Friday, May 23

Fun With Charts

Thought I would put together a demonstration of how Kevin Durant fared this season, on a month by month basis. The first chart lists his numbers on a per 36 minute basis.













The second chart shows his percentages from the field.

Some quick observations:

-Durant greatly enhanced his game by laying off the 3-pointers after the first couple months of the season.

-While there was not a consistent rise in production over the course of the season, it can be argued correctly that he was definitely a better player at the end of the season than at the beginning. In that respect, PJ Carlesimo and his staff deserve recognition. Could he have played better? Yes. Was it a waste of time to completely stick him at SG the entire season with only minimal time at SF? Also yes.

Thursday, May 22

15 Years Ago Today

May 22, 1993. Sonics 103-Houston 100, Game 7, Western Conference Semifinals.

Looking at that boxscore, the first item that reaches out and grabs me by the collar is the Sonics' bench for that game:

Eddie Johnson
Nate McMillan
Dana Barros
Michael Cage

Why does that grab my attention, you ask? Because all four of those reserves would start for this year's team, and it wouldn't even be a question.

To help remember the game, enjoy this bit of nostalgia, as Ricky Pierce attempts to completely fold his body in half while preparing for his free throws.

Gary Payton of Poultry

After watching this long-forgotten ad for the Sonics I wondered, in what universe was this ever a high-quality production?

Snarky superiority of modern technology aside, it does make you long for those days when slapping anything up there with a Sonics logo was good enough to work. Bonus points for the "Ticket Packages from $60."

Pinching Pennies

We all know Clay Bennett will be in a bit of a bind for the next couple of years if the city wins its lawsuit against the team. Attendance will resemble early 80s Mariner games, and even the lousiest team Sam Presti can assemble will still cost upwards of $45 million a year.

So, here are some tips for Mr. Bennett on how to save a few bucks in the next 24 months, because, as you know, we're all about helping a fella out when he's on hard times:

1. Scrap radio broadcasts in favor of text messaging.

2. Have television broadcasts “Re-Create” road games in a Seattle studio using sound props.

3. Eliminate advertising budget. Oops, forgot, already did that last year.

4. Replace per diem for players with sack lunches.

5. Trade players with longer-term contracts for short-term ones, regardless of talent. Wait, did that last year, too.

6. Eliminate green and gold jerseys and just go with gray for both home and away to cut down on laundry costs. Check with Chico Bail Bonds for sponsorship possibilities on new jerseys.

7. Trade this year’s first-rounders for first-rounders next year. Continue process until team has moved to OKC.

8. Replace Gatorade on bench with tap water with yellow food coloring.

9. See if Presti will fit into the Squatch outfit.

10. Look into applying for federal school lunch program funds to replace concessions.

11. Ask your wife for some more money.

Wednesday, May 21

Broadening the Scope

For the next month we’ll hear plenty of talk about who the Sonics should take with the #4 pick in the 2008 draft.

And, I’ll admit, on first blush, I was convinced Seattle should take Jerryd Bayless or OJ Mayo with the pick because getting a new point guard was essential to the team’s success.

You see, after 20 years of rooting for this team I’ve grown accustomed to hoping that their off-season moves will catapult them to a new level in the upcoming season. That’s the way it works as a fan – you expect your team to make moves to produce more wins in the year(s) to come.

But that’s not the case with this team because here’s the cold and honest truth: Barring some unforeseen changes in the cosmos, the Seattle Sonics are not going to be contending for a playoff spot next year, and most likely not the year after, either.

That kind of takes the urgency away from getting a point guard this year, doesn’t it? In fact, rather than “In It to Win It,” perhaps next year’s slogan could be “In It to Get Some More Picks.”

So, rather than looking to fill immediate needs, the Sonics should instead take a hard look at the roster and ask this question: “Who among this Baker’s Dozen of players will be with us when we make a playoff run?”

Personally, I can see two or three – Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Nick Collison.

That’s it. One small forward, one small/power forward, and one power forward/center. In my estimation, everything else is as free and open as a land rush into the Louisiana Territory circa 1806. Meaning, therefore, center, power forward, shooting guard, and point guard are all possibilities in this draft.

Sure, getting Derrick Rose to ride shotgun along Durant fills a gaping hole in the team’s roster, but what difference would it have made in the team’s outlook for the 2008-09 season? From 20 wins to 25? From 25 to 30? Does it really matter?

Of course not. So, rather than just focusing on Jerryd Bayless and OJ Mayo, widen your scope to include Kevin Love (actually, forget him, unless you think the next Dave Cowens is what the Sonics need), Brook Lopez, Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph, or even the possibility of trading down to get either yet another first rounder.

In most cases, in most years, teams look to throw a drafted player into a specific need, like repairing one chink in a broken dam. In Seattle’s case, though, that dam has more holes than the Bush Administration’s Foreign Policy, and not of the holes is more important than any other.

Tuesday, May 20

Sonics Lottery: We're number 4!



Let the speculation begin.

The Sonics, one year removed from having two of the top five picks in the draft, will have the 4th pick in this year's draft, as announced at the lottery selection this evening in New Jersey.

Seattle had a 38.7% chance of getting one of the top two picks, but instead fell to number four, the lowest possible slot they could have occupied. Among the likely possibilities for the team are:

Brook Lopez
OJ Mayo
Jerryd Bayless
Eric Gordon
DeAndre Jordan
Anyone not named Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley

Man, that just blows. It's not enough that Seattle fans had to suffer through a season of complete ineptitude, but now we lose a shot at getting one of the two preeminent players in the draft.
If you care, Chicago-Miami-Minnesota went 1-2-3. And somewhere in Memphis, Michael Heisley just wondered what the hell he has to do get a good draft choice.

Re-Seedings

There was plenty of talk about re-working the seedings for the NBA playoffs this season, especially due to the overwhelming power of the Western Conference. It reached the point that even His Royal Highness David Stern threw his two cents in and admitted the league was considering revamping the settings in the offseason.

Personally, I always thought it was ridiculous. If you’re going to re-seed the playoffs, why even bother having conferences? Why not just have a 30-team league with no conferences or divisions?

As a small bit of evidence of why it is foolish to throw out the existing system, here is a one small bit of statistical evidence. One – and, mind you, just one – way of measuring a team’s effectiveness is to look at the number of points they score per 100 possessions, and the number of points they allow per 100 possessions. This allows for a team’s pace in a way that pure PPG cannot. Herewith, the top seven teams in the differential between points scored and allowed per 100 possessions:

1. Boston, 11.3
2. Detroit, 8.5
3. Lakers, 7.5
4. Utah, 7.3
5. New Orleans, 5.8
6. Orlando, 5.8
7. San Antonio, 5.4


So, in essence, the three best teams are right where they are supposed to be. Honestly, the only team I can see that has a legitimate gripe about re-seeding the playoffs is the Jazz, who were forced to overtake the Lakers, rather than the Magic or another Eastern Conference team. (And, honestly, I’m not about to go back and re-seed the playoffs to see who the Jazz “should” have faced in the 2nd round; if you’ve got that sort of time on your hands, by all means, let me know).

What does it all mean, then? To my way of thinking, it means this: The current system, while not perfect, seems to deliver what it is supposed to – the four best teams in the league are playing for the right to play in the Finals in two weeks.

What more do you want than that?

(B)Lotto


(image from A View From the Cheap Seats)

So, tonight's the night. The Sonics find out whether they will be able to land Derrick Rose (please, please, please), or someone else.

The pessimist in me sees the Sonics falling to #4 and taking OJ Majo, only to find out that he's wanted for some crime in West Virginia and will have to play with an ankle bracelet for his first two seasons. Or, they take Danilo Gallinari so that they can have three small forwards, all drafted in the top five of the draft.

But let's be sensible. Assume the Sonics get the #4 pick (the most likely option based on probability) and Derrick Rose is off the table. Who do you take with that pick? Mayo is certainly a possibility, as is Brook Lopez from Stanford or Jerryd Bayless from Arizona.

Personally, I'd hold my nose and take Lopez, assuming Beasley, Rose, and Bayless are 1-2-3. He's got good size and strength and has a good touch from the line. It worries me that a guy 7' and 260 shot less than 50% from the field in college, and extrapolating that figure to the NBA worries me even more. Still, he, along with Mayo, would probably be the most likely options for the Sonics at #4. And, if OJ Mayo is your toughest competition, you're probably going to win that battle.

However, there is another option - if the Sonics don't get one of the top two picks, they could parlay their pick (say it's #4) in combination with the #24 pick and/or multiple second-round picks to move up to the top two. To me, it's a no-brainer - Derrick Rose fits a need for this team more than any other player in the draft. The #24 pick is going to be a risk anyways, as are the second-rounders, and giving up multiple risks for a singular certainty is always a smart move in my book.

Friday, May 16

ROSTER SPOTS

As we continue through the pre-draft phase of the off-season, let’s take a look at the roster under contract for the upcoming season.

Under Contract
Ridnour
Wilcox
Watson
Collison
Marshall
Durant
Green
Wilkins (assuming he will take his option)
Sene
Griffin
Petro

Hypotheticals
#2 pick
#24 pick

That’s a total of 13, not including who the Sonics stumble across in the second round (and with four picks, there will be plenty of people to stumble across). Now, let’s eliminate a couple of players, just purely on speculation.

Luke Ridnour: I feel that it is very likely that Ridnour will be dealt this summer. It’s clear he doesn’t fit into the team’s long-range plans and he still has value in the league, although his contract is not exactly commensurate with that talent.

Earl Watson: Watson seems to be on the good side of the Sonic management, and his production this year was definitely improved over previous seasons. EW posted career-best marks in field goals made, FG%, FT%, and 2nd-best numbers in 3-point percentage, true shooting %, turnover %, assists/36, and points/36. Looking closer at the numbers, though, and it becomes readily apparent that Earl sacrificed defensive effectiveness for offensive productivity. He put up the 2nd-best offensive rating of his career this season, but balanced that with his worst-ever defensive rating. Still, only nine players (Nash, Paul, D Williams, Kidd, Calderon, Ford, and Jamaal Tinsley) posted better assists/36 minutes in the entire league last year, and that came on a team with absolutely no outside shooting. If I’m the Sonics I’m hoping Derrick Rose falls into my lap so Watson can come off the bench.

Chris Wilcox: Many suspect Wilcox will be traded this summer, but I think the wise move would be to wait until next February. While Big Weezy has been more inconsistent than not, he knows a big paycheck could be waiting for him he puts forth the effort over the next twelve months. Combine his soon-to-be-expiring contract with his ability to post numbers like 18 points/8 boards/2 flashy dunks, Wilcox could fetch something much nicer in return next winter than he will this summer.

Johan Petro: Another likely to be dealt, if only for his continuing ability to be 7’ tall. He showed some signs of life after the Kurt Thomas trade, but I can’t imagine Sam Presti envisages the Sonics utilizing JoPet too much in the next few years.

Mo Sene: Sadly, it’s possible the entire ’08-’09 season will be a write-off for Sene due to injury.

So, for argument’s sake, let’s say the Sonics are able to deal away Petro and Ridnour, perhaps in combination with one or two second-round picks, returning them an awful contract, or a surplus big man on another roster (or both!). That leaves us with 13 players minus 3 (including Sene here) plus 1 (the returning player), for a total of 11 roster members. If you add in two players from the second round, that makes 13 roster members.

Let’s say the Sonics take Rose at #2 and an off guard at #24, now your depth chart looks something like this:

PG: Rose, Watson
SG: Pick #24, Wilkins
SF: Durant, Green, Griffin
PF: Wilcox, Marshall
C: Collison, Mystery Contract

You have some flexibility with the 2/3/4 positions, but there is clearly a void at center (sound familiar, Sonic fans?). So much of a void that it might make sense for the Sonics to explore a big man with their multiple second-rounders, if not their 2nd pick in the first round.

In articles to come, we’ll start looking at possible veteran free agents the Sonics might pursue this off-season, but this at least gives us a road map for the year to come. Feel free to chime in with where/how I went wrong in the comments.

Thursday, May 15

Comfortably Numb

Two nights ago, I watched an engrossing PBS film concerning a tragic series of events high on Mt. Everest a decade ago, the same story which Jon Krakauer famously profiled in his book “Into Thin Air,” as well as a successful IMAX movie and countless other accounts.

David Breashears’ film (he also helmed the IMAX production) is a gripping tale of how a number of men and women lost their lives due to a number of reasons. The agony in watching guide Rob Hall speak to his wife for the last time, trapped 28,000 feet up on the mountain, knowing that it is the last time he’ll speak to her – well, it’s moving stuff.

Perhaps the best-known story of those days on Everest in the Spring of 1996 is that of Beck Weathers, a climber who was left for dead not once, but twice, but who managed to persevere and make it back down the mountain.

At one point in the documentary, Weathers explains how he made it through the night out in the open on one of the most inhospitable places on earth, with howling winds pounding his body, snow falling all around, and no tent to provide shelter.

The pain must have been excruciating, but eventually, Weathers tells us, it went away. In his inimitable Texas drawl, the pathologist describes how all the parts of his body which could feel pain – his hands, his feet, his nose – became dead tissue, incapable of sending messages to his brain that they were in agony.

At that point, Weathers somehow managed to stand up and stagger back to the tents, and, eventually, to rescue.

If you’re wondering what this has to do with a Sonics’ blog, and, by this point, surely you must, here it is. After two years of enduring Clay Bennett’s empty promises and David Stern’s condescension, two long, frustrating, agonizing years, the pain is gone.

There have been more than a few gallons of ink spilled (or is it bytes wasted?) decrying the rather sloppy tactics of Oklahoma City in trying to procure the Sonics, and, honestly, four months ago, it would have bothered me as well, and it would have been easy to dash off a diatribe about how awful the city was for its shenanigans.

But I can’t conjure up the pain any more, I just can’t. Smarter men than me will write books about this saga, with wise insights into how events unfolded, but, at this point, I can’t do it.

Writers such as Barry Trammel of the Daily Oklahoman can continue to issue their opinions about why Oklahoma City deserves the Sonics and Seattle doesn’t, and it doesn’t register with me. The same paper can put Kevin Durant in a “Barons” jersey and it doesn’t phase me.

Obviously, I’m more than a casual fan of the Sonics, but I have finally reached a level of fatigue in this situation – and what I’m going through can’t even begin to compare with the frustration and fatigue of such people as Brian Robinson or Steve Pyeatt.

In an odd way, though, the numbing feeling is liberating, in the same way that Weathers’ numbness to the pain liberated him. Instead of wasting energy caring what Oklahoma City, Clay Bennett, or David Stern are saying, I can just care about the Sonics, which is a delightful turn of events.

This June, or possibly early July, Federal District Court Judge Marsha Pechman will hand down her verdict in the case of City of Seattle v. Professional Basketball Club LLC, and, in so doing, will bring an end to a crucial chapter in this unending story. Like the rest of the Sonics Nation, I’m hoping for the best: that Pechman will rule for the city, and precipitate negotiations eventually resulting in the team being turned over to Steve Ballmer’s group.

If not? Well, let’s just say I’m already feeling no pain.

Wednesday, May 14

Sellers Finds New Market

If you’re like me, you’ve often wondered how to effectively generate new business opportunities in Warrensville Heights, Ohio.

And it was while researching “The Friendly City” that I discovered that Brad Sellers, who plied his trade in Seattle for only half of the 1989-90 season as part of a 4-team, 6-year NBA career, is the Community Liaison Director for the Economic Development Department.

My opening paragraphs come across as snide, but that’s where the sarcasm ends. Normally, our “Where Are They Now?” pieces focus on the travails of former Sonics (see: Threatt, Sedale and Barros, Dana). Sellers, however, has taken it upon himself to give something back to the town in which he was raised, and not the give something back which entails showing up at photo opportunities at neighborhood parks, quickly followed by hopping in an SUV and heading back home before the scissors have finished cutting the ribbon.

Brad Sellers is not golfing every day as he anticipated in retirement, but is, instead, mired in the day-to-day tedium of municipal affairs of a small town 20 minutes from downtown Cleveland. Whether it’s helping to build a $5 million apartment building for seniors or receiving a $1 million grant for neighborhood transportation planning projects, Sellers has put his energy into making his hometown a better place to live, so that other kids might enjoy the life he’s enjoyed.

It is thankless, tedious, and, quite frankly, boring to preside and attend meeting after meeting, with progress measured not in wins and losses but in words and amendments. It is the life of a city official, and it is a life to which few of us aspire.

Sellers could be forgiven for forgetting anyone ever mentioned the idea to him of serving as a Director with his hometown’s Economic Development Department. After all, who chooses that title as a follow-up on their resume to Professional Basketball Player? Still, as he says during this speech, “It is our job to set the table and set the standards for people to follow.”

100 years from now, no one will remember what Brad Sellers did as a basketball player, any more than they will remember what Dale Ellis or Xavier McDaniel or Shawn Kemp did – that’s the transience of fame. But if Brad Sellers can help revitalize a city in northern Ohio, and, in so doing, improve the future of thousands of children, what he did as a basketball player will pale in comparison to what he did as a human being.

Still Groovin' After All These Years

I know a Sonic fan's favorite playoff memory should be of a championship, or of a fantastic shot that wins the game in the dying moments, but my favorite playoff memory is just Sam Perkins.

Not any shot, not any moment in particular, but just the way he always seemed to contribute a three whenever the Sonics needed one, especially back in the spring of 1993 when it seemed as though the Sonics were the best team in basketball.

The problem with rooting for players is that their personal lives are often a shambles, and their off-court actions erode your fervor for them.

Fortunately, for every Shawn Kemp, there's a Sam Perkins. And, for further evidence of why Sam Perkins is quite possibly the coolest former Seattle Supersonic, watch this video.