Predicting Chris Wilcox

Back in the 1980s, when the Seahawks were the kings of Seattle, I remember a reporter asking Chuck Knox, why there were so few good tight ends in the NFL. The coach’s response was classic Knox – terse, and to the point: “They’re all power forwards in the NBA.”

The taciturn one made a good point, in that power forwards and tight ends are very similar physically – tall, strong, fast, powerful. Heck, if you fit all those qualifications, would you rather average 20 points a game in a “non-contact” sport, or catch 3 balls a week while being besieged by maniacal linebackers? Not exactly a tough call, there.

Anyways, to my point, in a way Sonic power forward Chris Wilcox has some similarities to former Seahawk tight end Jerramy Stevens. I don’t mean off the field, that would be an insult to Wilcox, but rather on the field. Both are immensely gifted physically, both were picked in the first round because of their potential, both attended successful big-time college programs ... and both have been disappointments in their pro careers.

Last season, though, Wilcox demonstrated that his stellar stint the previous spring was not a mirage as he averaged career highs in points, rebounds, and assists. Of course, it helps when you average a career-high in minutes, but even his per 40 minute numbers were pretty much at or above his career numbers.

So what’s going to happen to the former Terrapin this season? (Speaking of which, Wilcox makes it four Sonics with ties to Maryland, joining Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Delonte West. Odd.). Well, after five seasons in the league, I think it’s safe to say that we know what we’re getting with Chris Wilcox. Other than a fluky two-month span in Seattle in 2006, Wilcox has shot between 51.4% and 52.9% from the field, made 6.7 field goals per 40 minutes, averaged about 7 defensive boards per 40, 1.5 assists, a steal, .75 blocks, a couple of turnovers, and a few fantastic dunks.

There are a few mitigating factors for his production this year, however.

1) Minutes. With Durant and Green on board, and with Robert Swift taking some center minutes away from Nick Collison, Wilcox will likely see his minutes decline from 31.5 to around 28 or 29.

2) Shot attempts. It’s possible that Wilcox will get more attempts this year, as Allen and Lewis won’t be around to hog the ... err, lead the offense. There are about 35 shots a night missing from the lineup this season with Allen/Lewis gone, and even if Durant takes 20 a night, that still leaves plenty for everyone else to divvy up. Figure that Wilcox’ drop in minutes will be matched by an increase in looks. At the very least, he won’t have to stand around waiting for Allen to come off of screens 4 trips out of 5.

3) Free throws. Wilcox boosted his FTA/48 quite a bit last season, and hopefully that’s a trend that continues into the coming season.

That’s about it for analysis. Wilcox – for as frustrating as he’s been as a pro – has actually been pretty consistent, so it’s not difficult to guess what he’s going to do this season, assuming Sam Presti doesn’t deal him away mid-season. Where does it all leave us? Here’s how I figure it, on a per-game basis.

29 minutes, 13 points, 6.5 rebounds

And that’s Chris Wilcox, a 25-year-old power forward who will throw up the odd 25/15 to get you excited, then follow it up with a week’s worth of 11/4s to drench you in the cold water of reality. And considering his lack of interest in playing defense, and the Sonics’ revived interest in same, this season may be our last chance to see him in action.

Durant, Collison Dropped from Team USA

USA Basketball will not include Sonic teammates Kevin Durant or Nick Collison, as the pair were cut from the roster after practice on Monday.

Coach K explained to the press that the decision-makers felt the team needed more perimeter offense, but that Collison's ability to come as close as he did to making the team was remarkable considering the limited amount of time he spent with the team.

As a Sonic fan, it's just mildly disappointing. In reality, nobody cares all that much about the upcoming games, and while it would be nice to have Durant and/or Collison on the roster, it's not as if it makes any difference for the upcoming season. As I said before, this was a no-lose proposition for the Sonics; if either player made the team, he would benefit from the exposure to the elite of the NBA and if they were cut, both would benefit from the time off before the grueling season begins.

Did Donaghy doom the Sonics boom?

"Psst! What's the over-under on the Bulls game?"

ESPN reported on Friday that disgraced former ref Tim Donaghy might name up to twenty other refs that fixed games.

With this startling new announcement, I was reminded of a great Art Thiel article from a couple of weeks ago, where he wrote about a close loss for the Sonics last year that Donaghy officiated.

Coupled with the Robert Swift Conspiracy Theory, it makes you wonder how close the Sonics were to not completely sucking last year.

It also brings up the Big Question. That is, what effect, if any, will this have on the Sonics leaving town? Will Stern step in to avoid another embarrassment, or will the Donaghy Disgrace-o-rama overshadow everything else so much that no one even notices the moving vans packing up Lenny Wilkens' wheelchair and the stuffed corpse of the Wheedle?

Nick Collison: King Bad-ass for a Day

Who says Nick Collison is soft around the rim?

During practice with the Select Team on Saturday, "Crusher" Collison let loose a dunk straight from Lovetron, bringing down the rim, and some of his teammates.

"I was hoping coach would say, 'Hey, practice is cancelled.' That's the first thing that came to my mind," Lebron James said afterwards. "The second thing is 'I hope he didn't shoot a jumper and the basket fell.'"

Read all about here.

(Thanks to Joe Newell for the tip!)

Jeff Green Speaks

USA Basketball.com has a brief Q&A with Sonic rookie Jeff Green on their site. It's the typical, not-much-information piece you might expect, but there was one interesting quote:

"On Seattle’s summer league team it was just Kevin (Durant) and me. The other guys were rotating and trying to make a squad."

Paging Mr. Mickael Gelabale or Mr. Johan Petro, Mr. Mickael Gelabale or Mr. Johan Petro, please answer the white courtesy phone ...

Big, Red and Scary: The Return of Robert Swift

Robert Swift working his way back from the brink (insert cheesy 80's montage here).

This morning's P.I. reports on the coming resurrection of our seven-foot Sonics-savior, Robert Swift.

Apparently through hours of weight-lifting and high-level doses of AC-DC, Swift has transformed himself from a painfully awkward nerd, blessed only with the gift of freakish height, to a 280-pound, tattooed bad-ass that could make the Undertaker soil his tights.

So the re-birth of the Great White Hope should pretty much guarantee the Sonics a playoff spot next year, right?

After all, according to former Sonics coach Bob Hill and others, the absence of "Continental Drift" Swift from the line-up last year doomed the team from the start, and was the single biggest reason for the abyss of awfulness that was the 2006-2007 season.

Right.

While the glimpse of potential we saw at the end of '05-'06 was intriguing, last year's team needed a lot more than Rich King on steroids to save it. They had two mediocre point guards who spent most of the season bitching and sniping like rejects from America's Top Model. They had the Invisible Man looking like Spencer Haywood one night, then disappearing into the mist the next. The lone highlight was a one-dimensional superstar (but what a dimension it was!) who could pile up points but had the defensive strength of a girl scout cookie.

But Robert Swift would have put them in the playoffs!

And what if he did? What if the Big Red Wall could have been the difference on defense that the Sonics desperately needed last year? What if it helped raise the team from pathetic to passable, launching the Sonics into a respectable first round loss in the playoffs? What would the Sonics have gained? Or, more importantly, what would they have lost?

How about Kevin Durant?

As painful as last season was, it did help set the team up for perhaps their greatest draft pick ever. A lanky superstar who could shoot like Ray Allen, block shots like Shawn Kemp, and play with the passion of Gary Payton. The Über-Sonic.

And if Swift had played last year, Durant might be in Atlanta.

Swifty could very well help the Sonics make the playoffs this season, but for his non-play last year, he might be the ultimate MVP.

Bosh Out; Collison In?

With Chris Bosh out of action with plantar fasciitis, Nick Collison has suddenly become a viable big-man option for Team USA.

In fact, with the roster now down to 15 guys (14, if you don't count JJ Redick), here are the PF/C options for Team USA:

Amare Stoudemire
Tyson Chandler
Dwight Howard
Carmelo Anthony

I suppose you could throw in Durant as a possibility at the 4, but I don't think he'll be playing there, if he even makes the team at all. 12 guys will make the team, and here are the nine automatics, in my mind:

Anthony, Billups, Kobe, Chandler, Howard, LBJ, Kidd, Stoudemire, Deron Williams

That leaves these five folks competing for three spots:

Collison, Durant, Mike Miller, Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince

Team USA is already loaded at small forward, so Miller is a long-shot, although his outside shooting would come in handy; it's possible that Miller/Redd will get one spot, and Prince, Durant, and Collison will compete for the other two. Of those three, Prince is the most valuable for his defense on multiple positions, Durant would be a nice piece to aid in his development down the road for Team USA, and Collison gets the edge for being able to play 4 or 5.

It all depends on how many big men Coach K wants to have with him. But if you look at it from a fouls to give perspective, it makes alot of sense to have an extra big guy in case Amare gets into foul trouble.

Bottom line? I think Collison's chances of playing against Brazil just got a whole lot better.

El Capitan

With Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis gone to new pastures this season, the obvious choices for Sonic captain have gone with them. It begs the question: Who will be the team captain this year?

The best player on the team - Kevin Durant - can't even order a drink at a bar (unless he comes to Vancouver, that is), so I'm guessing he's out, as is fellow rookie Jeff Green.

Johan Petro? No, merci. Mickael Gelabale? Great hair, but no. Wally Szczerbiak? Well, you'd like your captain to be able to, you know, play more 30 games before blowing an ankle, so Wally's out. Chris Wilcox? I doubt he'd be interested and you kind of get the feeling that Wilcox is always a bad game away from Benoit Benjamin territory. Damien Wilkins? He's got the captain-type attitude and is a stand-up guy, but he lacks the minutes or veteran presence. Delonte West is too fresh on the scene to merit the honor. I won't mention Mo Sene, and Robert Swift's got plenty of other things to worry about this year, so cross them both off the list.

That leaves four candidates - Kurt Thomas, Earl Watson, Luke Ridnour, and Nick Collison. Personally, I think that nominating either Watson or Ridnour is a decision fraught with peril because of the way it would anger the other one, so eliminate the both of them.

Which means Thomas and Collison are the only two legitimate options. Here are the reasons pro/con for both:

THOMAS
PRO: Tougher than a well-done steak at Denny's, knows all the referees in the league (and their middle names), respected throughout the league, extensive experience.
CON: New to the club, might be a one-year wonder in Seattle, limited playing time.

COLLISON
PRO: Team USA experience, young-and-improving player, great attitude, aggressive player, doesn't hide from challenges, been with the team for a few years and may be around for years to come.
CON: Not a great player, makes plenty of mistakes (i.e., fouls), has ups and downs, likely won't be a starter (although Thomas may not, either), doesn't have Thomas' league-wide respect.

Weighing all the options, I'm siding with Kurt Thomas, at least for this season, with perhaps Nick as an "assistant captain." Feel free to add your insults in the comments.

Dowdell en France? Oui!

I hope Zabian Dowdell worked in a few French classes while at Virginia Tech, because the Unofficial Favorite Undrafted Player of supersonicsoul.com will be suiting up for Nancy of the Pro A League this year.

For those who don't know, Nancy (city motto: Non inultus premor, "No one touches me with impunity") is located about 4 hours east of Paris, or just 2 hours south of Luxembourg, in case Zabian is in need of visiting the world's only sovereign Grand Duchy. Hey, some people are into that sort of thing, okay?

As always, we wish Dowdell the best of luck in Nancy. Let's hope he's able to parlay any success in Europe into an NBA contract in the future.

In other summer league invitee news, Julius Hodge has signed with Cimberio Varese of the Italian League.

Wilkins Gives Back

What do Ludacris, Kevin Durant, and Ray Allen all have in common?

They're all going to be at a free hip hop concert in Atlanta, which will benefit the community and bring a positive focus. "The Ludacris & Friends, Strength in Numbers Concert" is also being done in association with The Damien Wilkins Foundation (ahh, the reader says, now it makes sense!).

Rashard Lewis will also make an appearance, and Danny Fortson is expected to be there as well, because, you know, they've always got free grub at these things. What Da Fort doesn't know is that he's going to have to pay to get in.

The event takes place on Sunday, September 2 in Atlanta. Other performers include Chingy, Ne-Yo, and Shareefa. Kenny G was invited but was unable to attend due to a bar mitzvah conflict.

Sonics Add A Voice

The Sonics announced a replacement for David Locke on Tuesday, naming former Clipper, Maverick, and Hornet man Matt Pinto to handle the radio play-by-play duties.

In addition to his NBA experience Pinto has also broadcast University of Hawaii men’s sports, Boston College basketball, Brown University football, Hawaii Islanders and Pawtucket Red Sox AAA baseball. Which is good, because if the Sonics break out into a football scrimmage during one of the games, we'll be covered. Or, if (God forbid), Dave Neihaus and Steve Raible decide they want to finally admit that they love each and shack up in Vancouver as "life partners," well, Seattle will still be covered for radio duties on its other pro sports teams.

It's unknown if the Sonics will continue with having Kevin Calabro call radio games when there is no tv coverage, which they did last year, or if KC will get the night off when the tv is dark. It's worth noting that while working for the Clips, Pinto would step aside for Ralph Lawler when LA's game was not televised.

Team USA Selects Collison For Select Team

I've gone from being baffled to understanding this process to being utterly baffled (again) in the span of a week and half. It started out with me thinking Nick Collison was on the Select Team that will scrimmage Team USA in the run-up to the FIBA tournament in Las Vegas.

Then, I thought he was going to be a member of the Team USA because, well, it was reported at ESPN and everywhere else via an AP story.

Now, Steve Carp of the Vegas Review-Journal says that Collison will be on the Select Team after all. Here's what he wrote:

"USA Basketball still is finalizing the roster of NBA players that will scrimmage the national team. Several players already have committed to what is being called the NBA Select team, including Nick Collison, Monta Ellis, David Lee, Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson and Jason Kapono."

It appears that LaMarcus Aldridge and Monta Ellis are off the Select Team because of injuries, which may be why Collison is headed for that club, rather than Team USA, which is the team that the Select Team plays, because they're not the Team USA, because ...

Oh, I give up.

Somebody explain to me how this means we're going to finally beat Puerto Rico?