Tuesday, December 6

Game Night: Knicks

In a way, statistics are to writers as voters are to politicians. So long as they are needed, they receive attention. But when they aren’t needed, well, you know the story.

The reason I bring this up is the utter disappearance from Seattle newspapers of the “Sonic defense stinks” story during the course of the recent 3-game winning streak. You would think from reading the pieces in the paper that – after about a week of stories regarding the woeful state of Seattle’s defense this year – that Weiss & Co. had resolved that irritating problem.

Well, yes and no. Prior to the win streak, I wrote a piece claiming that by allowing opponents to shoot 49% the Sonics had no chance at winning. Want to know what the Sonics have allowed during the past 3 games?

48.4%.

And now the yes. What I also noticed was how the Sonics have improved their perimeter defense. In the 3 losses before the win streak, opponents shot 20 for 41 from 3-point range, nearly 50%, a ridiculously high number. In the 3 wins, that has dropped to 20 for 61, a more normal 33%. Is it luck? Is it the law of averages? Is it improved defense? I have no idea, but it makes a heck of a big difference when the other team hits only 33% beyond the arc. 50% of 20 3’s is 30 points, a nine-point difference over 33%. That nine points is the difference – as Pacino’s character says in Any Given Sunday – between winning and losing, between living and dying.

Anyway, the Sonics play the Knicks tonight. In addition to being Retro Night, it’s also Hefty Bag night, so bring your garbage ban and waive it in support of Jerome James. The Knicks are also rumored to be in the Kevin Garnett sweepstakes, prompting one “ESPN Insider” to bet that he’d be in MSG by February. An interesting thought, especially considering the glut of bad moves that Isaiah Thomas has made in his career.

In any event, the Knicks have rebounded from their atrocious 2-7 start, going 3-4 in their past 7 games. Still, New York is all of 2-8 on the road this year, and I can’t expect they’ll add to that win column tonight.

The Knicks play a slow-down type game, as indicated by their 93 points a game and opponent FG% of less than 45. They also like to pound the ball inside (59% of their shots come off of jumpers, compared to 72% for Seattle), which could pose a problem with Seattle’s poor interior defenders. Take special note of rookie Channing Frye, the guy I said the Sonics should stay a country mile away from, who is now a candidate for Rookie of the Year (do I know my draft picks or what?). Frye’s +/- on the season is an astounding +23.5 and he has proven to be adept scorer and, surprise, rebounder.

However, with Seattle’s recent run of improved energy, I like the Sonics’ chances. Best of all, Da Fort is apparently healthy enough to go, which means there’s gonna be some rumblin’ going on.

Here’s my guess: Sonics 98 – Knicks 87.

11 comments:

Lance Uppercut said...

I thought and mentioned the same thing at http://blazersbasketball.blogspot.com about Channing Frye. Being that the guy's shoulders look like a wire coathanger, I would have thought for sure that he'd get abused in the NBA, but I also thought that the Blazers should have drafted Kirk Snyder instead of Telfair. How did a team with Frye, Salim, and Igudala not win the Final Four? Am I commenting too much?

Anonymous said...

Lets see if they put Cleaves in tonight. I have no clue why they havent played him the past 3 games, before thathis numbers were awesome.

Anonymous said...

Because we won the last 3 games?

Zachary Geballe said...

And because Flip Murray is kicking ass

Nuss said...

I'd pay good money to get a transcript of what was going through Ridnour's mind during the 4th quarter of the Cleveland game, when Flip played all 12 minutes.

"Okay, it's five minutes in, so I should start getting ready now."

"Allright, Sonics up by 5, 7 minutes left, it's looking like Frodo time, baby!"

"I guess coach is saving me for the last 5 minutes."

"Um ... coach?"

"What the f*&@!"

b_con said...

I bet he was thinking about how much he loves Baby Jesus.

b_con said...

You guys really need to see this stuff. The Miami Heat article is too good, and the Sonics one is about the Sonics, so come on!

http://www.mcsweeneys.net/links/nba/heat.html

b_con said...

Oh man, sorry about the overcommenting, but this Jerome James quote on Swifty is just too good. There is an entire article on him on ESPN.com if you want the rest.

JJ on returning to Seattle: "This is actually a sad occasion. It's bittersweet. I am happy to be in this situation, but I miss Ray, Rashard, Flip, Reggie, Cleaves, Luke, Nick, everybody. I wish I could have been here to help Robert Swift out a little more. He looks like he needs it."

Anonymous said...

" I wish I could have been here to help Robert Swift out a little more. He looks like he needs it."

look whos talking he could use a little work himself.

b_con said...

He pretty much abused Swift enough in those 3 minutes at the end of the second half to last a lifetime though.

Mr. F said...

Last night on whatever ESPN NBA show I was watching they talked a bit about how much Ridnour is being exposed on defense this year, especially against bigger gaurds.

We really miss AD.