Friday, December 1

Jamaal Magloire: Yay or Nay?

Future Seattle Supersonic Jamaal Magloire?

You’ve no doubt read that Jamaal (“The Other Canadian”) Magloire is on the outs in Portland these days, and the Blazers may be inclined to deal him. As fans of a team with a dearth of talent at center, does it make sense for the Sonics to inquire about a 6’11” former all-star in the last year of his contract?

Yes and no. Here’s a brief rundown on the positives and negatives to getting Magloire.

NEGATIVES
1. Attitude. Magloire is working on his 3rd team in 3 years, and it would shift to 4 if he’s dealt. That’s never a good sign.
2. Poor foul shooter. This might be a fluke thing, but for the past 2 seasons Magloire has been abysmal. Like I said, it could be just a fluke, as he was solid at the start of his career and decent at Kentucky.
3. Not a great passer, when compared to Collison. Also has a higher turnover rate.
4. Makes $8.5 million this year
5. Not an especially agile defender.

POSITIVES
1. Gets to the line often (6.3/game for career/40 minutes), especially in relation to Collison (3.2) or Petro (don’t ask).
2. Playoff experience. He’s not Sam Perkins, but he has played 36 playoff games. To some people, that matters.
3. Solid defensive rebounder; again, his numbers are vastly superior to Collison. 4. Decent shot-blocker. Not as good as he was at the start of his career, but capable of blocking at least a shot a game if given 30 minutes.
5. Not especially foul-prone. This is something of big importance; both Collison and Petro attract fouls like Britney Spears attracts bad publicity. Magloire’s ability to stay out of foul trouble enables him to stay on the court longer, and keeps opponents from getting to the bonus so quickly.
6. Contract expires at the end of the season.

I look at it from this perspective – the Sonics are one decent offensive player away from contending for a playoff spot. Allen, Ridnour, Lewis, and Wilcox aren’t going anywhere, and who knows if/when Wilcox will ever figure out a way to get 15 points a night. That leaves the center position as the best way to add points.

Petro is not going to take this team to the playoffs at this stage in his career; if anything, he’s going to be a hindrance. Collison is inconsistent, and while his peripheral game is nice, he has way too many bad games to be a starter in this league.

Magloire is not a long-term solution for the Sonics, but he doesn’t have to be. He needs to keep the center spot warm for one season until Petro develops, and Swift gets healthy.

In my mind, putting Magloire on this team adds instant offense and catapults Seattle to a chance for the playoffs, a chance which is non-existent at the moment.

Here's how it could work: Deal Danny Fortson and another piece (Wilks, the Greek guy, or Desmon Farmer) to the Blazers for Magloire. If Seattle has to throw in a 2nd-round pick, so be it. The Blazers save some money, get a guy (Fortson) who they can hold onto and wait for his contract to expire, or deal away. Plus, they shed somebody who will start squawking because he's not getting minutes.

If Bennett and the Sonics’ new ownership is serious about keeping this team in town, they need to do something to create excitement. A 38-win team with no chance at the playoffs is not exciting. A 45-win team that makes it as a 7th-seed and a decent chance for a 1st-round upset is.

What do we have to lose?

~~~~~

Tack this to your wall and wait a couple of months for it to ripen:

" I'm not going to look over anybody's shoulder. I don't think that's right. I think when you hire someone to do a job, let them do it. But they know that I'm there, I'm available. I can help them in any way."

Lenny Wilkens, on Rick Sund and Bob Hill

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Magliore is an above average defender of his own man but does not show a statistical impact on overall team defense. His block rate is modest, only slightly higher than Petro. His rebounding rate is good at Collison/Wilcox level.

I don't think he really offers anything notable on offense.

I doubt Magliore is actually available for scraps. especially scraps from us. They may well trade him but will try to do so to upgrade themseleves. They havent thrown in the towel on this season and their big situation is not bad the way it is.

If they actually offered him to us for that level of scraps I'd probably take him, not being attached to the scraps. If they can't find a better alternative out there.

If they want to push for the playoffs this year, I dont think the Sonics can stand pat and expect to succeed.

Magliore probably drift on somewhere else nezt summer of his own choosing but the possibility of him staying put and a current Potapenko, L Wright salary level of $2.5- 3 million is something that has to be factored in.
That might be worth having even beyond this year utility.

Anonymous said...

Wow having Lenny as a coach would be a complete resurrection of this team. This man has proven he's one of the top coaches of all time over and over again. It's certainly great news for Seattle if he takes the head coach position.

nuss said...

I agree with the first comment, in that Magloire won't necessarily be available for scraps. It's possible the Sonics could work a deal involving Damien Wilkins, Fortson & Magloire. It's unfortunate the Blazers have no need of a PG, because this would be a great opportunity to send Earl Watson.

It's true that his rebound rate is similar to Collison/Wilcox, but it's also true that he has to play alongside Zach Randolph, which has to negatively affect his rebounds. Prior to this season, he was consistently at 17 or 18 in rebound rating, as opposed to Collison at 14 or 15. Plus, I'm guessing - purely guessing - that he'll be more consistent than Collison. The Sonics need someone who will give them 10 and 10 or 8 and 8 every night, not someone who will give them 14 and 12 one night and 3 and 2 the next (a la Collison).

Anonymous said...

You are right Magliore was stronger as a rebounder in previous seasons. But I am not sure it is because of Randolph. M has played with strong rebounders before. How much is being in a new situation and maybe not being totally happy about it, how much is age, etc. is had to say.

You'd need strong positive detailed reports from the scouts to spend any significant assets to get him.

Might be useful to ask Magliore at x price versus Zendon Hamilton for the minimum. I'd probably try the later right now and then if I am still not satisified try something else in 2 weeks.

Anonymous said...

My bad. I thought he must be 30. I usually check first but now I see he is 28, just past the typical peak around 27.

Really his per 48 minutes havent changed much. Could he still play close to 30 minutes if you wanted him too? He has been close to that only twice this year but that might say more about Nate than Magliore. Last year he did it half the time and delivered that double double you want.

In some ways he make be a great "real world" target to acquire now. He is a veteran and put up good individual stats for his position but really has no buzz, in fact may have negative buzz but he is still relatively young, isnt clearly declining i dont think (but havent watched closely), and might not draw a lot of offers next summer. Somebody will probably offer him a Mohammed level deal.

Would the Sonics pay that for a veteran big to be a part of the center committee? They have in the past and are still doing so with Fortson without much to show for it. If not, dont acquire for anything more than the one year rental scenario. Doubt Nate craves Wilkins. They may want a 1st round draft pick and filler. That would probably be too much.

Some other option out there might be better. Hope Sund is working hard on the calls. I have never been able to judge his level of effor tbehind the scenes. I hope it is good but am not certain it is as high as I'd think it should be.

nuss said...

The fact Magloire's deal expires at the end of this season is what makes him a good acquisition, in my mind. He's perfect as a one-year rental, because you're pretty sure you know what you're going to get with him.

It all depends on what the Blazers want in return. Worst-case, the Sonics work a 3-way deal with another team and get Magloire that way.

ryan said...

I can't see the Blazers giving up Magloire and only getting Fortson in return (or Fortson and Wilks, etc.). Maybe if the Sonics throw in a couple of 2nd-round picks, but even then, I don't see it.

Seattle needs to throw in something the Blazers need. I don't follow Portland that closely to know what they're missing.

Anonymous said...

Magliore, as you note, had a lower rate of fouling in Milwaukee and New Orleans but it has gone up some in then leser wining environment of Portland. Significant difference between Magliore past and Collison/Petro here and now but much less difference between Portland Magliore and these Sonics. Magliore in Seattle would have a chance to reduce fouling but some of it is because of porous perimeter defense and the bigs either foul or allow the score and Sonics get hurt either way.

If perimeter stays Ridnour/Allen/Lewis the team is likely to remain a bottom ten defensive team Even in 04-05 they were 25th. They won in large measure due they were composed and effective in the final 5 minutes with everybody sticking to the roles (i.e. letting Ray and Rashard shoot most of the shots then but included the space creating outside shooting Radmanovic and the get to the line or finish a tough take in the paint when nothing else was available Daniels that made us a tough team matchup.)

Anonymous said...

Sund should inquire about Magliore, Foster, Haywood, etc.

You are right it all comes down to price.
External trade talk can be amusing but without knowing bid/offer prices it is hard to guess what has a chance of working.

No trades yet around the league since season start. I get the impression the league prefers the action concentrated in February much as it went last year. Preferring that teams dont blow up product early and hurt early ticket sales. Trades in Febrauary may help ticket sales the rest of the way or at least by then it is probably to late to hurt them.

Anonymous said...

Sund should inquire about Magliore, Foster, Haywood, etc.

You are right it all comes down to price.
External trade talk can be amusing but without knowing bid/offer prices it is hard to guess what has a chance of working.

No trades yet around the league since season start. I get the impression the league prefers the action concentrated in February much as it went last year. Preferring that teams dont blow up product early and hurt early ticket sales. Trades in Febrauary may help ticket sales the rest of the way or at least by then it is probably to late to hurt them.

Anonymous said...

Sorry for the double post.

Good site.

Anonymous said...

Another lazy player, just what the Sonics need. At least the greek dude has some desire.

ryan said...

How about this possibility:
To Seattle:
Zaza Pachulia
Speedy Claxton

To Atlanta:
Earl Watson
Danny Fortson

The Hawks get an expiring contract (Fortson) and a better PG, and the Sonics get an above-average center.

Anonymous said...

I'd like that but Atlanta would not want that deal.

If the Sonics wanted Zaza they should have pursued him when he was a free agent (I expressed interest in such a move at the time) and then maybe used one of the recent draft picks on something else other than a center. Atlanta's pick up of Zaza was a very good move and I assume they will do everything possible to keep him long term when his modest price deal ends.

ryan said...

It's a long shot, you're right. The Sonics could go after Lorenzen Wright, though, who's not getting many minutes for the Hawks. Wright's a strong rebounder and decent offensive player. Seattle could send Watson, the Greek guy, and a pick for Wright and Tyronn Lue/Speedy Claxton.

Anonymous said...

Zaza isnt great but he seems competent and can give long minutes and seems durable and steady headed. His defense of centers was average to a little better right from the start of his career and is currently showing nicely above average this year. Not as good defending against more talented PFs but still pretty close to average and gives you flexibility to slide him in a rotation with others.

He is an example of what the Sonics hope Swift or Petro can become.

Anonymous said...

Wright was available last summer too. If the Sonics wanted him they should have gone after him then and beat the best offer which wasnt that high $3 mil a year. Again I think it is too late. He is performing the role Atlanta had in mind for him . I dont think the Sonics want to give up any 1st round picks unless they get a very good player. Wright was that but a 1st would probably be considered too steep now at almost 31, by Sund. A GM desperate to make playoffs this year might, but so far I dont see any signs Sund will behave that way. He'd have to do it this month or it will be too late to save this season. He hasnt pulled trigger on an early season trade since being here. Everything in Feb. or off season.

nuss said...

I like the Wright idea, especially because it's more likely the Hawks would move him than Zaza. Not sure what Wright's contract length is, but if it's a one-year, he'd fit in nicely for this season

Anonymous said...

Swift injury couldnt have been anticipated of course but having veteran big insurance is standard practice. I doubt they really expected a serviceable season from Fortson. Moore was cheap but not good enough.

Wright might have been better where they needed it on D. His individual D is about average but maybe he has a large help value because Team defense with him on court is way better than him off for Atlanta. Positive on/off defensive impact in Memphis too but not as strong because rest of team was more competent.

Seems like Sonics management overestimated speed of our young centers learning curve with Sikma instruction. Or thought they could win always. Wrong either way. Almost no team that makes playoffs uses bigs under 25 years old unless they are a lottery young big playing well.

Anonymous said...

Swift injury couldnt have been anticipated of course but having veteran big insurance is standard practice. I doubt they really expected a serviceable season from Fortson. Moore was cheap but not good enough.

Wright might have been better where they needed it on D. His individual D is about average but maybe he has a large help value because Team defense with him on court is way better than him off for Atlanta. Positive on/off defensive impact in Memphis too but not as strong because rest of team was more competent.

Seems like Sonics management overestimated speed of our young centers learning curve with Sikma instruction. Or thought they could win always. Wrong either way. Almost no team that makes playoffs uses bigs under 25 years old unless they are a lottery young big playing well.

Paul Merrill said...

I love all the comments, but please give yourself a name(s) people! Anons are sooooo six months ago.

Anonymous said...

Sorry again, browser is acting up.

Wright contract- 2 years (thru next season) at about $6.5 million total.
If he were available at a reasonable price I'd support a deal for him.
With Atlanta aiming for first playoffs in long time though I think they keep him as long as they are on that track.

Anonymous said...

Anon is lazy default. I dont particularly want to register at the moment but maybe later. TK

nuss said...

I think Atlanta knows that Tyronn Lue and Speedy Claxton aren't the answer for a playoff team - you've got to have a defensive point guard, unless you're planning on scoring 110 points a night (even when the Sonics did well in the playoffs, it was with AD playing point A LOT in the 4th quarter). Watson would be a big help to them, and since he wants out so badly, I'd hope Seattle would be willing to do it.

The side bonus is that getting rid of a disgruntled guy always helps the team. You can't tell me that Ridnour isn't sick of hearing about how he doesn't deserve his job...

Anonymous said...

82 games has an article showing Magliore in bottom 20 in league on +/- so far this year.
http://www.nbcsports.com/nba/501280/detail.html

Of course it is unadjusted.

TK

andrew said...

Is there any better way to waste 45 minutes than by speculating about trades? I wonder if Rick Sund ever sits in his office with realgm.com and just starts screwing around with ridiculous moves.

"Hey, if we send Danny Fortson, Earl Watson, Damien Wilkins and 9 first round picks to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett, it would work! Somebody wake McHale up and get him on the phone!"

Anonymous said...

Claxton was a little better than average defender last year and has been fine on that this year. I guess he isnt healthy and his offense sucks so far but I dont know the details. TK

Anonymous said...

Walker and Cho years ago according to an old media story had some I believe Microsoft programmers create software to go beyond what you can manually do with real GM trade checker to instead produce a super long list of all possible trades with a given asset or assets. It is a good way to see a non-obvious trade and have plenty of things to try to sell over the phone with other GMs. Maybe that helped identify the Payton/Allen blockbuster or other trades.
I dont know if Sund liked to rely on it or still uses it. I assume it is probably still there as much as he wants it. But he seems more old school, do it yourself rather than personally wanting to expand tech or fancy stat work.
Dean Oliver moved on to Denver. From some comments he's made dont think he found Sund or Hill especially receptive to new methods.

TK

Anonymous said...

Rashard Lewis 9th best +/- in the league.

Extension? Seems worthwhile. But is it too late to get him to accept it now before next summer?

TK

nuss said...

I remember when Oliver came on board during the Sonics' big run 2 years ago, we heard all sorts of comments about how the Sonics were using his statistical analysis to win games, and how that (partially) explained the team's meteoric rise in the standings.

Didn't hear anything last year about statistical analysis, or this year either.

Anonymous said...

It was understandable early enthusiasm and perhaps justified though only he and a few folks know the sum contents of what he was asked to study and what his advice was and where it was followed and not followed and what the results were. I picked up that Weiss and then presumably Hill werent as receptive to even listening to another advisor as Nate halfway allowed.

From his own comments we were told that he suggested the Sonics in the 05 playoffs against Spurs, having difficulty getting off the 3 pt shot, to take advantage of the in between game. Maybe that was the only thing left to do but that was exactly what the Spurs wanted and they eventually closed the series out. I might have fought harder to get the 3pt off. Perhaps more drives all the way to the hole to try to loosen that up would have helped more than tough for almost everybody, worst shot on the court according to a 82games study of points produced per shot, midrange shots. But the Spurs were a superior team and the defeat was honorable.

But Oliver is a sharp, hard working guy with another opportunity in Denver and I wish him well with that. Any team
should have that kind of insight available to the coach and GM. I am not sure if anyone has directly replaced that yet in the Sonics organization.

Maybe with time, Kevin Pelton can field some similar type questions, file some reports as either they see a need or he does and is permitted to do so. He is sharp too.

TK

nuss said...

I wasn't knocking Oliver, just found it funny that we heard quite a bit about him when the team was doing well, then nothing afterwards.

I chalk it up to the media - and the rest of us - not understanding why the Sonics played so well that year. It didn't make any sense, since they hadn't acquired any big-name talent ... so it has to be some trick, right? I guess Oliver fit the bill as a "trick."

In reality, the Sonics had fate smile upon that year, and received great performances from a number of guys at important times (Fortson in the fall/winter, JJ in the playoffs, AD all year, Radman from time to time).

Anonymous said...

I hear ya. It would be hard for anyone associated not to be pumped up by that year and feel good about their contribution and then shocked by the next year. It was a great coincidence of many things, including Nate reaching his coaching maturity and doing it his way (lowering pace, using Daniels late, spacing with Radmanovic before everyone had figure that out, mixing tough bigs with the shooting perimeter guys in the starting line, the strong rebounding edge, the toughness issue of other teams not knowing hard James, Forston or Evans were going to hit if they came in the lane, etc.)

TK