards; George was suave, Elaine was neurotic, etc., etc. Well, last night was a Bizarro World Sonics game.

One team shot 23 3's, one team shot 8.

One team had 44 boards, one team had 28.

One team had 6 guys in double-figures, one team had 3.

Oddly enough, it was the Sonics who took fewer 3's, rebounded better, and featured balanced scoring. Naturally, it took an injury to their best player to accomplish those feats, but it was a great win nonetheless. Damien Wilkins had himself the kind of night we've been expecting for 2 1/2 years - 10 points, 8 boards, 4 assists, all in a mere 23 minutes.

But, to me, the best part of the win was seeing Rashard Lewis take over as the leader. For a long time, we've questioned Lewis' ability to be THE MAN on a team as he's always seemed like a second-banana, Scottie Pippen type player.

But maybe we're wrong, maybe Rashard IS capable of being the guy, he's just never had the opportunity. We often forget how young Rashard is, and how long it takes some guys to grow into their height and get used to the league. I'm not saying the Sonics should deal Ray Allen this weekend, but the idea of Rashard Lewis as team leader doesn't look so bad.

Vote for Jelly Belly

If you follow the sports world a little too in-depth, no doubt you’ve heard about the Vote for Rory phenomenon in the hockey world.

Rory Fitzpatrick, an anonymous defenseman for the Vancouver Canucks, has drawn more than 30,000 votes as a write-in candidate for the NHL All-Star game – all due to a website created by some goofy Canuck fan(s). By posting his appeal on message boards, and receiving publicity from places like deadspin.com, it has gotten to the point where Fitzpatrick – who has yet to register a goal or an assist this season – is now in the top 15 for defensemen.

Well, I’d like to take that attitude to the hoops world. My write-in candidate? One Mr. Mickaël Gelabale. The rookie forward from France doesn’t deserve to play in the all-star game, but since when did that mean anything?

Herewith, five reasons to vote for Mickaël Gelabale:

1. Best hair in the NBA – bar none.
2. He's the best player in NBA history from Guadeloupe.
3. He doesn’t just have game, he has “French game.”
4. He could kick Tony Parker’s butt.
5. He has an umlaut in his first name.

So, Sonic Nation, do your part. Go to the all-star ballot page, swing down towards the bottom, click on the write-in section, scroll down to Gelabale, and VOTE!

French Sonic Nation, put down your baguettes and help out!

German Sonic Nation, quit marveling at your Christian Welp poster and vote!

True Hoop, HoopsHype, all you big-time websites, do your part to spread the word.

Our goal is not to get Gelabale into the starting lineup, but merely to get his name in the top ten. If only we can frustrate one copy editor, then we’ll have done our part.

Roy Smalley and Ray Allen

Back in the early 1990s, George Will burst onto the baseball book scene with the hilariously titled “Men At Work.” It detailed how Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken, Orel Hershiser, and Tony LaRussa go about their business, and while it was overly fawning of the main characters, contained some above-average reading material.

One section in particular stayed with me. Will was a fan of the Cubs as a kid, and the Cubs’ shortstop in those days was one Roy Smalley (senior, not junior). Smalley was a dismal hitter, yet Will vividly recalled the team’s announcers talking about how Smalley was “due for a hit.” Will argued that Smalley was never due – that he was just a bad hitter and wasn’t due for anything beyond a strikeout.

Bill James took up this argument in a different form, in regard to people “breaking out of slumps” in one of his annual abstracts in the 1980s. James’ argument was that even if someone goes 4-for-5 after weeks of 0-for-4s, it doesn’t mean he’s going to run off a streak of multi-hit games. It just meant he went 4-for-5 today.

Why am I bringing up all of this on a website devoted to the Sonics? Because there seems to be some sort of idea that Ray Allen has broken out of his 3-point slump because of his stellar 4th-quarter performance on Saturday against the Jazz.

After 3 quarters of play on Saturday, Sugar Ray was all of 2-for-9 from the field – flat-out lousy. Of course, in the final quarter he caught fire, nailing 4 of 6 from beyond the arc.

Does that mean anything, though? Why does one good quarter outweigh 3 lousy ones – or about 30 lousy ones if you count the previous half-dozen games? Is it just our desire for the universe to become orderly, for the sun to rise in the west and Ray Allen to shoot lights-out?

I’m sorry, but the last time Ray went 4-for-9 from long-distance he followed it up by hitting 10 of his next 46, the very slump he’s supposed to have emerged from in Salt Lake City.

I’m not an idiot – I know Ray Allen’s a borderline superstar and quite possibly the best shooter in the game. But something’s wrong with his stroke this year, and whether it’s the new ball, poor health, or jock itch is anybody’s guess.

Just don’t expect me to believe all is better because of what happened in the course of 10 minutes in Utah.

Nate Speaks

It's not every day you get a chance to hear an NBA coach speak only, and when that NBA coach is the most beloved player in Sonic history, it's worth a read. Ian Thomsen of si.com has a great Q&A with Nate McMillan on the website that goes into racism, the national perception of the Blazers, a quick bit on Nate's time in Seattle (and I do mean quick), and plenty else. Check it out.

Sonics (Phew) Win!

Was I the only one who sensed a somewhat frenzied, close-to-playoff atmosphere in the 4th quarter last night? Living in Vancouver, I was lucky enough to catch the 4th on tv last night (on Fox Sports Indiana, "Your Home for Pacers basketball and not much else!"), and the back and forth, every possession is crucial style was very exciting.

Of course, I live in Canada, and anything non-hockey related kind of gets my motor started, so who knows.

Anyways, Luke's clutch 3 and even clutcher (?) runner in the lane sealed the deal. And, his 2 non-clutch missed FTs with seconds remaining almost sealed it in the other direction. Regardless, I came away with the following from the game:

1. Mickael Gelabale DEFINITELY needs more playing time. The hair is good enough, but when you add in his energy, it's a no-brainer. See ya, Damien.

2. Earl Watson is becoming as important to the Sonics as the price of whiskey in Salt Lake City. Even in the 4th, it seemed he had nothing to do with the offense.

3. Seattle ran the clock down to zero way too many times in the 4th, resulting in craptacular heaves to beat the buzzer.

4. Fantastic offensive rebounding performance down the stretch. I can't count how many times Seattle kept possessions alive with clutch boards.

5. Rashard Lewis needs to take it stronger to the hole. I noticed two instances (one Clark Kellogg noticed as well) where Lewis went for the fey, avoiding contact move, rather than going up against Jermaine O'Neal and drawing a foul/dunking.

Well, enough of that rambling. What were the thoughts out there on the game last night?

Court Case

It looks as though the NBA's zero-tolerance policy on complaints to officials may be going out the window. NBA Union boss Billy Hunter filed two unfair labor practice charges Friday against the NBA re the new ball and the league's crackdown on player complaints.

Normally, you'd read something like this and say, "So what?" Except that in this instance, Hunter actually has a strong leg to stand on, in that the league never consulted with the union on the rule change, as it is obligated to under the current bargaining agreement.

I'd imagine the end result would be Stern & Co. backing off a bit on the no protest front, and allowing some more leeway to players. As for the new ball, I'm highly skeptical of anything changing, in that it would be a massive egg in the face of the league if they're forced to abandon something like this in mid-stream.

On a completely unrelated matter, Elton Brand is co-producer of Werner Herzog's new film, "Rescue Dawn," as well as 3 other films. According to Herzog, Brand was "the most reliable investor in the whole thing." (courtesy of Harper's Magazine, December issue).

I don't know how many film geeks read this site (with the exception of Paul, that is), but I'm sure they'd appreciate the utter surrealness of that last paragraph.